The true cost of a pandemic: 25 years of progress in 25 weeks

Not only has the pandemic halted progress, it has taken a step back in areas such as lifting people out of poverty and improving conditions for women and children around the world, according to the Bill Foundation’s annual Goalkeepers report. and Melinda Gates on Monday.

Vaccination coverage, considered a good indicator of the functioning of health systems, has fallen to the level last recorded in the 1990s, the report explains.

“In other words, we were knocked out about 25 years ago in about 25 weeks. What the world will do in the coming months will determine very important things in the future, ”says the report.

Global action to halt the pandemic and prevent COVID-19 morbidity and deaths has put other things at risk: the crisis has set back and reversed advances in global poverty, the spread of HIV, malnutrition, education and many more. Even if the world manages to get the coronavirus under control in the near future, it may take several years to try to make up for lost progress.

“We have reached a crucial moment in terms of solving the problem and its long-term impact,” Mark Suzman, director of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, told Politico.

According to him, if the coronavirus vaccine is developed and distributed successfully in the next year and a half or a similar period, it will be possible to return to the pre-pandemic situation in about one or two years. However, in some developing countries, it may take longer to reverse the effects of the economic downturn because they don’t have the opportunity to invest in their economies as much as rich countries, Suzman explains.

Every year since the first publication in 2017. The Goalkeepers report welcomed the progress made in fighting poverty and disease in developing countries, Suzman said.

This year, however, the report announces how poor the current situation is.

After 20 years of steady progress, nearly 37 million would be added this year. people are extremely impoverished and have to get by on less than $ 1.90 (about 1.6 euros) a day, according to the report. “Staying below the poverty line is an euphemism, in fact, it means that at every moment you have to take advantage of the last of your time for your family to survive,” the report says.

These recently impoverished people appear to be predominantly women, mainly in undeclared jobs in low- and middle-income countries.

But that’s not the end of the bad news that the coronavirus brings to women.

“COVID-19 will indirectly cause more suffering and death to women than men, mainly because the pandemic has affected prenatal, postnatal and postnatal care,” the report says. Newborns are also at risk, as more babies tend to die when health systems face obstacles; this is what is happening in the world now.

According to the World Health Organization and UNICEF, children are also at risk for life-threatening diseases such as diphtheria, tetanus or pertussis, with a significant reduction in the number of three doses of DTaP vaccine recorded in the first four months of 2020 for the first time in almost 30 years.

In addition, outbreaks can affect not only children’s health but also their education.

“Evidence from the Ebola epidemic in West Africa suggests that girls are less likely to reopen schools, depriving them not only of their opportunities but also of their future children,” the report said.

The first signs of this situation are already being seen in places like Malawi.

HIV-infected adolescents trapped at home due to the pandemic closing schools and pregnant children are now common in Malawi, says Grace Ngulube, a 25-year-old HIV activist from Blantyre, the second largest city in Malawi. When schools open, they will sit at home and have to take care of their children, explains the activist.

Mr. Ngulube works with an association in the country for young people living with HIV or who have already been born with the disease. According to her, some of them are afraid to go to youth clinics for treatment and help for their mental health, as they had before the pandemic. Those who have the opportunity to come must wear a mask, and for some young people who have lost their jobs, it can be too expensive to buy something like that, says Ngulube.

“A lot of young people are in a really difficult situation and some of them have had to engage in prostitution or other forms of sex to get a reward,” says Ngulube. Such things can cause the spread of HIV.

According to UNAIDS, 2018. in the country almost one in ten aged 15 to 49 years. elderly person was infected with HIV. Total 2018 In Malawi, with a population of 18 million, one million people have been infected with HIV.

Recent model studies suggest that deaths from HIV, tuberculosis and malaria could double next year as a result of the pandemic, destroying decades of progress, according to a report by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria on Monday. It also states that there could be a million and a half more AIDS deaths worldwide compared to 2018, in which case the world would almost revert to 2008 level.

In an effort to prevent this, representatives of the Indian AIDS Alliance began calling citizens returning to their homes after the country’s closure to report where the nearest antiretroviral treatment facilities are, Alianza spokeswoman Rosenara Huidrom says. The field workers provided the necessary treatment to those who had a particular fear of being infected with the coronavirus, thus avoiding going to the institutions. India ranks third in the world in terms of the number of people living with HIV and second in terms of the number of coronavirus cases.

Richer countries need to work with low- and middle-income countries to understand how to help, said Anthony, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a lead expert for the White House Coronavir Task Force, at a recent virtual event hosted by Friends of the Global Fight. Fauci.

According to the White House Task Force on Coronavir, of which he is an expert, “a particular disorder in the prevention and treatment of disease” in the United States and elsewhere is not considered a priority, although “it should be,” he said. Fauci.

This year’s Goalkeepers report is based on preliminary data collected so far by the organization’s partner, the Institute for Health Data and Evaluation (IHME). The full image will only be visible in 2021.

Data for 2020 is based on smartphone surveys and telephone interviews with 70,000 people. people from 82 countries, although not all countries were representative respondents. Other data include information on the number of people who receive health services each month, the number of tourists arriving, employment data, and personal mobility plans.

The Institute for Health Data and Assessment has modeled what could happen by 2021 based on what has happened so far. before the end of the year, including the assumption that people would react to the new restrictions in the same way they had reacted in the past.