[ad_1]
Starting with the report, the economist first reviewed the coronavirus situation in Lithuania and the world. He estimated that, based on available data, today as many people are infected per day as during the April peak, but the situation is still different from before.
As explained, the difference is that today fewer people end up in intensive care units, with fewer deaths. This, he said, is for several reasons.
As he said, it is possible that the virus is more common today among young people, who are more likely to contract the disease, and that health authorities are better prepared for the spread.
Speaking about the economy, N. Mačiulis assured that in China, where the spread of the virus began, the economic recovery is rapid, although there was an economic recession before the introduction of the quarantine. As he added, the impact of the pandemic on economies as a whole was very different.
“The European Union (EU) has had countries like Spain, France and Italy, where the economy has contracted by a fifth.
This is more than during the global financial crisis, “he said, but clarified that Lithuania is currently the smallest country in the EU to experience an economic recession in the first half of this year.
It is true that this, as they said, meant that the spread of the virus slightly affected the population, and they quickly wanted to return to normal life, since consumption had already returned to pre-crisis levels in May. This was also due to the favorable export structure.
“Looking at the economic indicators of the euro area, we see that according to some indicators it can also be said that it will be a V-shaped crisis, a very deep fall, but also a sudden recovery. German economic outlook expectations look especially interesting. They are at their highest level in at least 10 years and there are clearly good reasons for this.
Why is economic activity getting back to where it was so fast?
One reason, as I mentioned, is that the virus is no longer as dangerous and deadly, and another is that the growth rate of global debt is unprecedented this year and debt is likely to grow by tens of trillions of dollars. , the debt / GDP ratio will approach 300%. GDP, ”said the economist, saying that this was because governments did what they did not do after today’s global financial crisis: distribute money to the population.
“I don’t think there are negative economic consequences here, there is no drop in GDP or employment, I don’t worry about that. You have to worry about state capitalism, about the role that governments and central banks have played.
Governments share unearned money, they borrow as if they had never borrowed it, “he said, assuring him that public debt had reached levels where it could be said they would never pay it off.
The economist also asked why, in the opinion of others, the unemployment rate in Lithuania had risen so strongly, even though it had stopped growing in May and the situation had not changed until mid-June.
“In mid-June the allocation per job seeker appeared and the unemployment rate began to rise. 30 thousand people registered in the Employment Service. individuals who had never existed before and came to take that money. The number of vacancies now reaches 20,000, which has never been the case in Lithuania. It should be concerned about those things, not about the drop in GDP, ”said N. Mačiulis.
According to him, there is quite open talk about the fact that the value of available money may fall.
“2 percent. Inflation is no longer enough. Higher inflation will be necessary to reduce the real debt burden, so that Greece or Italy can be expected to reduce their debt and be solvent. This is dangerous state capitalism. , where central banks establish funds, buy companies and governments decide which ones to bail out.
<...> Anyway, to many it seems a lot that they share money left and right, they also gave it to me for the children, for a large family, but history shows that such practices do not lead to a good path, so I am worried ”, said. that financial markets also show that inflation will be.
It is strictly prohibited to use the information published by DELFI on other websites, in the media or elsewhere, or to distribute our material in any way without consent, and if consent has been obtained, it is necessary to cite DELFI as the source.
[ad_2]
