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The National Public Health Center (NVSC) reported Saturday that a total of 205 new cases of coronavirus infection were diagnosed in the country on Friday, the highest number of cases recorded per day since the start of the pandemic.
“There are many disputes as to whether those 205 cases per day in Lithuania are the limit. Clearly, this has no limits. Actually, those figures are still very small compared to Israel, Argentina, the Czech Republic and Spain. But as winter is coming, the spread of the infection is intensifying ”, V. Kassievievičius examines the situation on Facebook.
He says that the biggest jump in new cases of COVID-19 in the European Union (EU) is in the Czech Republic: “The country has more than 10 million population and 111,000 cases of COVID-19 have already been reported. In the Czech Republic, the number of hospitalized patients for COVID-19 has increased from 200 to 1,300 in the last month, and 412 patients with COVID-19 are currently being treated in intensive care units. “
“Three and a half times smaller than the Czech Republic for Lithuania at 100 intensive care units would be a real challenge. Therefore, despite the belief of many Lithuanians that COVID-19 is no more dangerous than influenza (actually, COVID-19 infection is several times more dangerous than influenza), it all depends on the amount. of cases. When you control the situation, you can ignore those languages, more or less in a few patients in intensive care, but when control gets out of hand and a few hundred new diseases a day, everything changes fundamentally, ”warns the professor.
He writes that despite the fact that Lithuania performs many tests, a significant part of the positive PCR tests among all those tested.
“Lithuania does a lot of tests, Spain more and Israel even more, more than everyone else, but the most important indicator for us is the proportion of positive PCR tests among all those analyzed (9% in Spain, 5% in Israel, 2 % in Lithuania, In Germany – 1.3%).
In May, the WHO recommended that countries end the quarantine only when positive PCR tests within 14 days accounted for no more than 5 percent of all tests. It should be remembered that the test volumes in the world were significantly lower at that time. Later, already in the summer, many countries adhered to the principle that, ideally, positive PCR tests do not exceed 1 percent of all studies conducted.
Although it is a matter of agreement, it is bad when the proportion of positive PCR tests is as high as in Argentina (even 60 percent!) And worse when the proportion is growing rapidly, because it shows the intense spread of the infection and the need to increase testing ”, says V. .Kasiulevičius.
He emphasizes that the proportion of positive PCR tests in Lithuania is only 2 percent, but a good month ago the proportion of positive tests was only 0.8 percent.
Meanwhile, in Germany, which handles COVID-19 better, the proportion of positive PCR tests per month starts at 0.8%. increased to 1.3 percent. In Germany, the proportion of positive tests increased 1.6 times a month, in Lithuania – 2.8 times. This is logical, because the infection has spread faster in Lithuania than in Germany in the last month. It is important to ensure that the growth rate of positive PCR tests is slower than the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases in the country. The government must take into account that increasing the scope of tests in response to the increasing number of infections allows better control of the spread of the disease, ”warns the professor of medicine.
In Lithuania, a total of 5,963 cases of infection were detected, 2,751 people were recovered and 103 died.
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