Bloomberg: European experiment unexpectedly yielded the opposite results



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There has been high hope that travel and social restrictions can be eased this summer, as people are less likely to get infected by enjoying the warm weather and being outdoors more often. The European economy is dependent on the tourism sector and simply couldn’t afford a season with empty sunbeds and restaurants. Airlines and hotels would collapse without new bookings and, to reassure customers, they introduced a whole host of new hygiene measures.

And people were looking forward to reuniting with friends and family.

The experiment gave unexpected opposite results. August is not over yet and the number of infections is increasing in Western Europe, while Southeast Europe, having avoided the worst effects of the initial wave of the virus, also feels stagnant.

Germany has been praised for its successful efforts to contain the spring outbreak. But now it is bringing in more than 2,000 new cases, the largest increase since April 24.

One of the most serious factors that drove that jump was the resumption of travel in Europe, with people flocking to spend the holidays or visit family and friends. Almost 40 percent. The recent cases in Germany are believed to be related to infections abroad, according to data from the Robert Koch Institute. A similar situation occurred in Italy, where almost a third of new cases were imported. Italians, on vacation in Sardinia, also brought the virus to the continent.

Furthermore, a number of infections in Europe are directly related to matches. France, which reported nearly 5,000 new infections on Sunday, says the holidays are the main source of a new wave of infections. Unsurprisingly, EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan has been called upon to resign after attending a dinner at a hotel with some 80 guests, in violation of the new coronavir protection rules in force in Ireland.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says Europe must work “at all costs” to avoid re-closing the borders. Free movement is a key aspect of the EU project, and the closing of borders in the spring contributed to the collapse of economic productivity. However, politicians cannot ignore the fact that people contract the virus abroad and bring it home.

For those not traveling abroad, domestic business owners who have already gone through a quarantine through no fault of their own, and medical personnel who have to treat another cohort of COVID-19 patients, this course of events is particularly frustrating and frustrating. . The answer is one: much more active testing and screening of returning travelers, and much stricter rules for mass gatherings.

Fortunately, the number of new hospitalizations and deaths is only a fraction of the scale recorded in the spring, as more cases are now being recorded among young people who have mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic at all.

The trend towards more import cases is associated with a slightly improved testing system. At the end of the summer travel season, the problem of returning travelers should go away on its own. But the economic damage caused by this new jump is already significant. Relatively slow data for eurozone services released on Friday and Ryanair Holdings Plc’s decision to cut its fall flight hours show consumers are becoming more cautious. The list of countries required to comply with quarantine measures is expanding.

In addition, there is a risk that infections will spread from the young to the elderly and that schools and kindergartens may be closed again – a nightmare for all parents and finance ministers.

In the two weeks since the offices opened, more than 40 schools in Berlin have already reported cases of infection, forcing students and teachers to self-quarantine, according to the Associated Press (AP).

Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron are determined to avoid further quarantines, but stress the need to manage the situation. There are many ways that governments can control the situation without introducing new draconian measures. It is vital that everyone coming from a high risk area get tested. The tests are free for travelers returning to Germany. However, local health authorities do not always have the capacity to screen returning passengers to ensure that they are screened or quarantined. There are reports of long waits to get the test results.

In Germany, the number of infections also increased among parents and children returning from Southeast Europe. Efforts by the German travel association DRB to blame migrants and justify tourists opting for vacation packages have been rigorous and ineffective. Popular vacation destinations also feature prominently on the imported case list.

In Germany, the jump in weddings and private parties has hardly surprised anyone, as the rules for gathering friends and family in the Länder are very different.

The Länder can set their own recommendations, and some of them are too liberal: in Berlin, up to 500 people can choose indoors. England, by contrast, limits private gatherings to a maximum of 30 people, and the government threatens fines of £ 10,000 ($ 13,000) for infractions. Ireland has tightened restrictions to gather just six people indoors.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn is right in saying that if we have to choose between opening schools and throwing parties and attending mass celebrations, then the choice is obvious. Germany and other countries with a growing number of infections should learn from Airbnb Inc., a home rental platform that has prohibited parties from accessing rented premises and announced that security requirements could accommodate up to 16 people in a single place.

If Europe does not absorb essentials adequately, countries may be forced to take additional unpopular measures to protect their populations, such as encouraging older people to stay home and away from younger relatives. The fall and winter months will not be easy, but if you take action now, you can avoid unnecessary difficulties.



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