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“Epidemiologists, depending on how well they can figure out the routes of spread, say about 60-70 percent. in all cases they are related to existing chimneys. The bad news is that epidemiologists in our country are not speaking out loud, although they have mentioned that people are no longer so inclined to reveal their paths, where they were, what they did, “said a specialist who was currently deputy director of the Center of Primary Health Care of Marijampolė.
From her work experience as an epidemiologist, she recalled that often when people want to hide information, perhaps out of shame, they say they don’t remember, they don’t know.
“With this situation, there are probably two steps to the (uncontrolled) spread in society,” Gradeck said.
At the same time, the specialist named another feature of this era that complicates the situation: conspiracy theories have no difficulty reaching the audience with the help of social networks.
“They might say, ‘They’re not just posting coronavirus numbers, they’re really sick people.’ However, without violating the rights of patients, people’s names cannot be revealed, and then we have to rely on the figures available to the National Center for Public Health (NVSC), “Gradeck said.
However, according to the specialist, the problem is not only fans of conspiracy theories.
“Those people are the ones who can write on a park bench that they are painted and they will sit down, but the problem is that even those who usually climb logically do not accept information, they do not believe in politicians.
As early as April, I mentioned the phenomenon that people get tired of following the rules, and that fatigue is observed not only without working with the health professionals who are in charge of managing the outbreak, but also with basic hygiene rules. If we generally recognize that masks help stop the spread of the virus to some extent, then people ask, “Why should I wear them?”
According to the specialist, the problem now is not the logic of the established rules, but the ability to reach people with information.
“This is a message to the Minister of Health that, in part, the non-compliance is personal. Why in other areas, like public health, smoking, taking drugs, don’t politicians talk about it being wrong to do it, and that’s what popular people say. Let’s not invent a bicycle.
I respect what Mr. Veryga is doing, he is a man who does not count working hours, but I have to admit that, at best, a fifth of people listen to him. The other four-fifths, even those people who shouldn’t have doubts, because their education and culture say they should obey the rules, they start questioning them, because that’s not the most popular person, “Gradeck said.
Paulius Gradeckas
The target audience is young people
The epidemiologist would suggest to the operations manager that he select a group of people in authority in society to discuss the measures. According to him, it is now especially important to reach young people.
“The easiest way to spread the virus is among young people who have a much wider network of social contacts. Once there was a multi-anthropological debate, a joke that social distance in Estonia is an everyday occurrence, and for Italians it is a tragedy.
But I want to say that anthropologically, Lithuanians under 35 are no different from their peers in Western Europe. Their social network is the same and the virus is successfully spreading among young people, ”said P. Gradeckas.
At the same time, the specialist recalled that the greatest damage that this virus does to the elderly who suffer from many chronic diseases.
“For those who say that ‘those people would die anyway’, I want to tell you that an average of 58,000 people die in Lithuania every year. people with good health care really don’t want a thousand more. We must also understand that doctors are trying to protect the most vulnerable part of the population, where someone’s father or grandfather and grandmother are, “said P. Gradeckas.
Quarantine has its downsides, too
At the same time, the specialist drew attention to the outbreak at Radviliškis Hospital.
“These cases indicate that in any case an uncontrolled outbreak can occur. Let us remember that in Italy it all started with an outbreak the size of a hospital in the city of Radviliškis and how it all ended. This should be cause for concern not only for the directors of the institution, but also for the politicians responsible for managing this situation, “Gradeck said.
In general, however, the specialist was more inclined to emphasize the context than the specific number of infected people, be it 99 cases or some other number.
“The context is that so far infections are occurring mainly among young people, the virus is spreading at the same rate as it is spreading. The bad news that people get tired means they are less likely to cooperate, and treatment facilities, even with lessons from both abroad and home, remain vulnerable. Because they are vulnerable, so are patients, including those with the most fragile of health conditions, ”Gradeck said.
Speaking of what to do, the specialist drew attention to the example of South Korea.
“It was a success story at the same time, then a little success story, then a success story again. They did not change the strategy. South Korea has resumed mass testing of individuals as the number of cases increases.
As I understand it, the head of the operation in Lithuania also forced at least the representatives of the Radviliškis municipal administration to test as many people as possible and try to isolate them to stop the spread, ”said P. Gradeckas.
When considering new measures, the specialist suggested evaluating the fact that now the expansion of demographics is completely different from the previous spring. This means thinking about how to affect young people without closing lives.
“Because it is young people who generate more added value in the service sector. They go to cafes, they pay for food, drinks, services, entertainment, the state collects taxes, people work. We have to think about how to present this in a friendly way without tiring out the population that can actually listen to what the politicians are saying, ”said Mr. Gradeck.
Quarantine, according to the expert, in Western European countries is considered only as a last resort.
“It’s not because it doesn’t work. It works very well to flatten the curve, but countries like Germany, Italy, Spain do it very carefully and only in separate administrative areas, realizing that people’s dissatisfaction can not only mean unpopularity. with politicians, but they look more deeply at not following the rules at all. You have to maneuver between the heavy hand and social life, “said P. Gradeckas.
Delfi recalls that on Monday, Prime Minister S. Skvernel announced new measures that will be taken to control the situation due to the spread of the coronavirus. You can read more about them here.
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