The increase in coronavirus cases in Lithuania was inevitable: doctors named two main reasons

According to Daiva Razmuvienė, an epidemiologist at the National Public Health Center (NVSC), at the Delfi Tema fair, the opening of educational institutions and the return of employees to workplaces undoubtedly contributed to the increase in diseases.

“We always make such predictions before the fall period that we will close educational institutions, workplaces, and certain viruses that cause colds will really spread. Clearly, this was the case for flu infections, other colds. This year, as we say, it is less grateful, because this new coronavirus has joined the whole family of infectious diseases, ”said D. Razmuvienė.

An increase in cases was inevitable

According to the interlocutor, the number of cases increased after the start of the cold period, so “this is not a miracle or news.”

“Currently, in September, we all meet in educational institutions, workplaces, we see that the virus is spreading. For a week and a half, the differentials also appeared in health facilities, which we did not see in August or the first weeks of September. There are conditions for this virus to spread. If we talk about health centers, then yes, there are certain places in the infection control regime where that virus creeps. If we talk about educational institutions, again the requirements that must be implemented are not always organized. Again, it can be seen that it is not easy to manage flows and implement all other restrictions in educational institutions ”, said D. Razmuvienė.

Paulius Gradeckas, an epidemiologist who previously worked on Saulius Skvernelis’ team, also said that “the increase in cases was inevitable.”

Although the monthly total will be close to 2,000, it can be said that in the first half of September the average number was up to 50 cases per day, then suddenly the median, that is, the number around the kettle jumped to 80, 90 and then we had records ”. she pointed.

A previous population study in Lithuania showed that the prevalence of the coronavirus in our country is low, 1-3% of people are exposed to it in different areas. According to Vilnius University (VU) researcher Aurelija Žvirblienė, this only shows that the population still does not have any protection.

“According to a population study, this number of infected people was not expected to be high. It is up to 1 or 3 percent. in some areas. This, I would say, is a completely believed result and means that up to now the virus has been rare in Lithuania. So far, there is nothing to hope that many people will resist, ”said the professor.

Proliferation is due to insulation damage

According to the NVSC center, so far the largest number of new infections is registered at access points, which means that the virus is still under control. Currently, epidemiologists fail to identify between 18 and 20 percent. cases, but according to D. Razmuvienė, the people themselves often do not want to cooperate.

“The reasons why it is impossible to determine how a person is infected are very personal when people do not mean they cannot. We are well aware that, as Europe states today, people between the ages of 15 and 49 are sick. people, they are mobile, socially active and the number of patients is, of course, higher, but their clinical symptoms are milder or asymptomatic at all, ”said D. Razmuvienė.

According to the doctor, currently about 25 thousand people are isolated in Lithuania. people, but there are cases where secondary contacts become infected.

“I do not want to repeat, but it means violations, communication. There are even cases in which sick people, who have mild, asymptomatic forms and are treated at home, are taken to an educational institution. This must return to the consciousness of our citizens and understand that whatever their clinical symptoms, there must be self-isolation requirements and all other measures. In other countries, this is normal practice, no one thinks of acting differently from how they were given a recommendation, “said D. Razmuvienė .

When asked why people experience such a different course of the disease, prof. A. Žvirblienė explained that everything depends on immunity. However, she stressed, it does not mean that eating more ginger with coronavirus will facilitate dorosis.

“Certainly not because our immune systems are largely genetically determined. Clearly, a person may be somewhat weakened, exhausted from dieting or overworked, insomniac, the nervous system has an effect on the immune system, and that person is clearly more susceptible to any infection. But, to a large extent, it depends on the immune system, as well as the dose the person received of the virus.

It is believed that a person can become infected with several thousand virus particles, and the more of those particles, the more difficult it will be for the immune system to cope with that initial stage of infection. If the virus is already penetrating deeper into the body, these more serious complications occur. I remind you that if a sick person sneezes or coughs, they are releasing millions of virus particles into the environment by the time the virus is in the nasopharynx. Imagine what it means if we communicate with a sick person who is actively spreading the infection and needs several thousand to become infected, ”said A. Žvirblienė.

Reinfection by coronavirus is possible

So far, the very development of immunity against the coronavirus, said A. Žvirblienė, still raises many questions. According to her, there is no doubt that a secondary infection is possible.

“Now there have been cases in which a person has gotten sick again and again, because in the past this was questioned and it was not clear if it was about the reactivation of that virus. Now the cases in which a person has been re-infected are certainly known. That virus in those cases is mutated, slightly altered and, as a result, that second infection occurs. But this does not mean that a person is completely vulnerable, because, at least as far as I know, those reinfections were easier: it is an asymptomatic or mild form of infection, ”shared the professor.

He also emphasized that it is easier to determine whether antibodies have formed in the human body, but their reduction does not mean that there is no so-called long-term immunity.

“We know about immunity as long as the pandemic continues. It is possible to test people who have been infected 5-6 months ago, but to test immunity is not that simple. It is easy to test if people have antibodies and these tests are done in many countries. We have done such a study and so have we, as well as with people who knew we were really infected but had no symptoms. We see that most of these people had antibodies two months later. Antibodies are an indicator of immunity and even now it is the only one that can be easily measured.Of course, there is also cellular immunity in the immune response to this, but it is very difficult to measure.

In other words, the fact is that yes, immunity is formed. How long does it last? It’s hard to say here yet. We have data that after 4-5 months, antibody levels start to decline, but again, they say nothing about persistent cellular immunity. This could only be checked whether or not people are resistant to reinfection. That would be the only accurate indicator that would show that long-lasting immunity, ”explained A. Žvirblienė.

The number of people treated in hospitals grows

Recently, outbreaks of the virus in Lithuania have been registered again in medical institutions, which was not the case in the summer. When asked if it was a warning sign, D. Razmuvienė agreed.

“I think the first sign is when the first case occurs in any medical institution, be it a hospital for care, nursing, or even more complex palliative care. This is already a sign that the virus has infiltrated the facility. treatment due to some breach of infection control. “

According to the epidemiologist, currently in Lithuania changes are being observed in the number of patients treated for coronavirus in hospitals.

“In the first days of September, up to half a month, 45 to 55 people were hospitalized daily, 3-5 people were also applied in resuscitation rooms and 2-3 people artificial lung ventilation. Around the third week of September (…) 107 people have already been hospitalized, in resuscitation a greater number – 6-7 each day, artificial pulmonary ventilation is also applied to a greater number. But it does not exceed the figures that were in April of this year, “said the doctor.

He added that currently between 20 and 30 people need oxygen masks every day. Since the flu season is already starting in Lithuania, the doctor urged doctors to take care of their safety without delay and, first of all, so that there is no shortage of staff in medical institutions.

For his part, A. Žvirblienė denied rumors that the flu vaccine could also affect resistance to the coronavirus. The professor emphasized that these are two completely different viruses.

“The vaccine protects against a specific virus, there is really no connection here. The only help is to avoid overloading hospitals with the flu vaccine, there would be no double risk of infection. Sometimes, there is still a real public perception that the coronavirus is the same as influenza. These are completely different viruses. “