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ygimantas Mauricas, Chief Economist at Luminor Photo by Judita Grigelyts (V).
2020 Lithuania’s economy will grow by 0.2%, making Lithuania one of the few EU countries to avoid economic downturn in 2020, Luminor economists predict.
The text has been supplemented in the second chapter, the macroeconomic indicators forecast table has been added.
Our optimism is based on the latest retail, industry and bank card billing data, suggesting that the V recovery is still ongoing, according to a comment from the bank.
Luminor analysts forecast that the decline in GDP in the Baltic states will be short-lived this year, with rapid economic growth of 4.4% next year.
[infogram id=”713a62f6-9529-4012-b9eb-5e08e62a7fe0″ prefix=”LF0″ format=”interactive” title=”Skirtingos BVP prognozs 2020 09 14″]Lithuania is among the least affected
The Baltic countries, Poland, partly Germany, as well as the northern countries formed the bubbles that suffered the least from the coronavirus, said Ygimantas Mauricas, Luminor’s chief economist, in presenting the forecast on Tuesday.
According to him, Ireland, whose economy. meter. In the second quarter, the EU was the one that fell the least, rescued by exports. Lithuanian exports have suffered less and a narrow Europe, which is the main export market, is on the mend. As an example, the economist mentions the furniture industry, which was really scared at the beginning of the pandemic, but furniture and log houses continue to travel to Scandinavia from Lithuania.
When there is a demand for such a country house, say in Denmark, which grew by 12%, our exports there are also growing, said economist Luminor.
. Maurice says that the global and EU context predicts a K-shaped economic shift after a pandemic.
The Scandinavian and Baltic countries are expected to experience a particularly rapid V-shaped recovery, Western and Central Europe a slightly slower U-shaped recovery, the southern European countries a long and slow L-shaped recovery, and a Russia’s left-leaning recovery ().
He also said that it would not double, so that some sectors would no longer be there before the crisis, even after the crisis, due to structural and consumption change. The biggest changes will be the growing popularity of telecommuting or email. trade, but the boom will affect sectors such as computing, real estate, commerce, tourism or industry. Those countries that are able to adapt more quickly to the changing business environment will have much better growth opportunities.
Stop the horses yourself in time
The real crisis has not yet started and the money has not yet begun to be distributed. And we in the EU will get more than we thought before the pandemic, pridr. Mauricas.
According to him, Lithuania has a pretty good balance and how to distribute that money efficiently.
How to use that money. It will also be important to stop the horses themselves, because no one outside will control us, said the economist. . Maurice added that the European Commission and other EU member states will continue to apply fiscal discipline, as the worst affected countries in southern Europe now need financial freedom (borrowing and borrowing). And the northern European countries will have to fend for themselves.
On Monday, the Finance Ministry updated its forecast and now predicts that the Lithuanian economy in 2020 will increase by 1.5% and the country’s GDP will increase by 3.3% next year. Birel’s Finance Ministry predicted that GDP will fall 7% and grow 7.3% next year.
Vilius apoka, the finance minister, says that this year we will have a deficit and next year we will have to freeze unnecessary releases.
We must be careful and protect the most vulnerable first. When planning the budget, it is important not to increase unnecessary costs, change the structure of the economy and invest in the future and create added value, emphasized V. Apoka.
. Mauricas describes FM’s forecast for next year as extremely concise and conservative and believes that the recovery will be faster.
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