Decisive minutes are coming in Belarus: expect more blood, and maybe even a military coup

The protests in Belarus since Sunday over non-transparent presidential elections, despite the particularly brutal actions of the Luakashenko regime and the power structures loyal to it, have yet to abate.

Not only at night, but also during the days after the attack by OMON, the militia and other internal security units in the streets, courtyards and stairways of the country’s cities, Belarusians continue to protest, if not tens of thousands, even if not thousands, at least in smaller groups.

And the blood continues to spill: hundreds of people broken by sticks, Belarusians wounded by rubber bullets and grenades leave, and others take their place. However, the larger picture increasingly shows not only this tragic and traditionally romanticized image during similar events, but also the role of other states. Lukashenko, who has repeatedly spoken out about various conspiracies by “foreign agents,” is gradually beginning to feel real, rather than imaginary, pressure from both East and West.

At first glance, the three-point requirements plan for Belarus presented by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, which may receive a rejection or even a ridiculous reaction from Minsk, is a logical first step in forcing Lukashenko to make rational decisions, according to the former Lithuanian ambassador to Belarus, Petras Vaitiekūnas. But things can go a long way.

What has changed since 2006?

Lukashenko’s fear of condemnation, sanctions and, furthermore, obedience to the demands of other countries by the West, was demonstrated by the long-time leader’s actions: and in 2006 and 2010 his regime falsified the election results, forcibly dispelling the protests despite all the negative reactions. He continues to despise any criticism, but it is he who remains in power.

However, the silent protests on the streets of Belarusian cities and the inevitable comparisons to the Maidan events in Ukraine in 2014 have raised many questions: perhaps this time? Perhaps this is the last of the Lukashenko regime? Delfi addressed the former diplomat P. Vaitiekūnas, who witnessed the events of the so-called “Cowboy Revolution” in Minsk with his own eyes. During the conversation with Delfi, the former Lithuanian ambassador to Belarus admitted that he had just caught up on the current events of 14 years with the former head of the SSD, Metis Laurinkis. There was no shortage of skeptical evaluations about the real change in Belarus, according to both interlocutors, even then.

“There was an episode like this: a great demonstration followed by a great march. Protesters: about 10,000. And all of them were walking along wide sidewalks, not wanting to disturb the militia. We went with the French ambassador looking across the street.

Talk to me too, seeing a column stopped in front of a red traffic light, the Frenchman says: Peter, there will be nothing here, look, the revolution has stopped with a red signal! What kind of revolution could there be here? And there really was nothing. Belarusians obey the rules, but now they will not be stopped by the red light and they are not very afraid of OMON, “the difference between the protests of 2006 and those of today. However, P. Vaitiekūnas, who was already an ambassador of Lithuania in Ukraine in 2014, when events began in Maidan, he assures that the case of Belarus is somewhat different: neither Lukashenko nor the Kremlin, which supports him as a whole, want to allow Maidan in Minsk, but also press.

On the other hand, this time in Belarus everything is different than in 2006, not only because of the bolder behavior of Belarusians, but also because of the new generation, then kindergarten children could not understand what was happening in the country and because. They are now young and much older adults, having seen Lukashenko only in 26 years, but not only him.

“Not only has a new generation grown up, but new technologies have emerged and people can compare everything with the information they feed on their television, in their newspapers. Finally, those people saw Europe, Lithuania, Vilnius, comparing it with how they live. and how free people live. And then they said that this is not our life, we do not want to live that way, it is wrong, it does not lead anywhere, “said P. Vaitiekūnas.

Not everyone listens alike

Another significant difference from past events is that this time the protests are not taking place exclusively in Minsk or even in its center, where the security forces are trying not to let the protesters in, but on the outskirts and most of all important, in other cities. At first glance, there isn’t much of a difference, as the protesting OMON and other units are brutally beaten everywhere equally.

“Lukashenko has managed to consolidate the power structures that are loyal to him, there has been no disintegration, he has done so with salaries, professional opportunities, benefits and impunity. But society fell apart. Two people leave the staircase: one goes to OMON and the other to the protesters. And the one who goes to one side is going to hit the one who went to the other side ”, compared the former diplomat.

However, according to the interlocutor, the news that comes from the regional centers is different from that of the large centers: the regional centers are controlled by OMON, in cities like Pinsk or Baranovichi the situation is slightly different: in a militia he threw shields, in another OMON received more resistance from protesters. and they had to retreat, and in some other places retired officials remind protesters that they were not beaten. In addition, videos have already appeared in which former soldiers, protesters, demonstratively burn their uniforms in solidarity with the beaten people.

P. Vaitiekūnas did not dare to speculate on the truth of the protests of officials and former soldiers and the determination of the regime structures to support the Lukashenko regime. However, he pointed out two things: first, it must be borne in mind that the force structures have been strengthening for several decades, and the role of the Kremlin is particularly important in them.

Is the Kremlin a link to the coup?

Russia has never been mentioned as one of the players in the fields of Lukashenko and his opponents. For example, Siarhei Cichanouski, the husband of Sviatlan Cichanouskaya himself, was just an ordinary businessman until last year, living permanently in Moscow, showing no political ambitions except for interesting curves on “Crimea owned by Russia” and the glorification of ” Russian world. ” And then suddenly he became a blogger, a critic of Lukashenko and a victim of the regime – he ended up in jail.

Lukashenko’s other rival, his former ally, the diplomat and businessman Valery Cepkalo, fled to Russia, from where he asked Vladimir Putin for help. According to P. Vaitiekūnas, the Belarusian opposition or dissidents cannot avoid Moscow’s influence, and Lithuania must accept this: that the Kremlin is involved and intends to continue participating in Belarusian politics, no matter who leads it.

“The Kremlin has the opportunity and is involved, because why not participate? In 26 years, Lukashenko has been selling Belarusian sovereignty for a piece of money, for oil and gas and commercial terms, “said Vaitiekūnas, citing power structures, first of all the KGB, which in 2006 acted arrogantly as if it could do anything, stop and smash diplomatic cars.

“They spun the wheels of my car. Yes, these are Soviet methods, when they can do everything, they must be treated with care. But then the KGB’s influence in Moscow and Belarus was split in half. And who is the owner of the KGB now, I don’t know. Lukashenko has his own personal guard of several thousand faithful and, as with the KGB, it is unclear. Belarusian Army 99 percent. obedient to the Kremlin and, if the situation arises, it will listen to orders from the Kremlin, not from Minsk, ”said P. Vaitiekūnas.

What could be the “situation” in which the Belarusian army and the Kremlin-controlled part of the KGB would listen to instructions from Moscow instead of the country’s leader? If these two structures were to address such a “situation”, it would mean a military coup similar to the one that took place, for example, in Egypt in 2013, when, together with other senior military commanders, General Abdel Fattah el-Sissi overthrew President-elect Mohamed Morsi. and he himself became president. But in Belarus, that would mean something else.

“If both structures (the army and the KGB) are involved in the (coup), it means who really organizes everything in the Kremlin,” Vaitiekūnas noted. He did not hide the fact that Moscow had probably set the stage for the occupation of Anschlus, Belarus. And whether that will happen, it all depends on the status of Lukashenko, who is increasingly pressured by Moscow to sign a closer integration treaty.

After the rivers of blood: the fate of other dictators

“The first question is whether she is sane, and I hope so. If so, then rational solutions are possible. But much will also depend on what Moscow decides: either Anschlus or she is trying to maneuver, she is involved in the political process. I think that Putin is cautious and never shrugs, perhaps he will not force the occupation of Belarus.

If not, it will end in a great bloodshed. If he is mad, he will end up like Ceausescu, he will hang him on the door with his head down (in fact, this is the execution of another dictator, the Italian fascist leader Benito Mussolini, who just shot Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu, “he said. Vaitiekūnas.

Even more bloodshed in the streets, not a few victims, but tens, hundreds or more would mean one thing or another, probably sooner or later, the end of his regime.

“Russia would certainly help him, but he also plays other games, he never puts the whole game in one card, Lukashenko is just one card, and the Kremlin is looking for another person who can be credible and represent Russia’s interests in Belarus.” pointed out P. Vaitiekūnas.

Lithuania must participate, and not only

That is why Mr Lukashenko now has several options, one of which Lithuania is already proposing: to sit at a round table and try to negotiate with the opposition, with which compromises and their own agreed inviolability can still be reached, arguing that did not sell Belarus, even if it was a lie.

“This would start the first political process at least something normal, since there has simply been no such thing in the last 26 years,” said the interlocutor, giving some examples. In Russia, for example, Boris Yeltsin, a prominent figure in opposition to the Soviet regime, became a symbol of momentum. And in Lithuania, in the 1990s, the Sąjūdis went to the elections, retaining both wings, both the communist wing of Brazauskas and Terleckinis, and they did not get angry with either of them, there was no such antagonism as in the case of Belarus, where there is no opposition, no dissident, none of the governments has gone over to the opposition, in the middle only the Kremlin.

According to P. Vaitiekūnas, Lithuania should also actively participate in that political process, because strengthening the influence of the Kremlin, whether through Lukashenko or the power structures in Belarus, is especially dangerous, which is why Russia is still consolidating plus his imperial ambitions, which could be crowned. Recovery of Ukraine.

“Do you remember how Putin explained to the boy where the borders of Russia end?” “Where we want, ends there” – only the independence and success of Ukraine will get them out of their mindset, but a successful coup in Belarus would increase the pressure on Ukraine, the war in Donbass, who knows, maybe even against us, warned P Vaitiekūnas. Therefore, Lithuania, together with others, should already clearly repeat the requirements.

“The first requirement is free parliamentary elections in the spring. The role of international players is very important here, but you must have your own philosophy, your imagination. We have to participate, which is also in our interest, because Belarusians are Europeans, We don’t have to give them to the barbarians, we also want the Russian barbarians to be part of Europe, Belarus is one of the keys to unlocking the Russian problem ”, ambitious visions not hidden by the former Lithuanian diplomat.

However, he admitted that Lithuania’s weight is too low for us to do something alone, it is too dangerous. On the other hand, Lithuania has an opportunity that must be seized: Lukashenko’s main rival in the elections, called by some politicians the president-elect of Belarus, S. Cichanouskaya, who is in Vilnius.

“What would you suggest to Nausėda: create an alternative government, but after consulting Brussels, Washington and Warsaw, because if we have a card like this, let’s think about how to use it, we need ideas in which direction we are going!” The diplomat said excitedly. The Lithuanian Seimas Foreign Affairs Committee held a closed-door meeting, which was also attended by the President of the Seimas Viktoras Pranckietis, representatives of the President of the Republic of Lithuania, the Prime Minister, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Linas Linkevičius and adopted by unanimously a statement in which it did not recognize the 2020 agenda. August 9 The results of the elections in Belarus, and Mr. Lukashenko is not recognized as the legitimate leader of Belarus.

This opened a kind of Pandora’s box: if Lithuania did not recognize Lukashenko as the head of state at the highest level, relations between Vilnius and Minsk would be enormously complicated. When asked what the Nausėda team would respond to the man at the alleged meeting, if he mentioned the risks associated with such diplomatic maneuvers, P. Vaitiekūnas pointed out the importance of the international role.

“That is why I say that a coalition is needed. Lithuania cannot do these things alone, it is too dangerous. We should also be concerned about the stability associated with Astrava – do we want to be very fair, but contaminated with radioactive dust and very dead?

It is clear that such statements must first come from Brussels, Warsaw, Washington, so that Lukashenko can see that there are serious forces behind, “said P. Vaitiekūnas.

According to him, the joint statements of the presidents of Lithuania and Poland are already the beginning: both the leaders or their delegates, together with the representatives of Brussels and Washington, should already plan a trip to Minsk directly to the opposition and to Lukashenko himself.

“We have to go and address it directly: do we want to strengthen the sanctions, create an alternative government or do we start with a political process? You have to talk, of course, without opening the negotiating letters beforehand, but you have to go to Minsk,” he said. the interlocutor.

And if Lukashenko is a long-time dictator, the former chairman of the collective farm is offended and declares in his own bitter tone that “the Lithuanians and Poles who have been here will not tell us,” then what?

“What about the American gentlemen? European gentlemen? Not specified, not specified. If not, then we are not – we are legitimizing the opposition, leaders will emerge and perhaps we can avoid embarrassment and bloodshed. But the proposal will also come from Belarus itself: we demand a debate on this situation between the opposition and the authorities, what is it like here? 2×2 = 4, say in both Moscow and Washington.

And if Lukashenko’s answer was “5”, he would be crazy. Perhaps in 26 years he has lost his sanity, but I am very hopeful that he is sane and follows rational arguments and makes rational and compromising decisions, ”said P. Vaitiekūnas.

He wishes the Belarusians only one thing: strive for a peaceful dialogue as much as possible, refrain from provocations and without seeing any reaction from A. Lukashenko, not forgetting the oath of Lithuanian supporter Albina Bunevičiūtė-Aušrelė.

“For them, Belarusians now have a moment of truth: are they worthy of freedom and, if so, are they fighting for it? Long ago, supporter Albina Bunevičiūtė said: who does not protect her is not worthy of freedom” pointed out P. Vaitiekūnas.