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Last Thursday morning, Rossija-24 television unexpectedly announced that it would broadcast an interview with President Putin on the hottest topics of recent days.
True, if someone expected to receive speeches about the poisoning of opposition activist Alexei Navaln or the ongoing mass protests in the Khabarovsk region, the viewer saw nothing of the kind.
The hottest topics were Russia’s “success” in the fight against COVID-19, the supposedly staggering Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine, economic recovery, and of course the Kremlin’s position on the events in Belarus.
Scanpix / AP Photo / Vladimir Putin
“In fact, there was real news when it came to Belarus. Putin’s thoughts on Belarus were the real reason for the whole interview,” said Petrov, who is also a professor at the Moscow School of Economics.
He waited but decided
As already announced, Putin expressed his support for Lukashenko and the latter’s plan to adopt a new constitution that would allow new parliamentary and presidential elections.
Commenting on the situation in Belarus, the Russian president added that he believed law enforcement agencies were operating in moderation, but warned here that a “pool of law enforcement officers” had already been created who could be dispatched to Lukashenko in seek help.
In addition, Putin spoke of an agreement by which Russia would allocate a billion dollars to the Lukashenko regime. a helping hand worth a dollar: if more precise, refinance the old debt.
According to Petrov, the Kremlin certainly sees the situation in Belarus in a broader context, which already includes Moscow’s geopolitical confrontation with the West.
Since last weekend, Russian state media have been speaking with one voice, saying that the protests are being driven by the West.
“At first it was a bit of a wait to see if the elite would remain loyal to Lukashenko, but in the end it was decided to side with him.
The decision was complicated by the fact that the West acted with extreme caution because it did not want to provoke Russian intervention, and by the fact that the protesters are neither pro-Western nor anti-Russian, ”the analyst writes.
According to Petrov, Moscow’s position began to change even earlier, when a team of media specialists, political strategists and “security experts” was dispatched to Belarus at Lukashenko’s request.
Since last weekend, Russian state media have been speaking with one voice, saying the protests are being driven by the West.
Used to the approach
“It is also important that the Kremlin has no reason to love Lukashenko and has enjoyed the dictatorship even for the last three weeks.
But Moscow does not want the Lukashenko regime to be overthrown, especially after the public uprising. So far, Putin is determined to help another autocrat. Forced to choose between an alliance with the Lukashenko regime and changes under public pressure, the Kremlin has clearly chosen the first option, ”Petrov said.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Aliaksandras Lukašenka
Furthermore, Putin’s declaration of support for Lukashenko came at a time when the results of a poll by the Yuri Levada Center for Sociological Research appeared: the poll showed that many Russians, like Putin, would not want any change in Belarus.
For example, up to 39 percent. respondents said the unrest in Minsk was a “provocation by Western forces”. Another 25 percent. – that we should be talking about a “provocation of the opposition”.
Only a quarter of those surveyed are positive about the protesters in Belarus. One third of those surveyed don’t care about the demo and 40% don’t. evaluates protests negatively.
Up to 39 percent. respondents said the unrest in Minsk was a “provocation by Western forces”. Another 25 percent. – that we should be talking about a “provocation of the opposition”.
Finally, although only 48 percent of Russians believe that the presidential elections in Belarus were fair, 57 percent did. He stated that he would like Lukashenko to remain the country’s president.
“Such opinions, which were certainly not formed in a single week of brainwashing on state television, lead to an even deeper depression than Putin’s remarks.
They show not a lack of empathy for neighbors, but the fact that Kremlin technologists have been able to persuade many Russians to see the world the way they need to over the years. Now the fear of “losing Belarus” overcomes the sympathy of protesting Belarusians.
Ironically, it is precisely because of this approach that Russia can lose Belarus in the same way that it already lost Ukraine, “says Petrov.
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