In terms of morbidity from coronavirus, we have surpassed Italy: what solutions do you expect?

Rolanda Lingienė, head of the Vilnius department of the National Center for Public Health, no longer doubts that the second wave has arrived. And the Minister of Health, Aurelijus Veryga, for the portal. Delphi predicted, the current record number of cases, is not final.

“I think the numbers we have now are not finite. I think we will definitely have more, we will definitely have more than one fireplace, the numbers are higher. What is very important is that people, especially those at risk, have learned to be careful. Hopefully the disease will spread further and affect the very young, as it has done so far, as in other European countries. If that happens, the threat will be relatively moderate, but if the disease begins to spread among the elderly, it is we may have some problems, ”said the minister.

Incidence in Lithuania has increased

Despite the significant increase in the incidence of COVID-19, Lithuania is still far from catching up with other Western European countries, where the incidence is almost ten times higher.

According to data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on September 29, the two-week morbidity rate in Lithuania has already reached 39.5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Although it was still lower on Friday – 31.2. The total number of cases in Lithuania is 4 thousand. 490. The total mortality rate in two weeks in Lithuania is currently 0.2 cases per 100 000. population.

Estonia looks a bit worse. Here, the morbidity rate is 100,000. The population is 42.9, right, there have been no deaths from COVID-19 in two weeks.

In Poland, the two-week morbidity rate is lower than in Lithuania – 37.2, but the mortality rate – 0.6.

The highest incidence continues to be in Spain

Spain continues to lead the European Union (EU), the European Economic Area (EEA) and the United Kingdom (UK) in terms of morbidity and mortality from coronavirus. The morbidity here has already reached 329.2 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, mortality – 3.3 cases. The total number of cases is 748 thousand. 266.

The Czech Republic ranks second in the group of the EU, EEA and UK in terms of coronavirus incidence. Here, the two-week morbidity rate is 269.1 cases per 100,000. population (there were 243.8 cases on Friday) and mortality – 1.4 cases (there were 1.1 cases).

Mortality from coronavirus is particularly high in Romania, with 2.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. According to this indicator, only the aforementioned Spain is ahead of the country. The incidence in Romania is 101.8 cases per 100 thousand. population.

The incidence rate is also particularly high in France: 231.9 cases per 100,000. population. Here, the mortality rate is 1.3 cases.

Morbidity statistics continue to follow Luxembourg, where morbidity is 184.4 cases per 100,000. population, but there were no deaths from coronavirus in two weeks.

The Netherlands in terms of morbidity is the Netherlands. Here, morbidity reached 179.9 cases per one hundred thousand inhabitants, mortality – 0.7.

There is also a high incidence in Belgium (morbidity – 175 cases, mortality – 0.5), Iceland (morbidity – 138.7 cases, no deaths in the last two weeks), Denmark (morbidity – 125.2 cases, mortality – 0 , 3) In Hungary (127 cases, mortality – 1.2) in Austria (morbidity – 112.9 cases, mortality – 0.4).

In the UK, the incidence of coronavirus is also high today, 101.9 per 100,000 cases. population, mortality – 0.5 cases. In Ireland, 85.4 and 0.4 cases respectively.

In Portugal, morbidity is also rapidly approaching 100. Currently, the morbidity per 100,000 inhabitants is 91.8 and the mortality rate is 0.8.

In Slovenia, the morbidity is 78.8 cases and the mortality rate is 0.2 per 100 thousand inhabitants. In Slovakia, the incidence reached 69 cases, the mortality rate was 0.1, in Croatia the current incidence is 64.9 cases, the mortality rate is 1.1, in Greece the incidence is 40 cases, the mortality rate is 0.7, in Bulgaria the incidence is 31.6, the mortality rate is 1.1, in Germany – 30.9, mortality – 0.1.

Morbidity is not particularly high, global immunity is too

In Denmark and Iceland, the incidence of coronavirus is currently one of the highest in Europe, but Norway and Sweden do not have such a high incidence. In Norway, the incidence is currently 29 cases per 100,000. population, mortality was 0.2 cases and in Sweden 42.7 and 0.2 cases, respectively.

The morbidity rates in Sweden, which has chosen the path of allowing natural immunity to develop naturally and therefore without applying specific restrictions, are receiving special attention from all professionals.

At present, Sweden is not notable for its exceptionally high morbidity, but it cannot boast that a large part of the public has acquired immunity.

“The Swedes have tried in a sense to think that young people should get sick, let universal immunity develop.” But some time ago they did a large population study and they expected global immunity to be around 20%, but if I remember correctly, it was only around 6% ”, recalled Vytautas Usonis, PhD, Director of the Children’s Clinic of the University from Vilnius.

Praise the Italians

In Italy, which led in the spring in terms of morbidity and mortality, the morbidity is currently 37.4 cases and the mortality rate is 0.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

Italy’s ability to catch up and deal with the coronavirus is given in an interview with the portal. Delphi also praised by Professor V. Usonis.

“If you remember, we said in March: how are you going to tell those Southerners here to maintain that social distance or limit communication? But those, in our imagination, very excited Southerners, faced the coronavirus probably better than the people of Northern Europe precisely. through the discipline they achieved by one means or another ”, explained the professor.

The lowest morbidity in Latvia

The lowest incidence rate in the EU, EEA and UK group is in neighboring Latvia, although it has risen from 7.6 to 11.5 since Friday. The two-week death rate in Latvia is currently 0.1.

The rate is also low in Liechtenstein: 18.2 cases per 100,000. population. There were no deaths here in two weeks.

In Cyprus, the morbidity rate is now 18.5 cases per 100,000 population, with no deaths in two weeks.

In Finland, the coronavirus incidence rate is 20.1 and the death rate is 0.1.

The indicator also casts doubts on the Minister himself

Currently, due to the increase in morbidity in Poland, 14 days of isolation are applied after returning from this country with certain exceptions, although, according to the data, the incidence of coronavirus in this country is even lower than in Lithuania.

The Delfi portal was asked if it was logical to isolate oneself when returning from a country where morbidity is even lower than in Lithuania, although it exceeds 25 cases per 100,000. and the fact that there is no idea to revise the indicator for the list of affected countries, especially both logical and not very.

If you look at the number itself, it may not seem very logical. But from what I had to communicate with the minister of neighboring Estonia, there are very similar views that the disease can spread not only internally, but can also come from certain countries. And we have at least a dozen imported cases every week. This is a certain logic to be careful of.

It is clear how much care should be taken and what the indicator should be, it is very difficult for me to say at this point. Ideally, it is not only this indicator that should be considered. Apparently, the most logical still would be to look at the prevalence of outbreaks: what percentage would the outbreak be in those states. Only, I wouldn’t dare tell epidemiologists how accurate those statistics are, how much that indicator could be taken.

If almost all the cases are focal, then the risk is certainly small and there would be no logic, but if the spread is small but not related to the foci, then the logic to take into account is how it would be. “

“In Lithuania, as in other countries, we still do not have public immunity or it is very weak. Therefore, the person who will arrive will not be able to tell anyone how they behaved or were in contact with the patient. This is considered a risk. Therefore, you should, after coming from a foreign country, take a test and isolate yourself. This is normal practice, “explained D. Razmuvienė.