With Lukashenko’s support, the Kremlin is already cutting down arms: what are the real goals?

As is customary in an annual strategic exercise of this magnitude by Russia, ambition is not lacking even in September 2020, when Russia, like the rest of the world, has yet to recover from a coronavirus pandemic.

Russia has already partially donated a pompous annual event – the May 9 Victory Day parade (moved to June), so it couldn’t afford to sacrifice another show of power. The first warning was an unexpected inspection by the military in July, when some 150,000 people died on their feet. troops, the greatest preparation was announced at 35 land and aviation dumps and 17 naval dumps; almost 29 thousand were deployed. ground equipment units, more than 400 aircraft, 106 ships. It was just a preparation for the Caucasus 2020.

But even the numbers or addresses themselves don’t show regularities this time. During the high-profile exercise Zapad in 2017, Russian soldiers openly simulated battles with NATO forces in Exercise Vostok 2018 and Centr 2019, despite long geographic distances from the west, and continued to train at the training grounds. of NATO in the Far East of the country. countries, and this time it would appear to have chosen a place of actual combat action outside of the Alliance.

The Caucasus, where Russia fought two bloody Chechen wars a few decades ago and lost thousands of soldiers, is also spattered with the blood of innocent civilians and terrorists. Therefore, the officially presented details of the exercise scenario that “joint forces will learn to coordinate actions against terrorists” should come as no surprise. Yet it is the ambitions, the actual number of participants, the disagreements, and the random timing that show that this exercise completes a multi-year cycle of test forces, command centers, the ability to maneuver rapidly and redeploy units by the thousands. miles away: the exercise space itself is no longer important.

Ordinary tricks with numbers

There is no shortage of symbolism in the exercise. The official start of the exercise is September 21, when the 640th anniversary of the Battle of Kulikov will be commemorated in Russia according to the old Orthodox calendar.

This short-lived Moscow victory in 1380 against the forces of the Golden Horde, which was not assisted by the Grand Duke of Lithuania Jogaila, is celebrated pompously in the Kremlin to this day, as it is one of the most popular starting points. important from which the rise of Moscow is measured.

Since then, it has intermittently expanded from a modest duchy to an empire, Moscow has grown into a giant state, and Russia remains the largest country in the world by area. So to organize exercises over tens of thousands. km of landfills, in different time zones, in different seas and oceans, is a major challenge.

On the other hand, even officially, the Caucasus 2020 exercise area is also a major challenge for observers: thousands of troops will train in Russia’s southern military district, that is, at least six training grounds, including occupied Crimea. and Abkhazia and South Ossetia, separated by Russia from Sakartwell. International observers cannot even enter here, as these are non-Russian territories under international law. In addition, the exercise was open only to spaces in the Black and Caspian Seas.

The number of participants, as in previous Zapad or Vostok exercises, according to official Kremlin data, does not exceed 12.9 thousand in Vienna, but even this time the Kremlin does not hide the fact that the actual total number of participants is several times higher, although The forces assigned to the exercise “Caucasus 2020” do not exceed 12.9 thousand.

“In total, more than 80 thousand people will participate in the exercise. people, including combat units, logistical and technical support, national guards, civil defense, emergency departments. However, no task force will be assigned to an operations headquarters from the one foreseen in the Vienna documents, that is, 12.9 thousand ”, the trick applied in the previous year has already been openly appointed by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, General Alexander Fomin.

Both in 2017. During the Zapad, both in 2018. During the Vostok exercise, Russia used different tactics: in the first case it lied about the real number of participants (reduced them), because in addition to the official exercise events and the fields training, at least several times as many soldiers trained together, and during the Vostok exercise Russia inflated the number of participants to several hundred thousand troops, although the actual number is likely to be less than 100,000.

“However, to achieve maximum transparency, we are inviting the defense ministers of some countries or their representatives to the final maneuver phase at the Kapustin Jaro training ground,” said Fomin. The final part of any exercise, usually a demonstration, for special guests such as country leaders, ministers, or diplomats is a separate performance that has little to do with actual exercises, military unit movements, or exercise scenarios.

Fight terrorists with aviation

They are also confusing, as in previous maneuvers of a similar size. In the first phase, for example, the Russian-led forces will learn to “repel attacks by international terrorists and deliver devastating blows.” And if such a scenario were still possible and seen in the Caucasus, the second phase removes any doubt that Russia is preparing to go to war with its allies: “the aerospace forces of supporters of terrorism will take a hit.”

A few years ago such sayings would have elicited laughter, but this time during A. Fomin’s official presentation of the exercise, the defense attaché just carefully wrote down every significant sentence from the general: too many coincidences in the actual rhetoric of the exercise participants.

Attacks on conventional forces – that is, aircraft, armored units, radars, and other non-terrorist infrastructure – are not new to Russian military exercise scenarios. For example, the hits of the Iskander and Točka-U ballistic missiles were simulated both during Zapad 2017 and during subsequent exercises. For their part, NATO countries have been preparing to withstand these clashes for several years, especially in the Kaliningrad region, where the Iskander ballistic missile systems are deployed.

In turn, Russian forces were preparing to repel similar attacks in the Astrakhan region before the Caucasus 2020: the exercise simulated the impact of 70 ballistic and cruise missiles, which were to be repelled by Russia’s anti-aircraft defenses. And if such actions have already become commonplace, this time the strategic-level exercise “Caucasus 2020” takes place under completely different conditions, and the context is much more sensitive.

Will Ukraine or Belarus benefit?

In July, Ukrainian intelligence issued a disturbing message that Russia would use the Caucasus 2020 exercise: during or after, if units did not return to permanent locations just before the US elections, they would take advantage of the ongoing crisis in Belarus with an invasion. military without rays. from the Sea of ​​Azov, Mariupol is occupied, so it would be possible to ensure an uninterrupted supply of electricity and water to Crimea.

There is currently no confirmation of such alerts. However, a new and very real situation is in Belarus, which is increasingly escalated by the Aliaksandr Lukashenko regime, which seeks to stay in power after rigged presidential elections. It is Moscow that supports him and Lukashenko’s unusually strict anti-Western rhetoric.

At the same time as Exercise Caucasus 2020, tactical exercises of Russian and Belarusian soldiers with Russian paratroopers continue in Belarus, near Brest. Mr. Lukashenko, NATO experts and officials, are simply bragging about the need for more joint military training and so-called “border surveillance”.

However, such a bluff has its own risky price, because during previous elections, the country’s veteran leader had never taken such aggressive actions against neighbors, not even in the sense of rhetoric. Lukashenko’s speeches about alleged border provocations, the readiness of his country’s forces to resist attacks by NATO special forces and armored vehicles, allusions to World War II received more moderate and cautious evaluations, trying not to provoke the unpredictable and increasingly unpredictable. further away.

However, Lukashenko himself appears to be ignoring such a moderate Western stance and tends to aggravate the situation. Furthermore, this time, in addition to the use of military power in his rhetoric, Lukashenko has already shown that he himself, together with the Russian forces, tends to attack opponents: in early September, the Belarusian army publicly tested tactical ballistic missiles ” Tochka-U “.

The old missiles have not been fired for many years, but it was no accident that the demonstration of the missiles tested in Russia, at the Kapustin Yar landfill, was shown on the Belarusian state channel. It is true that the missile sank within a few tens of meters from the intended target, but the decision alone to demonstrate not only the shot itself, but also the moment of impact, is noteworthy.

In addition to the Belarusian missile complexes, hundreds of Belarusian troops are also participating in the Caucasus 2020 exercise, although India and Azerbaijan, who did not even participate, are not here.

India has formally renounced the coronavirus situation and the delicate situation to avoid encounters with Chinese and Pakistani troops in countries with which New Delhi does not agree. The alleged reason for India’s non-participation is pressure from the United States, as Washington’s relations with India, which have improved in recent years and are mutually beneficial in financial and military terms, are becoming an additional pretext for disagreements with Moscow.

Azerbaijan has not given any reason, but its observers, such as Turkish soldiers from a NATO country, will participate in exercise Caucasus 2020 as observers. However, the Caucasus 2020 exercise itself should show who Russia’s true allies are and how much they tend to support Moscow in an imaginary conflict.

For example, China, considered a traditional ally of Russia, has not sent the most capable units to the exercise, as some of them are concentrated on the border with India. However, the Kremlin does not hide the fact that the Caucasus 2020 exercise is not primarily a phase of Allied loyalty, but a test of the Russian forces themselves. If it becomes a real test provoked by Lukashenko, Moscow will be ready to act.