Professor Usonis warned of the possible consequences of COVID-19, as studies of the dead show

Doctor in Infectious Diseases Qualified professor Dr. Alvydas Laiškonis believes that countries that are already declaring quarantine are acting prudently and human health should not be sacrificed for the good of the economy.

However, Vytautas Usonis, a doctor of medical sciences and a professor at the Clinic for Childhood Diseases of the Vilnius University Medical School, doubts that strict measures such as quarantine are needed immediately. There are other ways to control the infection.

The three components of the epidemic process

Professor V. Usonis recalled that there are three components of the epidemic process: the source of infection, the routes of spread and a receptive society. It is they who can affect the spread of infections.

“Speaking of SARS-CoV-2, as you know, there is no vaccine. It is in the clinical stages. It means that we cannot influence that receptive bond in society.

We also cannot affect the source of the infection. China tried to do it in December-January, but failed. The virus has spread throughout the world.

The only direction in which we can affect the infection is through the routes of spread. We must all understand this very clearly.

We need to understand something else very clear: all those restrictions that are very unpleasant, or recommendations that are sometimes unpleasant, such as masks, disinfection, social distancing, are needed by the unofficials, not the people in power, we need them. Until we realize that, until we wear the mask just because someone told me to, and not because they want to protect me, we won’t have that good result.

See how much criticism there are for all those recommendations, and even worse, if they become strict requirements.

In fact, if we look at different countries, it is where there is more awareness, where there is more discipline in controlling the chain of infection transmission, and the results are better, there is less spread and vice versa ”, said Professor V. Usonis .

A 400-year-old tool for fighting infections

Professor A. Laiškonis noted that more and more countries intend to return to the quarantine announcement. France is already considering quarantine and enforced by Israel, even though the most important Jewish religious holiday, Yom Kippur, is approaching. The UK has also announced new restrictions on the coronavirus. In the opinion of A. Laiškonis, this is the correct decision.

“Latvians, for example, in my opinion, have done it wisely by closing the borders to bring less coronavirus. Well, our economy keeps winning. But why do we need an economy if our people die? “Asked the interlocutor.

His colleague, Professor V. Usonis, agreed that the quarantine of the entire country is a very effective tool, indeed, known for 400 years.

“It just came to our notice then. The quarantine was really logical in March, when we knew very little about this infection. Now, a few months later, and in light of the experience of several countries, I think that those results could be achieved with less severe restrictions. to public life.

You see, quarantine is a compromise between security and public life: the more strictly we guarantee that security, the more it affects public life. What is already being implemented with considerable success in many other countries – the deliberate application of control measures for the expansion of roads – would avoid drastic closures through bans.

General principle: social distances must be guaranteed. For example, if there is a possibility, people should keep their distance not only in the hall when it comes to concerts, but also, for example, when meeting for an event or leaving the hall after a concert. It shouldn’t be the case that everyone in the hall sits within 2 meters and then collides with the locker room, ”said Professor V. Usonis.

According to the interlocutor, it would be difficult to write down in detail the recommendations on how to proceed in each case and for each institution. But there are common principles that we must all adopt and follow, not try to circumvent the bans in secret.

The virus affects more than just the lungs

Professor V. Usonis pointed out that the infection in Lithuania is beginning to recover and, looking at its spread, it is obvious that, unlike in Lithuania, the SARS-Cov-2 virus is now very widespread throughout the country. The current outbreaks also show this.

“Now these outbreaks do not occur in large cities or where there are large flows of travelers. “The virus is spreading throughout the country and everywhere there is the risk of an outbreak if these recommendations are violated to prevent the spread of the infection,” the interviewee warned.

The professor recalled that although most people now suffer from mild forms of COVID-19, the greatest risk of becoming seriously ill and dying from the disease still remains in the elderly, as well as in those with chronic diseases such as diabetes.

“Another thing is that we don’t know much about the far-reaching consequences of COVID-19. We already know what we didn’t know in March, let’s say that examination of the tissues of various organs and tissues from those killed by COVID-19 has shown that the injuries are not limited to the lungs. Rough lesions are found in other organs.

We will only see after a while if even those people who have gotten mildly ill have any long-term consequences. Until we know this, it would be rational for young people to avoid the disease and not contract it, ”said Professor V. Usonis.

A way to build public immunity

There are also many doubts in Lithuania about the efficacy of coronavirus vaccines. Professor A. Laiškonis believes that vaccination is necessary not only against this disease, but also against influenza. It is not the case that one disease does not cause another. You can get COVID-19 and the flu right away. So both infections will likely only make each other worse.

Vaccines against the coronavirus are not yet available. But they are already sparking a lot of debate. Suppose that people fear that the resulting vaccine will not be fully tested, so those who vaccinate it will turn into some kind of experimental rabbit.

Certainly, this will not be the case, at least in the industrialized countries, in the countries of the European Union. On several occasions, officials have stated that despite high demand for the vaccine, the scope, quality, and registration process of clinical trials will not be compromised. This means that once one or the other vaccine is registered, large-scale clinical trials will be conducted and safe and effective vaccines will be implemented on a daily basis.

The second thing when it comes to vaccines is that we always bring up the interests of the individual and society. If I receive any vaccinations, I first protect myself, that is, my personal interests.

Guarantee the public interest when a certain level of public immunity is reached. For COVID-19, it should be around 60-70%. Roughly, many societies need to get immunity for this infection to stop spreading in outbreaks like now.

So far, the level of public immunity in Lithuania, as the population survey has shown, is only 1.5% to 2% in some areas. This means that there is not at least some significant public immunity. Finally, we see this in practice when outbreaks of this infection occur in one place or another.

A vaccine is a tool that, of course, would help first to protect the people who have been vaccinated with it, and secondly, it would help create that level of public immunity to prevent the spread of an epidemic, ”said the Professor V. Usonis.

The Swedish experiment failed

Both professors were skeptical of the Swedish aspiration to allow public immunity to develop naturally.

“The Swedes did a very interesting experiment. They have not taken any epidemic measures and have even been announced in the unofficial press: the more elderly people die, the less they will have to pay for pensions and the more places there will be in residences.

Note that there are about 5 percent in Sweden. emigrants who do not follow any measures against the epidemic at all. What do we have now in Sweden? They did not look for anything special, they kept the economy, but the results of the infected and the dead are not as special as is possible in other countries ”, said Professor A. Laiškonis.

Professor V. Usonis explained that the Swedes were seeking to allow young people to develop coronavirus to develop universal immunity.

“The Swedes have tried in a sense to think that young people should get sick, let immunity develop. They did a big study some time ago and they expected to get around 20 percent of that immunity. Society, but if I remember correctly, he earned only about 6 percent.

There is currently a great scientific debate, and much work is being done to explain whether a sustainable, long-lasting and reliable immunity develops after a natural infection. The Swedish experiment shows that not necessarily. This is not some kind of supernatural. It is well known, for example, that the human papillomavirus does not develop immunity after a natural infection. It only happens after vaccination.

There are so many things related to the coronavirus that are the subject of debate today, we have to wait for the results and see what we have. Until now, as long as we have no other means, the only direction, as I mentioned, is to control the propagation paths, and we have to choose, whether we want to or not, limit the propagation paths by actively participating in it, or wait until it is bad. Usonis.