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In the second round of elections in the largest cities of Lithuania, voters will elect 27 of their representatives in the Seimas. An interesting situation has arisen this year, in which in all districts except Šiauliai Saulė district, a candidate from the Lithuanian National Christian Democratic Union will fight against representatives of other parties.
A vote against the ruling or against the opposition?
Mindaugas Jurkynas, professor and political scientist at the Vytautas Magnus University, explains the situation when in the second round we will see a conservative candidate in almost all the constituencies, with the loyalty of the party’s voters.
“Conservative voters are loyal and disciplined enough. They come to the polls. If you look at the elections four years ago, there were also a lot of conservative candidates in the cities in the second round.
In the cities, the exit of the conservatives to the first round was even earlier. For two reasons: the first is a loyal electorate, the second is that cities tend to support more conservatives or liberals, but it is already up to the city, ”said M. Jurkynas.
However, the professor points out that in 2016. Parliamentary elections showed that at the crucial moment, voters practically paid against the Conservatives, who were unable to expand their electoral base and reached the “glass ceiling”, the threshold beyond which his supporters did not increase.
However, this year it may be such a factor that the peasants, who were the third choice between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives, gained a halo of power this year. And there is such a thing that people vote both against the government and for something new.
The big question is whether voters will vote again in the second round for something, just not for the Conservatives, or just for Karbauskis and not because of their more socially conservative restrictions, bans or policies. Maybe both will work, maybe some will not work ”, considered M. Jurkynas.
And Saulius Spurga, associate professor and political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University, has no doubt that voters hostile to the Conservatives will join forces this year to try to stop representatives of this party from celebrating victory.
“However, I think there will be a stronger voice against the conservatives. This rule, which was very effective and showed its power during the last Seimas elections, has faded, but it still works. <...> My prediction is that everyone else will unite against the conservatives, “S. Spurga told tv3.lt.
Exclusive attention to Kaunas
Kaunas has long been considered a stronghold of conservatives. However, in 2016 in the Seimas elections, the peasants managed to establish themselves there quite well, because the peasants of the seven Kaunas districts unexpectedly conquered six, and the conservatives, only one.
This year, although Conservatives in all Kaunas constituencies received more support in the first round of elections than their competitors, M. Jurkynas is reluctant to claim that the party will establish itself in the city as in the old days. According to the Vytautas Magnus University professor, the second round of the elections, and then the municipal council elections, will show whether the Conservatives will take effect in Kaunas.
At the time, S. Spurga claims that Kaunas, like other cities, has come to the need for a change, which will likely allow the Conservatives to secure more seats there.
“Apparently, this wave, which I would call the need for change, has also reached Kaunas. Kaunas is still considered a conservative base, although before there have been deviations; let’s remember the case of Šustauskas, and now Matijošaitis. But the conservative voter he’s always alive there, “said S. Spurga.
“I think somewhere, but in Kaunas, the representatives of the Conservatives have good chances in the second round and are definitely favorites,” added the associate professor of MRU.
It is interesting that during the last Seimas elections, the mayor of Kaunas Visvaldas Matijošaitis publicly expressed his support for the Lithuanian Peasants and Greens Union. And while this tactic paid off at the time, photos of the city’s mayor alongside Saul Skvernelis publicly shown this year appear to have brought little benefit.
Here, M. Jurkynas suggests recalling that V. Matijošaitis’s support for the peasants and his candidate S. Skvernelis helped little during the presidential elections last year.
“Later, the mayor of Kaunas also expressed his support for the current Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, but this did not increase the chances and he still remained third,” recalled M. Jurkynas.
And this, according to the professor, indicates that the first fiddle in voter decision-making is played by the support of truly non-authoritarian politicians.
“People probably choose first by looking at the personality or their charisma, or the lack of scandals, the idea, the innovation, the welfare state, let’s say. Then they look at the party affiliation, here perhaps more uninominal, who is such, from which party, the party is valued well or badly, “said the interlocutor.
And only last, according to M. Jurkynas, do voters take into account declared political support for one or another candidate.
“Then, people observe how others support it, whether it is a second option or not. Because people are going to vote for their party, but there is another party that is, let’s say, less bad. If the representatives of the less bad party support your candidate or vice versa, it can also affect. But this is definitely not the main factor, “said the political scientist.
What matters to voters is changing
What else is important to a voter without the charisma, ideas, or support of a politician? M. Jurkynas points out that younger voters live in a global flow of information, therefore they worry about more global issues.
Their views can be shaped not by historical memory, hostility to the occupation of the Soviet Union, Russia, but precisely as in other consolidated European democracies, when there are identity politics, moral issues, the role of the state in restrictions and support for freedom. These questions may arise.
Because we don’t live in an empty space. We live in a global world where there is global information. If we suddenly become concerned with the “issue of black lives” and take people out onto the streets, even though we don’t have that current issue, but rather sensitive questions about abusers or those who are underrepresented or stereotyped, they can also arise in Lithuania. they become relevant ”, considered the professor.
Gender equality, the inclusion of the disabled, migration, solidarity and other important issues are important for no less part of the electorate, as M. Jurkynas considers.
„[Šie klausimai] it can come to us with the new generation that lives with different information in the world of experiences ”, said M. Jurkynas.
Vilnius
The absolute biggest intrigue in the capital is in the Old Town-Žvėrynas district, where the conservative Mykolas Majauskas (who obtained 29% of the votes in the first round) and the leader of the Liberal Movement Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen (28%) will fight . It was in this constituency that M. Majauskas secured his place at Seimas four years ago.
The conservative Žygimantas Pavilionis (31%) and the representative of the Freedom Party, Tomas Vytautas Raskevičius (14%) will meet in the Naujamiestis-Naujininkai district
In the electoral district of Žirmūnai: Conservative member of the Seimas Paulė Kuzmickienė (38%) and candidate of the Freedom Party, Monika Ošmianskienė (13%).
In the Fabijoniškės district, the fight will take place between the conservative Aistė Gedvilienė (30%) and the representative of the Freedom Party, the former rector of Vilnius University Artūras Žukauskas (16.5%).
The Conservative, former adviser to President Dalia Grybauskaitė Mindaugas Lingė (29%) and the representative of the Freedom Party Morgana Danielė (15%) will meet in the Šeškinė-Šnipiškis district.
In the Justiniškės-Viršuliškės electoral district, Paulius Saudargas (30%), a member of the Seimas, a conservative, and Brigita Guobė, a representative of the Freedom Party (12%).
In the Pilaitė-Karoliniškės district, the conservative Radvilė Morkūnaitė-Mikulėnienė (30%) challenged the peasant candidate for prime minister Saulius Skverelis (14.5%).
Conservative Algis Strelčiūnas (33%) and Freedom Party candidate Donalda Meiželytė (14%) will complain in Lazdynai district.
Conservative member of Seimas Monika Navickienė (34%) and Romualda Poševeckaja (14%), candidate of the Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign – Union of Christian Families (14%).
In the district of Paneriai – Grigiškės, we will see a fight between the conservative Agnė Bilotaitė (29%) and Rita Balčiūnienė (12%), representative of the Freedom Party.
The conservative Dainius Kreivys (41%) and the representative of the Freedom Party Gediminas Jaunius (15%) fight in the district of Verkiai.
The conservative Vytautas Kernagis (30.55%) and Vytautas Mitalas (21%), a member of the Freedom Party and deputy mayor of the capital, will meet in the Pašilaičiai district.
KAUNAS
Conservative Jurgita Šiugždinienė (31%) and peasant Ligita Valalytė (16%) fight in Kaunas Šilainiai district.
In the Kalniečiai district, we will see a fight between the conservative Arvydas Anušauskas (31%) and the peasant Aušra Papirtienė (17%).
The conservative Paulius Lukševičius (23%) and the representative of the Freedom Party Marius Matijošaitis (15%) fight in the volunteer district.
Conservative Kazys Starkevičius (33%) and peasant Gediminas Vasiliauskas (16%) will face the Petrašiūnai-Gričiupis district.
The conservative Gintarė Skaistė (33%) and the peasant Aurelijus Veryga (19%) will meet in the Panemunne district.
The conservative Vytautas Juozapaitis (28%) and the peasant Karolina Žekaitė (14%) will fight in the Aleksotas-Vilijampolė district.
The conservative Gabrielius Landsbergis (38%) in the electoral district Centro-Žaliakalnis challenged the peasant candidate Audronas Jankuvienė (13%).
KLAIPEDA
In the Klaipėda Mari distrito district, we will see the fight between the peasant candidate Ligita Girskienė (23%) and Kęstutis Navickas (16%) raised by the conservatives.
The representative of the Liberal Movement Simonas Gentvilas (19.55%) and the conservative Arūnas Barbšys (17.5%) will complain in the coastal district.
The conservative candidate Arvydas Pocius (26%) and the representative of the liberal movement Saulius Budinas (14%) will compete in the Dane district.
The conservative Audrius Petrošius (22%) and the peasant candidate Mindaugas Bastakis (12.5%) will meet in the Baltic constituency.
ŠIAULIAI AND PANEVĖŽYS
Seimas member Stasys Tumėnas (21.5%) and conservative Martynas Šiurkus (17%) will fight in the Šiauliai Aušra constituency.
Domas Griškevičius, deputy mayor of Šiauliai (22 percent) and Valerijus Simulikas (19 percent), a peasant-appointed member of the Seimas, will fight in the Saulė district, where there is no conservative candidate in all the big cities.
Conservative Indiana Grigienė (19%) and peasant Deividas Labanavičius (18%) will meet in the western Panevėžys district.
Bronislovas Matelis (26 percent), a Conservative-appointed member of the Seimas, and Kęstutis Lukoševičius (15.5 percent), a peasant, will face the Conservatives in the Nevėžys constituency.
The second round of the Seimas elections will take place on October 25.
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