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While such retaliation is inevitable, the European Union’s action may be limited to freezing assets and banning Russian officials from travel, according to a well-informed source.
The nearly completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, connecting Germany to Putin’s weak position, is likely unchanged, officials say.
Any action against security officials would have only limited impact in Moscow, although it would be “detrimental” for the Kremlin to attack the most influential government and business officials, says Ivan Timofeyev, an expert with the Kremlin’s Russian Council on International Relations.
On Tuesday, the world’s most influential chemical weapons chief discovered that Russian opponent Alexei Navalna had been poisoned by the Novičiok family of chemical weapons, leaving the European Union with no choice but to take action against Putin.
“Any use of a chemical weapon is a serious crime and cannot go unpunished. “In the coming days, there will be an urgent discussion, which will be attended by both experts from the Organization for the Insurance of Chemical Weapons and partners from the European Union, and solutions will be sought to take further steps,” said Steffen Seibert, High Representative of Merkel.
The poisoning of A. Navaln, who is recovering in Berlin, only once again recalled the history of Russian aggression, which intensified especially after the annexation of Ukraine-owned Crimea in 2014. Merkel demonstrated her personal concern for Navaln’s problem visiting a Russian opposition leader in a hospital.
German prosecutors say Russian authorities are also responsible for a cyberattack five years ago against the Bundestag and a murder in a Berlin city park in 2019 reminiscent of the crackdown on criminal gang relations. The trial in the German capital has already started.
While German officials have no doubt that the clients of Navaln’s poisoning come from the top of the Russian government, this may not be enough to persuade the country’s authorities to abandon the overly lenient approach that bothers allies like the United States. .
The Germans have promised that any action will be coordinated with the European Union, and for some reason European officials make a very clear distinction between the Navaln case and the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in 2018, which resulted in the coordinated deployment of more than 150 Russian diplomats. .
The attack on S. Skripalis was carried out on UK land, and A. Navalnas, who was seriously ill on a plane en route to Moscow, was attacked in Russia. This may be one of the reasons for the softer reaction, as officials seek to coordinate their actions down to the smallest detail and be assured that they will be legally justified.
And all this is being decided by the 27 Member States of the European Union, which have a veto on foreign policy, which means that an agreement on sanctions in this case is a more or less acceptable compromise.
Putin’s weak point?
For his part, Navaln himself asked the European Union to impose travel bans in Putin’s immediate environment and to freeze assets. The opposition has been accused by the opposition of trying to keep any Russian president in power (specifically by killing and wasting funds).
“The sanctions will not benefit the entire country. The most important thing is to close the door to those who deserve the regime and freeze their wealth. This applies to the oligarchs and high-ranking officials, closest to Putin’s environment,” Navalnas told German Bild in an interview.
Gazprom’s controversial Nord Stream project, which will double Germany’s gas emissions, is unlikely to be seen as a punishment for Putin.
The passionate debate in Berlin over whether the pipeline was worth bringing up has markedly eroded Merkel’s environment. According to the German Chancellor, possible sanctions must be decided by the entire European Union, not a bilateral issue with Berlin.
Since then, German officials have all but bid farewell to the hope that Putin will be pressured through the pipeline.
This conclusion can be drawn from the fact that Nord Stream has never caused problems for the Merkel Group, especially its younger Social Democratic partners.
Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, who rarely dares to defend himself against the chancellor, also opposes the measures against the pipeline.
Dietmar Woidke, East Brandenburg’s prime minister, said last week that Nord Stream would confuse consumers, meaning that the pipeline should not be a means of punishing Putin, because he is not the one who will suffer.
“We must do everything possible for Moscow to clarify the case of A. Navaln, there can be no unanswered questions, but I speak against the termination of this project as punishment for Putin.” We should ask ourselves what we would do without the project, “Woidke told Bloomberg News last week.
Timofeyev says the United States could opt for tougher measures, including financial restrictions, given that the Trump administration will target the ruble immediately in 2019 in response to the Skripal poisoning.
Furthermore, at the request of Merkel and others for a thorough investigation, Russia itself will now have the opportunity to take action.
Moscow says it has no evidence that Navaln has been poisoned, officials call the case a Western intelligence project and accuse the opposition of listening to instructions from the CIA. Navaln has already been released from the hospital and publicly accused Putin of dismissing the Kremlin’s accusations against him as offensive.
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