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In particular, the findings show that most infected people do not transmit the disease to their contacts, but the small number of infected people, the so-called “superdistributors”, are most responsible for the spread of COVID-19. Contrary to previous research, this one also hints that children and young adults play a very important role in transmitting the virus in their own homes.
US researchers have collaborated with public health officials in the southeastern Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh to identify routes of infection and mortality in a sample of more than half a million people. 85,000 people of all subjects had confirmed COVID-19 cases. According to the scientific journal Science, researchers found that 71 percent of those infected did not infect anything, but 60 percent of new cases were caused by only 8 percent. sick.
“When looking at the prevalence of COVID-19 both in India and probably all affected parts of the world, over-apprehended cases are the rule rather than the exception,” said study author Ramanan Laxminarayan of the Princeton Institute for the Environment.
Excluding patients by age and counting all together, the probability that a person with COVID-19 transmitted it to close contact ranged from 2.6 percent. within the community up to 9 percent. within one’s own home (family).
When looking at the prevalence of COVID-19 both in India and in all affected parts of the world, cases of over-spread are the rule rather than the exception.
The probability of transmission of the disease for high-risk contacts, that is, those who had close social contact or direct physical contact with an infected person without protective measures, is 10.7 percent.
If people with high-risk contact remain in a confined space for more than 6 hours (for example, when riding a bus), the probability of transmitting the disease can be as high as 79 percent.
However, young people and children seem to have played a particularly important role in the transmission of the virus, being “responsible” for about a third of the cases.
“In this setting, children are very effective diffusers, which has not been firmly established in previous studies,” Laxminarayan explains. “We found that illnesses and deaths were much higher in young people than we expected based on observations in higher-income countries.”
However, several limitations of this study need to be considered when evaluating it. This case study was conducted in southeastern India only, and given the country’s demographics and culture, the findings may not be directly applicable to other parts of the world. It should be noted that India has one of the youngest populations in the world, which could perhaps explain the tendency of young people to spread the virus.
Similarly, multi-generational households living together are common in India, with up to a third of all households in India living with both the elderly and the young. This could also be why young people have played such an important role in spreading the virus.
However, this is not the first study to reach such conclusions. An earlier Hong Kong contact tracing report found that only 20 percent of people with COVID-19 were responsible for 80 percent of new infections and up to 70 percent of infected people did not transmit the virus to anyone. plus.
And a case study conducted in May by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that at least 52 people had been infected in a choir rehearsal, most likely by a single supporter.
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