How to understand the news that Putin’s ratings are going to record lows?

During the new coronavirus pandemic in many countries, including lithuania, there is a kind of “focus on the flag” effect. It manifests itself in a fairly significant increase in the popularity of rulers.

In Germany, the ratings of one of the ruling parties, the Union of Christian Democrats, reached up to 40% in opinion polls. Only 15% would vote for the closest persecutors: the Social Democrats and the Greens. voters.

In the Netherlands, Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s party has grown in popularity by as much as a dozen percentage points in a matter of weeks. In March and April, the ceiling was even hit by the qualifications of the political politician Giuseppe Conte, the head of the Italian government.

Finally, French President Emmanuel Macron, whose popularity has been severely damaged by major reforms initiated, was able to receive a brief wave of positive opinions.

In such a leadership club, Putin is certainly not present: this crisis is not good for him in a political sense. Only 59 percent appreciate their work. Russian, was announced last week by the independent Yuri Levada Center for Sociological Research.

Old recipes don’t work

Putin has not seen such low ratings as president. In June 2000 and November 2013, their work was positively evaluated at 61 percent. Russian.

Additionally, there was a VTsIOM state sociological survey, which showed that only 28 percent trust the president. Russian: at least in the last 14 years. Of course, in democracies, such an indicator would even be called robust, but Russia is not a democracy.

The line between Moscow’s liberal rebels and conservative voters in smaller cities and towns, which form the core of Putin’s supporters, is disappearing.

According to the Levada Center, Putin is more reliable than Russian women, citizens with secondary education and the elderly.

Nothing new. However, the line between Moscow’s liberal rebels and conservative voters in the smaller cities and towns that form the core of Putin’s supporters is blurred, Toth-Czifra notes.

Such survey results could easily be explained by the fact that the president simply sat in the back seat during a coronavirus pandemic.

Putin was not wrong, as was British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He did not show that he did not understand what this crisis was about, like the President of the United States, Donald Trump. But in reality he delegated responsibility for crisis management in the regions, and there is no rush to promise financial assistance to citizens.

“It just came to our attention then.” If we don’t count the first few weeks of the crisis, Putin is highly visible in the media, announcing several positive decisions, occasionally insulting subordinates, “says A. Toth-Czifra.

These Putin’s performances are a little bit different, naked Versions of Direct Line, a carefully organized annual television question-and-answer marathon.

In that show, the president also swears in public officials and instantly solves all problems, from mending potholed streets to reviving falling marriages. But while Putin tries to be active, the old recipes no longer work.

nobody knows what to do

In fact, for several years now, the Russians have been increasingly unfavorable to Putin and increasingly less confident of him. So the dog was not only hung in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic.

Three years ago, in March 2017, a year before the end of Putin’s third term and the gradual end of the so-called “Crimean Consensus,” the President’s work was positively evaluated by as much as 82 percent. Russian.

In November of the same year, 59 percent. The Russians said they named Putin among the 5-6 politicians they trust the most. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was in second place at the time, received such an assessment of only 23 percent. surveyed

But such indicators began to decline in 2018 and continue to decline. In March last year, when pension reform hit a public relations catastrophe and protests erupted after Russia, the president’s ratings were already only 64 percent and the confidence gauge was only 41 percent.

However, there is a significant difference between the two trajectories. Putin’s popularity appears to have remained as high as 60 percent. limit, but public confidence in the president has dropped as much as 13 percent in a year. points. And that should cause the biggest headache in the Kremlin.

“Putin is often said to be more of an institution than a political figure.

What this means is rarely explained if we disregard the myth of the national leader, who is above the debilitating state of attention, “says A. Toth-Czifra.

According to the analyst, Putin as an institution is probably best explained in terms of the crisis of political responsibility that has plagued Russia for the past decade.

Russia’s apparatus of government is becoming more centralized, which means that many regions are headed by governors who are neither popular nor have political or fiscal powers.

For a long time, the most powerful decision maker in Russia has been the Presidential Administration, so the influence of the government has been weakened: the responsibilities of major ministries and institutions have been transferred to credible technocrats and the security elite.

Failed experiment?

“Putin is the only visible and tangible political force for both citizens and lower-ranking officials.

This, in turn, means that presidential interventions are increasingly aimed at solving local problems, from electoral fraud in the Primorsk region to the suspension of church construction in Yekaterinburg, ”writes Toth-Czifra.

This does not mean that Putin is doing all of this. This means that Russians are asked to believe that the president will solve the problem if it cannot be resolved locally, that the president’s instructions are always followed.

“It just came to our attention then. The coronavirus pandemic is a crisis that Putin’s Russia has not yet faced. No one knows what to do.

Toth-Czifra: “The great experiment intended to elevate Putin over the system failed. And the consequences will come as soon as the crisis is over. “

Many people look at Putin, but he does not offer solutions for himself and does not issue specific instructions, he only urges lower-ranking officials to find solutions for themselves. And when he orders something, his instructions are not always followed, ”says A. Toth-Czifra.

As an example, he cites a petition published on the Internet by Russian doctors asking the government to pay for the supplements promised by Putin a month ago.

Doctors say they do not question the president’s decisions, but his ability to implement them. This, according to the analyst, and is the difference between approval For Putin’s work and trust President.

The analyst also quotes Svetlana Shomov, a political scientist at the Moscow School of Economics, who pointed out in early May that Putin failed to separate his qualifications and image from reality, even with great effort.

“Putin will not be leaving soon.” The same survey conducted by the Levada Center shows that no one trusts more than the president, and appetite for major political change is decreasing during crises. Even constitutional reform is supported by more Russians than a month ago.

But it seems that the great experiment aimed at elevating Putin over the system has failed. And the consequences will appear as soon as the crisis ends, “says A. Toth-Czifra.