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In times of pandemic, climate change and global recession, major powers are turning ties between countries into weapons with which countries punish each other.
China has threatened not to provide medical supplies to European countries that do not support it politically. The United States threatens economic sanctions aimed at establishing a European policy towards Iran.
Turkey threatens to send refugees to Europe if the EU does not pay or support Libya. And Russia is interfering in our elections and politicizing its gas reserves.
Van der Leyen’s nearly 90-minute speech in three languages did not mention the concept of a geopolitical commission.
A survey commissioned by the European Council on International Relations (ECFR) shows that, as a result of these changes, most people on the Old Continent realized that maintaining national sovereignty in an increasingly dangerous world requires action.
63 percent. Europeans would like closer cooperation in Europe on COVID-19. Even in the less pro-European Member States, including France (52%), Sweden (51%) and Denmark (53%), more than half of the respondents had this opinion.
Despite this clear demand from citizens, von der Leyen’s nearly 90-minute speech in three languages did not mention the concept of a geopolitical commission.
“Reuters” / “Scanpix” nuotr./Ursula von der Leyen
He presented a list of issues, but did not mention the need for Europe to reconsider its common approach to geopolitics.
What happened? Why has it been so difficult to create the “Geopolitical Commission” that von der Leyen promised last year? The European Economic Recovery Plan should help Europe recover, become more sovereign and greener. But to achieve this, von der Leyen will have to address two key questions.
The first is the EU Member States. All Member States say they want a more geopolitical Europe, but most make it clear that they want the EU to take their geopolitical problems more seriously.
In the case of the eastern states, this means a focus on Russia; in the case of the southern states, this means focusing on the problems of the Mediterranean; other countries are interested in the Balkans or Turkey; For much of northern Europe, this means protecting the EU from damage caused by Chinese trade.
„Scanpix“ / ITAR-TASS nuotr./Xi Jinpingas
Of course, the President of the Commission does not control the Member States, especially in matters of national security.
However, for the EU to take more geopolitical measures in the face of such fragmentation, it needs a mechanism to prioritize such issues.
It would guarantee solidarity between the Member States on issues that do not concern them and would resolve disputes when the Member States do not agree.
A geopolitical approach means using all available management tools to achieve geopolitical goals.
Recognizing this problem, Mr. von der Leyen’s speech proposes the introduction of qualified majority voting on foreign policy issues, at least on human rights and sanctions.
“Reuters” / “Scanpix” nuotr./Ursula von der Leyen
This is an important step, but it only gets you to ignore stubborn states. A better way to ignore the views of Member States on issues that concern them is to give all EU Member States the feeling that Europe is the first line of defense in these areas and that they will lose something important if they weaken the EU in other areas that concern them less.
The second problem is the EU bureaucratic apparatus in Brussels, which is nominally controlled by von der Leyen. A geopolitical approach means using all available management tools to achieve geopolitical goals.
So the United States can use its defensive relationship with Europeans and demand trade preferences, while China is using its dominant position in medical supplies to punish the Dutch for their policy towards Taiwan.
However, the EU was created to prevent precisely this kind of crossover phenomenon and there is no process to achieve it. The idea that a trade agreement between the EU and a third country, for example, would benefit from geopolitical concessions is incomprehensible to those who are judged on the quality of the trade agreements.
It is not surprising that little attention was paid to this internal problem in Mr. von der Leyen’s speech, but it is very important in the construction of a geopolitical Europe.
Everyone in Brussels recognizes that a geopolitical approach requires more coordination on all issues, but everyone is convinced that it is one organization or another that needs to coordinate.
It is logical that the European External Action Service, headed by Joseph Borrell, is the most obvious candidate. I lost the opportunity not to give it more power.
“Reuters” / “Scanpix” nuotr./Josepas Borrellis
The Recovery Plan enables the EU to invest in building a more sovereign Europe on issues that concern its citizens. Instead of spending so much money unnoticed through the Structural and Cohesion Funds, the EU should set a clear objective of investing in the infrastructure of a sovereign Europe.
The ECFR survey showed that support for action on climate change has increased during the pandemic.
These could include common stocks of medical equipment to deal with future pandemics, well-maintained databases for artificial intelligence training, investments in infrastructure to promote energy independence and the low-carbon transition, and defense projects and investments. sets.
These ideas are already receiving a lot of support. The ECFR survey showed that support for action on climate change has increased during the pandemic.
60 percent. Spanish voters said their support for meeting climate commitments increased during the coronavirus crisis. Mr von der Leyen presented some of these ideas in his speech, but without focusing on the geopolitical aspects of these initiatives, they are likely to be hampered by competition between Member States and the Brussels institutions.
The term of Mr. von der Leyen has recently started. Certainly, the EU would not have become a geopolitical player in one or even five years.
However, as von der Leyen pointed out, the world is not waiting for the EU to decide that Europe’s strategic sovereignty is disappearing every day.
The institutional basis for success can now be established. The EU has all the means to make that happen. To realize this potential, Mr de Leyen must take into account the fact that there are powerful interests in the Member States and in Brussels that understand the idea of geopolitics differently than he does.
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Jeremy Shapiro is the Research Director of the European Council on International Relations. He previously served as Special Advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia in the US Department of State.
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