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Photo 7Runners just pour kerosene. Photo by EPA-Elta
“We call for an immediate cessation of hostilities between the relevant military forces,” said a joint statement by French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump at the House of the Elysee.
“We also call on the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to resume talks without delay,” said the leaders, whose states belong to the OSCE’s Minsk Group, which has been seeking a solution to the conflict since the 1990s.
Yesterday, the Attorney General of Azerbaijan reported that 16 Azerbaijani civilians had been killed and 55 injured in the escalation of tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone by artillery of the Armed Forces of Armenia. According to the agency, 163 residential homes and 36 civilian objects were also seriously affected.
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh became complicated on September 27, with clashes in the disputed area. Military state imposed on Azerbaijan and Armenia, announced the mobilization. Both parties report deaths and injuries, including civilians. Azerbaijan claims to have occupied several villages and strategic highlands of Karabakh. Yerevan denies this and reports that shots are also being fired at Armenian territory.
Audrius BUTKEVIČIUS, signatory to the Restoration of Independence Act and political reviewer, comments on the situation:
What is happening there and why? First, the force formed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan returns to the borders of the Ottoman Empire. This does not necessarily happen directly, as shown in the ancient maps of the Caucasus, but in the form of modern influences used by both Persia (Iran) and Turkey.
The second aspect is the gas problem. As you know, the Russian gas pipelines direct to Turkey are now empty, and to make things look so sad, they are constantly being repaired … Therefore, this story is directly related to Azerbaijan’s oil and gas supplies to Turkey, especially because Azerbaijan can supply Turkey with these resources. RTErdogan simply could not sleep soundly if he received energy resources from outside the Turkish country …
The third factor that has led to this situation is that the new Armenian leader, Nikol Pashinian, is not liked by Russia. Because the Russian president evaluates many world leaders only on the level of personal sympathy-antipathy, Pasinyan, who came to power during the coup and did not agree with Moscow, is relatively free and independent, and in many cases depends of powerful cartridges from the broad Armenian diaspora. . Well, Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh forced the already disobedient N. Pasinian, who arrogantly mocks Putin’s second-rate supporters, to call the Kremlin more often than usual …
However, Russians know very well that in the last 26 years (since the signing of the Nagorno-Karabakh Status Agreement in 1994) the region has been transformed into a fortified area with massive fortification systems built in places where mountains they still allow the Azerbaijanis simple and easy. And now that’s exactly what we’re seeing: a fairly vigorous attack is hitting the fortifications. Putin therefore clearly sees that the conflict will continue, which is good for him, because for decades Russia has been playing these kinds of conflicts in the region. Russia, in case of a protracted conflict, then it needs both sides to fight, but more importantly, it becomes necessary for the European Union.
All of this takes place in a context of diminishing energy resources. Azerbaijan has achieved a fairly high standard of living due to the trade in these resources, but it has not developed a powerful enough economy and industry to compensate for the losses in this context. Therefore, it is very convenient to organize such an offensive to stay in power as long as possible and to mobilize the entire nation. However, this is also convenient for Armenia, especially since the impending conflict became known long before artillery from both sides began firing. We have at least five baselines pouring kerosene on the fire from this conflict. Only a few global players are solving their challenges here.
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