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The only thing is that even if the angry Belarusians succeed in ousting Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin will remain an autocrat who is constantly undermining human rights and democracy in Russia and has proposed constitutional amendments that will allow him to rule the country for life.
Will it be your turn after Lukashenko?
Let’s not be too quick to draw such conclusions. While the two presidents have similarities, it turns out that not all authoritarian leaders are drenched in a single clay.
Lukashenko came to power in the 20th century. in the 1990s as a fierce populist who vowed to take on the country’s elite. But in recent years, he doesn’t seem to be very keen on increasing popularity, so support for the population has waned and the country is experiencing crisis after crisis, including current global protests. The Belarusian economy is still dominated by the government. Any outbreak of political opposition is quickly crushed and Lukashenko’s power is almost absolute.
“It’s very personal, very sultanic,” said Ryhor Astapenia, a Chatham House employee and founder and director of research at the New Ideas Center in Belarus. “The elite do not play any important role in decision-making.”
Putin’s control system is more sophisticated, a kind of theater of democracy, in which public opinion is closely watched. Although his popularity has waned, Putin has proven smart enough to reassure the most important electorate for some time. Therefore, the probability of a national uprising in the country, which will unite the Russians from Moscow to Khabarovsk, is unlikely.
Lukashenko completely abolished the mandate in a referendum in 2004. In the previous five presidential elections, he faced almost no major challenges and jailed opposition candidates for organizing street protests. Mr. Lukashenko is even proud of his authoritarianism. He claimed that it was better to be a “dictator than a homosexual.” Thus, the Belarusian leader retaliated against the then German Chancellor Guido Westerwelle, who openly demonstrated his homosexuality and described Lukashenko as “the last dictator of Europe”.
Many Belarusians use their eyes when they hear the phrase, but not because they have any illusions about the brutality of the country’s government (some 7,000 people were arrested two weeks ago after peaceful protests over the dubious election results). a simplistic cliché that dwarfs existing bold civil society, thriving arts, and a rapidly evolving tech sector. All of this is happening even under the presidential regime.
Vladimir Putin
Belarusian citizens are also reluctant to point out that Lukashenko is not the only authoritarian leader in Europe because President Putin of neighboring Russia has systematically ignored democratic and human rights norms.
Unlike Lukashenko, Putin has been working hard to prevent an unwanted seizure of power, even though he has ruled Russia for 20 years. In 2008, he reached the two-term limit, as established in the Constitution, and became interim prime minister, but was still considered head of state. The referendum initiated by the Russian president on important amendments to the Constitution ended successfully last month, so Putin has received two more terms and will be able to remain in power until 2036.
It is true that there was no legal need to hold a referendum, as legislators approved amendments to the Constitution earlier this year. On the other hand, the voting program gave Putin the much-desired brilliance of legitimacy. It is this dominance of artificial democracy that has helped Putin maintain power for two decades.
Vladimir Putin
Russia has also mastered the art of disinformation both at home and abroad. The fluid news coverage on Russian state television creates an alternate reality in which Ukraine has been kidnapped by the Nazis, homosexuals are a threat to children, and Donald Trump is likely responsible for the coronavirus pandemic.
Such misinformation is not intended to convince the Russian people of fictitious things, but “to cause confusion, paranoia and passivity in virtual reality controlled by the Kremlin.” Peter Pomerancev, a disinformation expert, wrote in The Atlantic magazine.
Unlike Russian state television, the Belarusian analog is exhaled and impoverished. “Television in Russia is much more professional just because they have more money and resources. Many Belarusians are watching this [Rusijos] television because its content is more attractive, ”explained Katsiaryna Šmatsina, a policy analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies.
A study by the Belarusian Association of Journalists in 2019 found that Russian television content accounted for almost half of the programs broadcast at the most convenient time on the basic Belarus cable television package.
Aliaksandr Lukashenko
Despite Putin’s centralized control, there are still competing forces in Russia, including the security services, oligarchs, regional elites, and the powerful Orthodox Church. “Russia is devoting a lot of resources to maintaining the ruling elite. It has a very wide distribution. Compromises are needed,” said Maria Rohava, a doctoral student at the University of Oslo in Belarus, who studies nationalism and symbolic politics in the states. Post-Soviet autocratics: While these rivals have undoubtedly made Putin’s life more difficult, a more fragmented governance system makes it easy to find a scapegoat when things are going in the wrong direction.
However, Putin should regard Lukashenko’s case as an instructive story. By resolving the term limit, the Russian leader could exceed Lukashenko’s 26-year term.
Although the world’s attention has been focused on Belarus for the past two weeks, the Kremlin has not quelled protests in the Far East, Khabarovsk. Sooner or later, Russians across the country will reach a consensus on the source of their problems.
“I think one of the factors driving Russia’s policy in Belarus is that events in the neighboring country are setting an undesirable precedent for Putin and the Kremlin,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a former British ambassador to Belarus.
Ms. Shatsina summarized the situation as follows: “It is difficult to hold power and please everyone.”
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