Even the best case scenario in the coronavirus forecast presented to the government: 2-4 weeks could turn critical

According to data received by Delfi, the government has a forecast that Lithuania should exceed the average of 300 cases per day in less than two weeks.

The reservation of beds will be reached in 2-4 weeks.

The forecast is optimistic. It also indicates how soon the reserve of hospital beds for coronavirus patients will be replenished.

“Historically, around 8% of us have been hospitalized. Confirmed positive cases and stayed in hospitals for an average of about 10 days, so we will reach our reserve of Covid-19 beds in 2-4 weeks depending on the growth scenario” , shows the forecast.

Aurelijus Veryga confirmed that the Ministry of Health has received that forecast. As stated in your written comment, SAM is aware of this data.

As S. Skvernelis announced on Monday, 57 percent were already busy in Lithuania at the beginning of the week. beds for the treatment of patients with Covid-19. According to A. Veryga in his comment, Lithuania is preparing for such a situation, among the possible options, both the reduction of planned health services and the installation of new outpatient hospitals.

“If that happens, we will reach 70%. (instead of 100% but 70%) of the crib bed load, the scenario of having to install more beds elsewhere will kick in immediately. We have planned such scenarios. Furthermore, as already mentioned, if this happens, it could mean a reduction in scheduled services or the installation of new outpatient hospitals. So we are preparing for all possible scenarios, we realistically assess the situation and the latest data not only in Lithuania, but also abroad, ”explained A. Veryga.

Urge beds to be made as soon as possible

In turn, the director of the Center for Communicable Diseases and AIDS, who was a candidate in the elections with the Social Democrats, prof. Saulius Čaplinskas is convinced that filling the reserve of beds for Covid-19 patients would only show that no tasks were done during the quarantine in the spring.

“Unfortunately, due to the increasing number of cases, this is not surprising. This is a logical and regular spread of this disease. The second thing, if the bed reserve is to be reached, it means that no lessons have been learned from Covid-19 during the quarantine. The quarantine was necessary for this to prepare us for these various scenarios. First of all, for the worst case scenario, because it was immediately clear that the virus would take root in the human population and that it would spread, “he said S. Čaplinskas.

According to him, if this was not done, these actions should be taken now and as soon as possible to secure the required number of beds.

“Because there are already many beds in Lithuanian hospitals in the European Union. If we see that there are not enough Covid beds, then we need more. (…) Maybe we can simply refine them ”, said the interlocutor.

S. Čaplinskas also criticized the speeches that the provision of planned services can be resumed in health institutions. According to him, analyzes already carried out in some countries already show that during the first wave of the pandemic, excessive mortality from other diseases increased. He also saw such signs in Lithuania.

“What difference does it make to a person who dies, either from Covid or from a heart attack, because he will not receive help because he is afraid of the coronavirus or because of ‘covid’ he will simply close the health system? That is the point, it was It is necessary to prepare for it, ”said the epidemiologist.

Long waits of up to 300 daily averages can be lost

Rolanda Lingienė, head of the Vilnius Department of the National Center for Public Health, had no doubt that Lithuania could soon reach an average of 300 new cases per day.

“The average of 300 is small and must be achieved. It is difficult to predict when and if there will be, but we see no reason for the number of cases to stabilize or stop,” said R. Lingienė.

According to the specialist, many asymptomatic cases are registered, infecting others without feeling any signs of the disease and this is epidemiologically very unfavorable.

“Another thing, so far we have tried to keep life as free as possible and so far there are very few restrictions of this type. The third thing is that society is very relaxed and does not support that necessary discipline, concentration and does not show solidarity with doctors and specialists in public health ”, said R. Lingienė.

That no measure or restriction will be effective until there is public support, S. Čaplinskas also said. According to him, the current situation, when some people no longer want to disclose their contacts, even some members of the medical staff refuse to test for coronavirus, shows that during the first wave “the stick was bent.”

“It is a mistake to think that we can do something only with prohibitions, punishments or coercion. If people do not adopt these new rules of conduct, there will be no desired effect. (…) It has long been clear that the measures that are now in place vigor is not enough to control the spread. (…) Now the most important thing is not to overheat the health system and everything, ”said S. Čaplinskas.

The director of ULAC is convinced that the human resources of hospitals must now be considered. The interviewee wondered why all Lithuanian doctors, who may have had contact with an infected person or have an asymptomatic form, remain isolated in Lithuania.

“In several countries, even doctors who are infected but asymptomatic feel fine, they continue to work. Just take the right steps to protect: 1) the patient, a colleague 2) their family members, ”said S. Čaplinskas.

Increase the number of hospitalized patients

According to R. Lingienė, the increasing number of Covid-19 patients who need hospital care is currently being recorded. As of Tuesday, there were 232 of these individuals treated for coronavirus in hospitals.

“There is a real increase,” he said. He attributed this to the overall increasing number of infections.

However, according to A. Veryga, the aforementioned forecasts may not necessarily come true. According to him, decisions about managing a pandemic are made on the basis of the current situation.

“They (the forecasts – Delphi) are theoretical, but they are. It can be anything and it cannot be. Therefore, we do everything possible to control the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the country. To this end, New tools are constantly being introduced to control the spread of this virus, evaluating the most recent real situation ”, says A. Veryga.

As an example, the Minister presented a proposal to divide all Lithuanian municipalities into green, yellow and red zones. Read HERE which criteria municipalities can use to obtain them.

In addition, there were forecasts that 10,000 people will die in Lithuania. people, there were predictions from mathematicians that they would get much more, etc. Scientists are based on mathematical models, and SAM, which offers solutions with epidemiologists, is based on the real situation and tries to maintain the capacity of the health system ”, says A. Veryga.

Offer without leaving home

In a written comment, the Minister of Health assured that even if the scientists’ predictions came true, Lithuania would not introduce such a strict quarantine as in the spring.

“The virus is already more familiar, we know how to control its spread. Also, people have not yet recovered emotionally after the spring quarantine, so it is important to do everything very carefully, ”commented A. Veryga.

According to S. Čaplinskas, the mere conversation about quarantine shows that spring was not prepared for an epidemic crisis. It is true that he agreed that local restrictions on life are inevitable, but they will only be effective if people follow and understand them.

“If we talk about quarantine again, it is, in my opinion, a concrete indicator that we are not ready,” said the professor.

Meanwhile, A. Veryga urged to recall the measures that helped stop the coronavirus in the spring and suggested that residents do not have to leave home unnecessarily.

“If you don’t have to go home, don’t go. It’s better to choose a safe exit from the house only if necessary, and then let’s wear masks, face protection, keep our distance, disinfect our hands, wash them with soap, avoid meetings, groupings Let’s remember what was important in the spring and stay home when it is not necessary to leave them.

I know that we are all tired of this virus, of the tension, of the number of cases. However, the important thing is that only we can stop it ”, commented the Minister of Health.