The differences between the main competitors are melting: Skvernelis, which is at the top of the rankings, warns: it is possible to burn

The biggest changes in the evaluations of political leaders were when comparing the data from February and March. Then, the assessment of Prime Minister S. Skvernelis, Minister of Health Aurelijus Veryga and myself. Šimonytė, the main alternative to occupy the post of Prime Minister, was shot upwards.

For example, in February, Veryga’s rating was just 0.3 percent, and in March it increased to 4.1 percent, and Skvernel’s rating improved from 6.5 percent. to 13.5 percent, and me. Šimonytė – from 14.2 percent. up to 18.4 percent. Respondents were asked which politician or public figure would be in the best position to serve as Prime Minister.

Comparing the data for March and April, there are no such significant changes. 3.1 percent of the research results. Only S. Skvernel’s rating growth exceeded the error. His rating grew from 13.5 percent. 16.8 percent, according to a survey commissioned by public opinion and market research firm Spinter tyrimai on the Delfi news portal April 20-30.

In this way, the difference between S. Skvernelis and I. Šimonytė, who was in the first place, melted into less than the error of the investigation results. In April, I. Šimonytė received 18.5 percent support. surveyed

“The stabilization of the ratings is partly related to a stable crisis situation. And the increasing ratings of S. Skvernelis should be attributed to the great attention that the Prime Minister and the entire Government receive during this crisis,” commented the professor of the Vilnius University Faculty of Communication (VU KF), head of the doc of the Digital Media Laboratory Dr. Andrius Šuminas.

Skvernel properties were highlighted in another light

Lithuanians, according to whom leaders express sympathy for the crisis, are not unique in the context of other countries, said Dr. Lecturer at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University. Ieva Petronytė-Urbonavičienė.

According to the researcher, in times of crisis, people need a clear and strong leader who leads by example, communicates clear decisions and sees visible results.

“There is a common saying that we have heard in recent months that ‘it is important not to speak but to do so.” Practicality, action or at least some effort to act are most valued during the crisis, ”said I. Petronytė-Urbonavičienė.

The political scientist noted that there is a trend in other countries to grant a mandate of confidence to current leaders.

“If we look at the period since the beginning of March, the popularity of the leaders of other major European countries has also increased. I am thinking of Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and others,” said I. Petronytė-Urbonavičienė.

Speaking specifically about the situation in Lithuania, the researcher noted that the characteristics of S. Skvernelis, who had long been inclined to not be very appropriate, especially in the context of the presidential elections, look very different in the current situation.

“He was labeled a police officer for being very direct, not necessarily diplomatic.” But in the context of the crisis, the qualities of his path emerged in a different light. (…) That openness, openness, clear communication serves him well as a leader in handling the crisis, ”said I. Petronytė Urbonavičienė.

Šimonytė’s rating should not be underestimated

The head of Spinter Research, sociologist Ignas Zokas, recalled that I. Šimonyt popular, the most popular leader suitable for the position of prime minister, appeared after a sufficiently successful performance in the presidential elections. And the sociologist related the strengthening of S. Skvernel’s positions with the current crisis and its management.

“That growth is over 3 percent. Dot per month shows that it looks quite favorably. It’s like, as we see in the party rankings, there are more emotions now, the tension is stronger, but the fire that raises the rankings it must be managed. Because it can burn them very fast, especially when it comes to S. Skvernel. I. Šimonytė is in a certain opposition estuary, “said I. Zokas.

The VU CF professor further stated that the health crisis due to the coronavirus was largely managed.

“Everyone was afraid to see images similar to those of Italy or Spain. That is not the case, the pandemic is under control, at least for the moment. This also adds positive points to the current Prime Minister, “said A. Šumin.

The scientist noticed that I. Šimonytė was trying to use his presence in a public space.

“However, as last year’s presidential elections finally showed, I. Šimonytė is based on the ‘ceiling’. (…) On the other hand, I. Šimonytė is not the only one trying to take the position of a critical voice He is competing with other opposition politicians, “said Schumin.

The VU TSPMI professor was unwilling to underestimate the result of I. Šimonytė.

‘ME. Šimonytė’s ratings look great. In general, under current circumstances, there is no appreciation for being in opposition. In times of crisis, people need leaders who lead, who do not speak, but act. Talking is more to opposition and action to position. The mere fact of being in a position of position or opposition in parliament gives a plus or minus in this case. (…) And me. The Šimonytė rating increase was visible in March, and was probably determined by his grateful personal qualities, ”said Petronytė-Urbonavičienė.

It is notable that the sociodemographic portraits of the supporters of I. Šimonytė and S. Skvernelis are different. The head of the Spinter tyrimai company, which conducted the survey, noted that respondents from big cities, higher education and higher incomes used to support I. Šimonytė. Residents of district centers and smaller cities were more supportive of S. Skvernel.

“In this place, the division is very much in line with the party’s preferences. Voters of the Social Democrats also support Mr. Skvernel quite well as Prime Minister.” Some friction before the elections between the Social Democrats and the “peasants” should be inevitable, “said I. Zokas.

The Blinkevičiūtė phenomenon also explains the elections of the rulers

Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, Member of the European Parliament and Social Democrat, ranked third. surveyed

The VU KF professor recalled that “V. The Blinkevičiūtė phenomenon” has been taking place since the Government was evaluated very negatively and the Minister was always evaluated very positively.

“It just caught our eye then. I haven’t recorded any of his actions in the past few months, so it’s about the historical memory that people still have. This suggests that concern for retirees has potential and can be exploited with success by politicians.

As for the current allocation of € 200, it is such an interesting decision that, like the opposition, it is brushing its teeth because it does not directly dare to vote against that decision (with one exception) and basically places the current ruling party in a privileged position, “said A. Shumin

Veryga basically maintains its popularity

The fourth in the survey is former Minister of Transport and Communications Rokas Masiulis, whose rating reached 4.2 percent. Health Minister A. Veryga’s rating did not change above the error, it was backed by 3.7 percent in April. surveyed

The assessment of the TS-LKD leader Gabrielius Landsbergis in April was 2.6%, the president of the Labor Party Viktoras Uspaskichs (2.6%), the mayor of Kaunas Visvaldas Matijošaitis (2.3%). After 2.2 percent. Former European Commissioner, Social Democrat Vytenis Povilas Andriukaitis, LVŽS President Ramūnas Karbauskis, and MEP Andrius Kubilius considered the most suitable for the post of Prime Minister.

The government maintains the people’s trust.

The largest change in the government’s assessment was also seen when comparing data for February and March. Then, the proportion of positive and more positive government evaluations increased by 18.8%. point – 24.3 percent. up to 43.1 percent. And the ratio of negative and more negative evaluations decreased by 21.4 percent. from 69.1 to 47.7 percent.

The changes when comparing the April and March data are not that great. It is recorded that there was a statistically significant increase in the proportion of respondents who evaluated the work of the Government in a more negative way. The proportion of said respondents was 29.8 percent in March and 35 percent in April.

However, when the percentages of negative and negative government assessments are added together, that difference is no longer statistically significant. The proportion of these people was 47.7 percent in March and 49.3 percent in April.

The government’s work was evaluated positively and quite positively at 43.1 percent in March and 42.8 percent in April. 9.2 percent surveyed surveyed in March and 7.9 percent. – He had no opinion about it in April or did not respond.

Spinter’s chief of research was inclined to say that the government has public support during the coronavirus crisis.

“If we look at the ‘naked’ numbers, it seems that we see that the proportion of positive evaluations is less than 50 percent. But if we look at it historically, because we have been measuring this parameter for many years, seeing at what low levels were the “Previous ratings from governments, so that assessment is not only not bad, but also very good. How this change will unfold depends on how long people will find various binding measures to handle the crisis that are justified and how the economic situation will be addressed.” said I. Zokas.

The opposition is in an unenviable situation.

Five months left before the elections. According to the VU KF investigator, in the current situation the opposition seems paralyzed.

“There is a situation where the crisis is being successfully managed … and in some cases criticism of the opposition is starting to seem insignificant to those who work, something the prime minister wanted to show all the time.” As for the upcoming Seimas elections, the main question is: what will happen with the economic crisis and how much can it catch up with before the Seimas elections, “said A. Šuminas.

According to the VU KF researcher, in such a situation, the opposition needs to find ways to actively express themselves, how to fill the information space with good alternative content for the current government, which could be attractive to voters.

“They have their constituents who will vote for the conservatives. But they will need to attract undecided people. This is the biggest problem,” said A. Šumin.

The VU TSPMI professor noted that there was still a long time before the elections.

“It just came to our attention then. Some health experts say a second wave of the virus is possible in the fall. We will see what the overall situation will be like. The second is how it will be managed, it will all have a very strong effect on the ratings. It would be difficult to say that the current snapshot has clear indications for the upcoming elections, ”said I. Petronytė-Urbonavičienė.

Market research and public opinion company Spinter tyrimai conducted a public opinion survey from April 20 to 30, 2020, commissioned by the DELFI news portal, residents aged 18 to 75 participated in the survey.

Combined survey method used: 50 percent. by telephone survey, 50 percent. Internet In the case of a telephone interview, the interview is conducted by a professional interviewer. Carry out a conversation with the respondent according to the prepared questions, recording the answers in a questionnaire. In the online survey, the respondent is sent a link to the survey, which the respondent independently completes at a time convenient for him / her. The link is unique, that is, the questionnaire cannot be completed more than once.
The study surveyed 1,011 respondents. The distribution of study participants by gender, age and place of residence is proportional to the distribution of the population in Lithuania.

The error in the research results is 3.1 percent.