The professor explained where the numbers come from: quarantine would be an effective tool, but how prepared are we?

“Obviously it is about testing chimneys. I saw that yesterday many samples were analyzed, more than six thousand. When the numbers were lower, more and more samples, like 3,000, were examined, and then about 90 cases were identified. As soon as the volumes go up, and when there’s a focus on the stacks, which is right, those numbers go up enormously, ”commented A. Žvirblienė.

The scientist is convinced that the extent to which the virus spreads rapidly depends largely on the people themselves.

“If areas where this infection is more prevalent are advertised, people should finally realize that the virus is a real threat. I also saw reports that people even in Raseiniai say that “there are no viruses here. It’s all over the top. ”If there’s such an approach, if people aren’t sure, then that virus is spreading a lot.

Now much depends on us. For epidemiologists, that burden is no longer bearable. There is nothing to expect someone to take care of us and take care of us, ”said A. Žvirblienė.

Quarantine would make sense if we knew it would all end soon

The researcher agreed with the statement that quarantine as a tool is effective in reducing the spread of morbidity, but has a very high social cost.

“Quarantine is an effective tool. We saw it ourselves, and everyone who presented it saw it, but the price is very high. Therefore, it is very important to weigh how much we are willing to pay that price. In general, quarantine would have It makes sense if we knew we were going to suffer for about three months, and then there would be a vaccine or something else. But so far we don’t have such a clear perspective of when that threat might end, “said A. Žvirblienė.

A case study from the National Center for Public Health shows that some critical points are related to events. For example, in Kaunas, an outbreak was detected in a musical theater.

The teacher believes that it would be helpful for decision makers to consider constraints on events.

“We often talk about Sweden. I heard it myself today through the news that a Swede who attended an event in Lithuania (it was like a kind of management conference there) says:” We couldn’t even have such an event in Sweden “. It happens that now we live even more freely than Swedes. What to expect then?” Asked A. Žvirblienė rhetorically.

It would also make sense for her to consider the opening hours of nightclubs and bars.

“In my personal opinion, it is really possible to do without nightclubs, because it is a place where there is no talk of any discipline and restriction. This is where people come to relax. There have been many cases around the world where outbreaks have occurred in nightclubs and bars. If you are already thinking about restrictions, you may want to start with those where the risks are greatest, ”said A. Žvirblienė.

According to the professor, the situation in restaurants is better.

“If you come to a restaurant or a group of friends, where people communicate with each other anyway, that risk might not exist if you sit at a table with people you know who you communicate with anyway. But if you come to a disco, then you come looking for dates. This is a completely different level of risk, “said A. Žvirblienė.

The researcher would see no point in restricting flights at this stage.

“We just realized that the virus was no longer at that stage. This is a spread within Lithuania. The flight restriction no longer makes much sense, ”said A. Žvirblienė.

The ABCs of Self-Protection: Masks and Hand Washing Aid

The researcher also repeated the alphabet of self-defense that everyone should know. According to the researcher, “the masks really help.”

“The spread of the droplets is really stopping. Especially when we are around strangers. This applies to public transportation, shops. In the workplace, maybe everyone mixes anyway, unless it’s a workplace where there is a constant stream of strangers. Oh, if it’s a team where the same people meet every day, then I don’t know if it makes much sense to sit in masks, “said A. Žvirblienė.

According to the researcher, washing your hands also makes sense.

“Even in public transport, how many people touch the same handle when going up. Of course, after exiting public transport, you should wash your hands, not take the virus, for example, to your family, ”said A. Žvirblienė.

Another simple thing to help protect others is the advice of a scientist for those who sneeze and oppress not to go to work.

“At this age, you shouldn’t go to work sneezing and sneezing. It’s not necessarily the same virus, but you should stay home with a fever, sneezing, and runny nose. Because especially when sneezing, a lot of those particles come out, and if a person has that virus will definitely spread a lot, ”said A. Žvirblienė.

Said what rules she follows herself

The investigator agreed to answer questions about the rules she follows at this time.

“You know, I really like theater and concerts, but I haven’t been around in a long time. Not because he was scared in any way, but they just weren’t there for long. I attended an event myself, such as a login conference, I would walk everywhere with a mask except when I was speaking off stage, then I took it off because the listeners were sitting in the hall.

In our laboratory, we walk without masks because it is our equipment where we interact with people all the time. But as soon as we left our lab, we all walked around in masks. For example, when we go to have lunch at a cafe before we are going to be masked. The students walk around us and I can really see that everyone follows these rules, they walk around with masks.

We have sanitizing fluids and facilities to wash our hands, and we do. If I have to take public transport, I definitely travel with a mask and then wash my hands. What I recommend is that I do it myself.

During the quarantine, we follow the recommendation not to organize celebrations. Now we meet and communicate in a family circle, it is not like we are closed at all, ”said A. Žvirblienė.

It is not a very optimistic look into the future.

When answering the question of how much more will have to suffer from the side of this virus, the scientist was not very optimistic. She does not believe that the population can be vaccinated against COVID-19 already in the spring.

“There may be optimists who believe that, but I don’t. Or – for how long? You know, some people will still get sick. This is unavoidable. We can come up with an option like in Sweden. Only with them it happened in spring, and with us it could happen during the winter season. And then the spread of the virus naturally slows down, even if the percentage of people who get sick is not very high.

In Sweden, for example, according to a population survey, it was 10 percent, but still the spread is much less now than in the spring. Recurrence slows the spread of the virus a bit. But of course it is winter before our eyes. I’m not going to predict, but I think the number of cases we see now is definitely not the final record, “said A. Žvirblienė.

A new record is set

The number of new COVID-19 cases confirmed yesterday was 172, the National Public Health Center (NVSC) on October 2. 9 pm data. Another man died.

Specific actions to be taken as the number of cases increases are decided at government meetings each week. Today’s decision makers follow the logic of controlling the spread of the virus in hotspots.

Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis this week denied rumors that a quarantine date has already been set for October 16.

“And I heard that the quarantine will definitely be announced on October 16. This is completely false, no deadlines are mentioned, the publication of the quarantine conditions is linked to very clear indicators. Today, although we are seeing an increase in the number of infections, one of the main indicators that would incentivize such steps – if we see that the health system is overheated, hospital beds are occupied, resuscitation and pulmonary ventilation are needed, ”said S Skvernelis.

He argued that quarantine could be considered if high rates of coronavirus growth were identified, rather than foci, but widespread prevalence and untraceable contact between patients.

S. Skvernel assured that today we can talk about recommendations for the moment.

“It just came to our attention then. As of today there are no indications yet, we have 5 cities and districts with smokestacks in them. There, the number of all infections is about 85 percent. The situation is good in the rest. of the country. Today, we can only talk about recommendations for the moment. If it is considered necessary, the introduction of local quarantine could be considered. But today it really is not, “said the head of government.

And he reiterated that the local quarantine would be announced initially. He said there was no reason to talk about quarantine at this time. And the current speeches are associated with political battalions.

Decided by the municipalities

The Prime Minister explained that the proposal to abandon mass events is only a recommendation. No binding decisions have yet been made. In each case, the decision is made by the specific municipality.

“I think that many municipalities listen and understand that. We are now seeing results, with numbers increasing and doubling every two weeks due to events that occurred when we were relaxed, or, although not relaxed, it was simply not naturally possible to manage potential risks. We need to know that. The Public Health Center publishes such information.

We receive information every day about the situation at the treatment facilities. (…) We manage risk. Regarding mass events, we recommend not to hold any event in which it is not possible to register the participants, to track where it would not be possible to maintain a safe social distance, to ensure that all event participants are safe enough and protect the participants. others, ”said S. Skvernelis.