Latvia and Belgium see big jump in COVID-19 morbidity: Professor Laiškonis lists 3 reasons

In Latvia: an impressive jump in morbidity

Latvia, considered one of the least affected by the coronavirus in terms of morbidity, has already overtaken its neighbor Estonia (the latter has one of the lowest morbidity rates in Europe) and is catching up with Lithuania.

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reports that the incidence rate of the latter two in Latvia is currently 55.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, up from just 17 years ago. For comparison: in Lithuania this indicator is 62.9 cases, in Estonia – 46.5 per hundred thousand inhabitants.

Due to the increased incidence of the coronavirus, Latvian Prime Minister Krišjanis Karinsh intends to convene a Crisis Management Council and consider stricter measures to prevent further spread of COVID-19 in the country.

Morbidity has already exceeded 100 cases per 100,000. population and in Poland. The two-week morbidity rate here is already 109.5 cases.

The worst situation is in the Czech Republic and Belgium

The worst situation in the group of countries in the European Union (EU), the European Economic Area (EEA) and the United Kingdom (United Kingdom), according to the ECDC, is still the Czech Republic. Here, the morbidity rate is 521.5 and the mortality rate is 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants. According to this last sad indicator, the Czech Republic is also the leader in the Old Continent.

The incidence has also risen sharply to second place in Belgium. In the last two weeks, the morbidity rate is 100,000. the population here has already reached 429.5 cases.

On Monday, The Brussels Times reported that 4,000 people were confirmed daily in Belgium. new cases of coronavirus, and experts are considering the introduction of quarantine in the country.

The lowest incidence in the EU, EE and UK group is currently in Norway (34.3 cases per 100,000 population), Cyprus (38.1 cases), Finland (44.9 cases), Greece (46, 1 cases) and the aforementioned In Estonia.

Predict a peak in early December

The researchers predict that morbidity will continue to increase rapidly.

As reported by the news agency on Friday BNS, Researchers from the Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics of Vilnius University predict that the incidence of COVID-19 in Lithuania will peak in December. The highest number of confirmed weekly illnesses is said to occur in early December. Then it will reach 900 cases per week, and then the number of cases will start to decrease.

It is true that, according to the same researchers, the number of deaths from coronavirus will increase slightly.

The increase in morbidity was not surprising

To what extent are these predictions realistic and why, even in Latvia, the incidence of the coronavirus has increased in this way? We asked Alvydas Laiškonis, a licensed infectologist and physician.

The doctor is not surprised by the significant increase in the incidence of coronavirus in neighboring Latvia.

“The increase in morbidity now occurs in all European countries. There are probably no exceptions here in any country: what we have in Lithuania, we have the same in France. You have probably heard that the situation in the Czech Republic is very tragic, “said A. Laiškonis.

The professor pointed out that some people infected with coronavirus do not have any symptoms of the disease. As a result, the proportion of infected who carry the disease remains unexplained.

“The second thing is more and more in Western Europe and, by the way, we have younger people who are socially active, mobile and travel more. The National Center for Public Health also warned that the coronavirus has spread from the old risk groups to young people between 20 and 50 years old, ”said A. Laiškonis.

Another reason the coronavirus is spreading so fast now is fall, when people are more likely to be indoors than outdoors. The professor also pointed out that many people don’t protect themselves enough because they don’t believe such a disease exists at all.

“There is already a rebound in Europe and it will probably not go away for a while, as the period is approaching when, in a week or so, the flu will mix. Then it will be very difficult to separate these diseases,” said the infectologist.

The professor pointed out that already, due to the increasing incidence of the coronavirus, France is beginning to fear that there will be a shortage of places in resuscitation and intensive care units for patients with COVID-19.

France currently ranks fifth in Europe in terms of morbidity, after the Czech Republic, Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain. Here, the morbidity rate for the last two weeks has reached 299.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and is only one tenth behind Spain, which has recently led the way.

“It just came to our attention then. In those countries, the wave started earlier, but we will have the same and hospitalization will be a big problem,” said A. Laiškonis.

According to the professor, the intention expressed by the Minister of Health to reduce the self-isolation period of asymptomatic people to 10 days is logical, since according to the latest data, the most contagious people are in 7-8 days.

“Little by little, the experience accumulates and, as a result, everything is changing little by little,” noted A. Laiškonis.

When will the pandemic end?

The professor confirmed that pandemics usually escape in about two years, when the so-called herd immunity develops: about 60-70 percent of the population is infected with a viral disease. The epidemic is supposed to go away on its own, but the disease can reappear later in each season, as it did with the flu.

However, A. Laiškonis believes that the coronavirus vaccine will appear even before the pandemic breaks out on its own.

“I think that perhaps next year, more or less at the same time as now, we will have that vaccine. According to the work of several companies, some of which have already gone to the third phase, when they are testing vaccines with volunteers, it is due assume that we will have the vaccine next year ”, expected the professor.