Budget analysis 2021: some give money for salaries and pensions, others have to tighten their belts

In 2021, it is planned to raise 11.38 billion in the state budget. 150 million euros of revenue. EUR or 1.26%. less than planned this year. The draft, approved by the government, says spending next year will be $ 15.49 billion. 271 million euros. EUR or 21.22%. more than planned this year.

The budget deficit in 2021 could reach 4.11 billion. and be equal to 5%. gross domestic product. According to the Ministry of Finance, this year the deficit should reach -8.8 percent. GDP, -2.7% in 2022 and -1.6% in 2023, when the goal of the structural balance is -1%.

In 2021, the government plans to borrow about 5.14 billion. euros. Public debt in 2021 should reach 50.2 percent. GDP, in 2022: 49.4 percent. GDP, and in 2023 – 50.3 percent. GDP.

From basic taxes – less

Real government revenue and spending in 2020 adjusted significantly for the global coronavirus pandemic. However, the government has not yet provided a summary of these changes, so next year’s revenues are compared with those approved by the Seimas.

In total, general government revenue (with funds from the European Union) is expected to grow by 531 million in 2021 and costs of 3.14 billion euros. euros.

Less revenue is expected to be raised for the state budget next year from basic taxes. The personal income tax should contribute 1,850 million. EUR (7.6% less than expected in 2020), excise duties: 1,570 million euros. (-2.3%), value added tax – 4.14 billion. EUR (-0.2%), income tax – 762 million. EUR (-11.4%).

14.3 percent Income deductions under the Forestry Law are reduced (up to € 24 million). Lottery and gambling fees will drop 5.9 percent. minus (20.7 million euros), taxes on international trade and transactions: 2.4 percent. less (120 million euros).

It is expected to collect the same amount from the real estate tax: 5.4 million. euros. A tax on vehicles (50.9 million euros or 59.8% more) and a tax on pollution (14.9 million euros or 120.2% more) could generate more revenue for the budget.

The table shows how state budget revenue might change in 2021.

The largest increase is expected from other unlisted income (+ 38%), EU financial aid funds and other international funds (+ 14.2%) and contributions to the benefits of the Bank of Lithuania (+ 8.4% ).

Shares and other accounts receivable (-82.8%), dividends and contributions to the profits of state companies (-52.7%) and interest on loans (-31.5%) may decrease further.

Will fund the DNA plan

Among the ministries, in terms of amount, the allocations for the Ministry of Education, Science and Sports will be the ones that will grow the most in 2021: 657.2 million. EUR or 49.3%, up to EUR 1 99 million. euros. Most of the increase will be used to finance salaries and actions and measures of the DNA Plan for the Future Economy.

It is followed by the Ministry of Social Security and Labor with 496.4 million. or 13.8 percent. increase. Next year, the budget of the Ministry of Social Affairs may reach 4.09 billion. The additional funds will be used to finance part of the basic pension, employer subsidies for December 2020, indexation of various benefits, child allowances, etc.

In 2021, the Ministry of Economy and Innovation should receive 441.6 million. EUR or 160.7%. plus – 716.5 million. euros. Most of the extra money goes to the DNA plan.

1,560 million are foreseen for the Ministry of Finance. EUR (279.2 million euros, an increase of 21.7%), the Ministry of Energy – 485.2 million euros. EUR (264.9 million, 120.2% more), the Ministry of Transport and Communications – EUR 1.12 billion. EUR (248.5 million, 28.5% more), the Ministry of Health: 1,110 million euros. EUR (247 million, 28.5% more), the Ministry of Agriculture – EUR 1.030 million. 72.9 million euros (7.6% more), the Ministry of the Interior – 830.1 million euros. 22.3.5 million euros (20.3 million euros, 2.5% more), Ministry of Culture. EUR (7.6 million, 3.5% more), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – EUR 88.1 million. 2.4 million euros, an increase of 2.8%).

The financing of the Ministry of National Defense will not change and will reach 1,020 million. and the amount allocated to the two ministries is decreasing. 5.1 million to the Ministry of Justice. EUR or 4%, up to 119.8 million euros. 23.6 million euros for the Ministry of the Environment. EUR or -6.5%, up to 342.3 million euros. euros.

The main reason for the decline of the Ministry of Justice is the expiration of financial support from the European Economic Area and Norway, while the Ministry of the Environment is reducing EU and co-financing.

In the table you can see how the allocations could change in other institutions and state agencies in 2021.

In 2021, the budget of the Chief Official Ethics Commission should increase further, by 56%, to 1.93 million. euros. Most of this increase (550 thousand euros) should be allocated to “Development of a Proactive Management System for Activity”.

55 percent, up to 15.4 million. Statistics Lithuania credits are expected to increase by 52% to 5.8 million euros. – National Museum of Art MK Čiurlionis, 32%, up to 1.8 million. EUR to the Institute of the Lithuanian Language, 25%, up to 460 thousand. for the Office of the Inspector of Journalistic Ethics.

It is planned to increase the salary in the Department of Statistics, the Institute of Lithuanian Language and the Office of the Inspector of Journalistic Ethics, and to modernize the M. Žilinskas Art Gallery in the MK Čiurlionis Art Museum.

At that time, the largest reductions can be expected from the Central Election Commission (-58%, up to EUR 8.3 million), the National Museum of Lithuania (-27%, up to EUR 5.6 million), the Lithuanian Center for Agricultural and Forest Sciences. 27%, up to 6 million euros), Mykolas Romeris University (-16%, up to 5.2 million euros) and Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (-13%, up to 23.3 million euros).

The decline of the CEC is determined by the fact that there will be no elections in 2021, the investment projects completed in the National Museum, the Lithuanian Center for Agricultural and Forest Sciences intends to receive contributions from other budgetary institutions and funding in universities are declining in anticipation of fewer new students.

Sodra and PSDF

Together with the state budget, the budgets of the State Social Security and the Compulsory Health Insurance Funds for next year are presented to the Seimas.

Sodra’s budget revenue in 2021 is projected to reach 5.02 billion. 129 million euros. EUR or 2.6 percent. higher than this year, and spending 5.01 billion. 462 million euros. EUR or 10%. larger. It is estimated that 14 million euros surplus.

PSDF’s budgetary income and expenses should be the same next year, at 2.37 billion. euros. Compared to 2020, they increase by 65.2 million. EUR or 2.8%.

The income and expense lines of the Sodra and PSDF budgets could change next year can be found in the tables.

The presentation of the budget proposals to the Seimas is scheduled for next week. After that, the committees and members of the Seimas will present proposals. Once the government has made the pertinent decisions on these proposals, the budget bill will be considered again and approved by the Seimas, which must approve the budget law no later than 14 calendar days before the start of the budget year.