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Glass ceilings of the Union of the Fatherland
One of the usual rules of Lithuanian politics might sound like this: if a voter has to choose between two evils, the Lithuanian Christian National-Democratic Union (TS-LKD) loses. For a frequent voter, the second round of elections to the Seimas in a single-member constituency becomes a dilemma of what to choose when the candidate supported in the first round has already withdrawn.
In the first round of the 2016 Seimas elections, 22 TS-LKD candidates finished in first place. Ingrid Šimonyte didn’t even need the second. However, in the second round only 10 conservative candidates won, although more than 40 participated. In the next Seimas elections a similar trend was observed, but the “green tsunami” highlighted the problem like never before.
There were several solutions. In the 2016 Seimas elections, the “safe” constituencies, where the TS-LKD usually wins, were often assigned to lesser-known candidates, and the “heavyweights” were thrown to those countries where the fight is more difficult.
This year, the main decision that is expected to change the situation is the leader of the list Ingrida Šimonytė. The first round of the 2019 presidential elections showed that it can expand the party’s electorate. In the European Parliament elections held in the same month, the TS-LKD had the support of 248,000 voters, and in the first round of the presidential elections, 446,000 citizens voted for I. Šimonytė.
However, an attractive leader alone will not necessarily increase the popularity of individual candidates. After all, I. Šimonytė herself was significantly behind Gitan Nausėda in the second round of the presidential elections, who turned out to be a more acceptable alternative to those who supported other candidates in the first round.
This year, the main decision that is expected to change the situation is the leader of the list, Ingrida Šimonytė.
Traditional “second choice” classifications aren’t reassuring, either. If they couldn’t support their first preference, only 3% of respondents would choose the second TS-LKD (ELTA / Baltic Research). A slightly different picture was revealed by the LRT / Norstat poll, according to which the fewest number of voters in all parties who would never vote for political power have TS-LKD. However, due to the not so common methodology, this poll should be viewed with caution, and we will see the real ability of the conservatives to shed the reputation of the polarizing party during the elections. This will be a key factor in the fight for victory.
Peasants, COVID-19 and the casual campaign
The Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens (LVŽS) pre-election narrative is very simple: the successful fight against COVID-19 and the growing economy allow us to hope that voters will allow them to continue their work. Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis is simply doing his job and not even participating in the debate (by the way, this strategy was perfect for President Dalia Grybauskaitė, who dropped any political campaign when she sought re-election in 2014), the party’s strategy is represented by state strategy documents. Therefore, LVŽS sees the elections almost as a small obstacle to continue working.
Within three weeks, the situation in the COVID-19 field could still change. If draconian measures were taken again, the economy would be hit again.
Yes, the COVID-19 situation in Lithuania (so far) seems to be under control and better than in many EU countries. The economy grew in 2016-2020 and even the recovery from the COVID-19 strike was unexpectedly fast and impressive.
But critics always ask whether this was due to the efforts of the “peasants” or in spite of them. Furthermore, within three weeks, the situation in the field of anti-COVID-19 may still change. If draconian measures were taken again, the economy would suffer again. Without Prime Minister S. Skvernelis’s participation in the debate, his visibility in the context of the elections suffers, and the party itself is represented by less well-known and less popular faces. Until now, LVŽS arrogantly believes that to win in any case, even without making an effort, there will be enough state strategies, a TS-LKD bad job list, and government job publicity., which cost the budget € 66,000. Joy can strike back.
Opportunities for Average Advancement
Looking at the survey data, only four parties can keep silent about entering the Seimas: apart from the Conservatives and the “peasants”, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) and the Labor Party (DP) will definitely work in the Seimas.
Perhaps most controversial is the position of the LSDP. In one survey (Elta / Baltic Research) they have already surpassed the leading duo, in another they are far behind (Delfi / Spinter research). Interestingly, the polls did not capture the party’s actual popularity polls before the 2019 European elections, when popularity fluctuated around 10% and the party received 5% more. The Social Democrats also performed better than expected in last year’s municipal elections.
Although many discussions about post-election power centers now typically look only at the possibility of a coalition led by the LVŽS and the TS-LKD, the LSDP may confuse the situation. Even if the most modest forecast of the results of the Social Democrats is confirmed, they should be at least third in the elections. It is realistic for a position to weigh the winners’ chances of forming a coalition to one side or the other.
In DP’s case, getting involved in the fight for victory seems less realistic. The party’s strategy of nominating Viktor Uspaskich as prime minister but not on the list is understandable: his dreams of being “prime minister or caraway“It is not so realistic that risking a warm seat in the European Parliament is worth risking. However, Vigilijus Jukna, chosen as the leader of the list, lacks fame and charisma. Antanas Guoga is not lacking in these. Probably looking back at the past. politician of the poker player, V. Uspaskich did not dare to entrust the list to a sometimes unpredictable politician. While the main “crown” of the new government will probably be the Social Democrats, the decisions and the role of the Labor Party will also be of great importance. value, which will also depend on the final number of seats.
Although many discussions about the post-election centers of power now normally look only at the possibility of a coalition led by the LVŽS and the TS-LKD, the LSDP can confuse the situation.
Remove red lines
In an ideal world, the TS-LKD would likely form a ruling coalition with the Liberal Movement (LRLS) and the Freedom Party (LP) after a victorious election. The popularity of these two parties in the polls hovers around 5%. This means that a scenario in which there will be no liberal parties in the Seimas is entirely possible.
However, even if the TS-LKD wins the Seimas elections and both liberal parties also enter the Seimas, such a coalition will not necessarily reach the required majority. And then the puzzles for the conservatives would begin. LVŽS are your main competitors who would not make friends. The LSDP has long been a major political opponent, and the PD has only lost that label when it has weakened. The Homeland Union will not work with the Union of Christian Families of the Lithuanian Polish Election Campaign (LLRA-KŠS) in principle. Each of the three Musketeers of Liberty and Justice (LT) also does not have the most beautiful history of relations with the conservatives. After the 2016 Seimas elections, it was difficult to agree on cooperation with the LRLS in the opposition, and the coalition with the LP really wanted to avoid the conservative wing TS-LKD, which has appeared solidly in the ranking of the list. .
It is very realistic that after the elections, the Conservatives will have to do one of two things: erase the old red lines or accept that they will have spent 12 years in opposition in 2024. It could also be a question of Gabriel Landsberg’s political future: a new period in opposition would be a serious defeat.
Merciful Polish voters
LLRA-KŠS voters are famous for their loyalty and immunity from scandals. But there were more of them than ever during this period. The adventures of Jaroslav Narkevich and the pro-Russian speeches of Zbignev Jedinsky are unlikely to enthuse the Russian part of the electorate. However, there is a slim chance that for some voters there is too much of what they saw.
The “peasants” are particularly interested in the success of the party. Despite the fact that the leader of the list, Linas Linkevičius, receives a lot of attention before the elections, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party (LSDDP) has almost no chance of entering the Seimas. LT’s chances are a little better, but the new political force will not necessarily be a convenient and easy-to-create coalition partner. In the event of an unexpected fiasco in the LLRA-KŠS, the “peasants” may have to replace all existing partners with new ones and seek the support of the LSDP and DP, which would be significantly more expensive than the current comrades who claim much factions. smaller.
Despite the fact that the leader of the list, Linas Linkevičius, receives a lot of attention before the elections, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party (LSDDP) has almost no chance of entering the Seimas.
It is not a coincidence that a joint meeting of the governments of Lithuania and Poland was held in Vilnius, which is also a signal to the Lithuanian Poles that there is no need to depart from this government, which has normalized relations with Warsaw. “Lithuania is for everyone”, founded by Tomas Pačėsas, who mediated the contacts between S. Skvernelis and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, probably also emerged as a “reserve party”, of which he is expected to at least try to reach 5% and be a partner . The leader of this list, Algis Krupavičius, was almost the only political scientist in the country who constantly supported the controversial proposals of the LVŽS in the field of reforms of the electoral system. This match will not enter the Seimas, but their intentions are quite clear. The “peasants” are not comfortable with what awaits them after the elections and want to be insured, even knowing that the LLRA-KŠS is likely to enter the Seimas.
The party that receives the most votes in a multi-member constituency will not necessarily be the true winner of the election. The second round in single-member constituencies and the performance of potential coalition partners will be no less important. In particular, electoral logic may differ in single-member constituencies: choosing the lesser evil, a nonpolarizing reputation will be paramount. Traditional opinion polls show no such factors. So don’t be surprised if the results of parties marching side by side in a multi-member constituency can differ significantly in a single-member constituency.
Matas Baltrukevičius is an Associate Analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis.
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