Political scientist: Belarus will find itself at a crossroads with three paths

The Belarusian struggle for the right to choose their own power is described as riots. And Aliaksandr Lukashenko himself says that nothing special is happening in the country. The president of the Central Election Commission, Lidija Yermoshina, announced her victory on the day of the elections. And since the night of August 9, people from all walks of life have been taking to the streets of cities across Belarus, dissatisfied with the fact that their voice was not heard during the elections.

Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians do not believe that the election results have been fairly counted and demanded recognition of the victory of the opposition candidate Sviatliana Tichanouskaya. The response to the peaceful protests is being prepared by a state force apparatus that provokes violence and coercion.

The authorities did their best to keep the election under observation as little as possible. The Internet connection was blocked for three days in the country (what was the loss and why did you decide to send your employees from the largest IT company in the country, a separate issue). So far, some of the anti-government media pages on the Internet are down. Beltelecom warns that there will be problems in the coming days. If we were to believe Mr. Lukashenko’s version, the Internet in the country was disconnected from the outside to provoke protests and provoke conflicts.

On the night of Friday, August 14, Information Minister Luckis seemed to have invited the journalistic community to consolidate as if it were nowhere. And such a cynical call comes at a time when non-state Belarusian media workers are being detained, beaten, left without vehicles, and losing cameras and cameras in the country. And that’s not all, the blood of many journalists has already been spilled. In addition, most of the foreign journalists did not make it to Belarus. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry has not granted them accreditation, and those still at risk are unceremoniously expelled from where they arrived.

Power is at war in the streets with peaceful people. Special means are used: tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, audible flares. More than 6 thousand. detained. Quite a few have not heard from their loved ones since Saturday, August 8. Many were injured in hospitals. How accurately you are unlikely to be able to count. Doctors say that even the use of non-lethal ammunition can in many cases lead to serious health problems or even death. And it already has. Currently, several journalists are conducting investigations to find out who these people are, such as those who torture detainees in solitary confinement. Military special forces are believed to have been used to fight peaceful protesters.

The authorities are doing their best to further escalate the violence, but are blaming the Belarusians themselves for demanding a fair election. State media play an active role. It exclusively broadcasts one view and maliciously ignores what is actually happening in the country. No representative of the protesters had the floor during the protests. President Alexander Lukashenko, as during his presidency, says that only a small group of people led by protesters expelled from the country is unhappy. According to the official authorities, they include people directly related to Viktor Babarika, who did not travel before the elections and is currently in custody, and even his lawyer has not had access to him since 7 August.

State television shows the alleged confessions of the protest organizers, and the released detainees report in detail to the objective media the ways in which they were tortured. The protesters are called drug addicts, repeat offenders, well, worst-case scenario, maybe all normal Belarusians, but like hand-controlled puppets abroad.

On Friday, August 14, when thousands of demonstrations were held throughout the country and employees of various companies joined the solidarity chain, signed petitions, claims and warnings that they were going to strike, state television continued to speak about the harvest. this year and Lukashenko’s meeting with construction officials. development of the sector.

Authorities are trying to give the impression that they don’t even notice the protests, hoping they will just breathe out and call it the simplest unauthorized actions. Belarus’ Deputy Interior Minister Maj. Gen. Aliaksandr Barsukov says there is no violence or coercion, although those on duty in detention centers say they have heard their tortured loved ones scream in pain. Photographs of badly beaten Belarusians travel the world, from the stories told by those released from the isolators, the blood sticks in the veins.

“Today I saw these victims, patients, without shoelaces, with irreversibly damaged clothing, but still smiling, with large bruises, up to half a meter in diameter. Immediately from the horror these people had experienced, a lump formed in their throats. Stay! Victory and truth on our side, ”the doctor at one of the Minsk hospitals wrote on Twitter. And he asks: “Someone show those protesting people and explain that the country that Alexander Grogorevich ruled no longer exists.”

Workers in Belarusian companies large and small are demanding that Lukashenko resign and, if his views are not heard, they are preparing for a national strike. It is the protest of large corporations and state organizations that can force the authorities to finally look the truth in the eye. Even today, ordinary workers demand transparent elections. Representatives of various social strata of Belarusian society mention the same points in their statements: the release of political prisoners, an end to the repression and the punishment of those who gave criminal orders and those who executed them. And most importantly, hold democratic elections that are fair, transparent and open to all.

When the Belarusian Central Election Commission announced the final results of the presidential elections on Friday, a majority in Belarus realized that it was the latest fatal mistake made by Lukashenko. That same night, he repeated his version of events on state television, as if nothing had happened: “We see people in action. Organizers: people from abroad. In the front rows, people with a criminal past … Today, people from Poland, Holland, Ukraine and even that Navaln “Open Russia” and others have already started driving here. The aggression has already begun against the country. “

Lukashenko advised Belarusians not to “cry”: “We have to stop, hold hands and calm down.” And let’s tidy up, let’s take care of those newcomers. “It is unlikely that it will be possible to introduce such order, at least as before. The international community is already responding to the protests in Belarus. And that is a separate topic of conversation.

“The most important factor in putting pressure on the government may be those forms of protest that simply cannot be ignored for long. In the first place, it is a strike by state companies, a management by officials and journalists from state media,” says the political scientist Artiomas Šraibmanas.

In this case, the political scientist, among those who are still in the system, will feel the pressure of the supreme government and the demand to initiate a dialogue, to seek solutions to the crisis. Only the summit itself, even with that dialogue, will shape that dialogue as harm mitigation, not as a new election.

Next, according to Shribman, Belarus will find itself at a crossroads with three roads. The first is a military or emergency situation. The second is a round table, as in Poland in the late 1980s, and new elections. Third, the protests will simply breathe.

The first option, as A. Šraibman explains, seems quite tempting and understandable for the current government, but it also poses a number of threats. Certainly not all screws in a collapsing system can be helpful, a lot of blood can be shed. As the degree of cruelty increases, even more elements can be detached from the system. And it won’t get people to go back to factories.

The main condition for the implementation of the second option, A. Schraubman guesses, is the position of A. Lukashenko himself, who is humiliated by the mere idea that he will have to sit at a common table with “rams controlled by foreign puppeteers.” . Even more fearful of officials is offering that option.

The third option, according to a political scientist, has not yet been seen. The protest changes shape, and the first victories can calm something, and vice versa: it will only increase the enthusiasm for not stopping. In addition, the ongoing protests will be encouraged by countless stories, photos and videos that illustrate the sadism of government officials. The version of the Russian interference, which was rumored on the eve of the elections (including material sent to special services and journalists about the supposedly signed Kremlin plans to invade), is not yet convincing. And because Moscow would have to shed a lot of blood in Belarus to defend the current government. And then continue to maintain a huge occupation army (and it is not even clear how long). And all this under conditions in which even 90% of the population is against, and Western sanctions, unprecedented. And this is what the Belarusian reconciliation services Russia can offer, as it was in 1996.

Only at this time is it unlikely that Moscow will trust anyone, both Lukashenko himself and those who consider him a usurper of power.

The protests in Belarus did not stop on the night of August 14. Like all night after the elections, car signs and spontaneous solidarity chains are forming on the streets of Minsk.