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Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas from the Faculty of Public Health of the Lithuanian Health Sciences University (LSMU) shared his thoughts on Facebook about how many Lithuanians would die if the coronavirus spread uncontrollably.
“Would 90 thousand really die? Lithuanian population if we do not block the spread of the new coronavirus? Yesterday, colleagues from Vilnius University thought in the press:” If we did not block the virus, we would clearly see that around 3 percent of all the society would die. That would be 90 thousand. In Lithuania. ” I would still like to object and present my arguments, “wrote M. Stankūnas.
We are well aware that the actual number of patients is more than officially diagnosed.
The professor shared calculations that could be used to predict when the spread of COVID-19 should stop. “First of all, it must be said that in Lithuania it is practically impossible for there to be 2.792 million. the population of our country would be infected with this infection. If ‘herd immunity’ really works (I have no doubt), it means that the virus will spread as long as it infects a certain part of the population. This is quite easy to calculate using the formula 1 – (1 / R0). If we assume that R0 = 2.5, after the calculations we get 0.6. Or it means that 60 percent is enough to make you sick. populations to develop “herd immunity” and prevent further spread of the virus. In this case, it is likely that in Lithuania, 60 percent. o 1,675,200 people will continue to spread the virus, “said the professor.
According to M. Stankūnas, it is obvious that there are more infected people than officially diagnosed. “The next question is, how many of them can die? Frequently reported death rates (like Worldmeters) are calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the officially diagnosed cases. However, we are well aware that the actual number of patients is more than officially diagnosed. Therefore, the true death rate from COVID-19 is significantly lower. For example, in Geneva, Switzerland, the mortality rate was calculated based on seroepidemiological studies. The mortality rate for all age groups was found to be 0.64%. So let’s say a similar indicator is in Lithuania and take a simple action on 1,675,200 inhabitants. * 0.64 percent The answer is 10,721 inhabitants ”, commented M. Stankūnas about the results of the calculation.
If in Lithuania we do not really control the virus and create the perfect conditions for its spread, 10,721 people could die from this disease.
Photo from Shutterstock
The professor also provided specific figures on how many Lithuanians would die if the virus spread without restrictions. “So if we don’t really control the virus in Lithuania and create the perfect conditions for its spread, 10,721 people could die from this disease. However, this perfectly spread condition is really difficult and this number of victims is hard to come by. ”Said the professor.
We remind you that 26 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed last day, the total number is 2309, the Ministry of Health announced this Wednesday.
Currently, 532 people are still infected with coronavirus and 1,683 have recovered.
81 people died from COVID-19 and 13 people died from other causes. As of June 1, 137 import cases had been registered in Lithuania.
There are currently 3,016 people in isolation. During the last day 3,898 samples were analyzed in laboratories, so far a total of 561 thousand samples have been analyzed. 555 samples.
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