Zhirinovsky and an influential Russian MP are already cursing Lukashenko: what does that mean?

First, the Liberal Democrat leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky spoke about the fraudulent elections, the falsification of their results, and the brutal crackdown on protesters.

Predict that it will explode out of the country

Of course, since the bold protests against the removal of his party’s governor have not stopped in Khabarovsk for a long time, V. Zhirinovsky is somewhat encouraged.

But it is a public secret that there is a limit that he does not want and cannot cross: the Kremlin would immediately push him out of politics.

However, his words on Twitter sounded quite impressive and, of course, ironic, since Putin’s hand on Russia is made with an even stronger iron.

“Belarus is ready for the end of the Lukashenko regime. It betrayed its people and the whole country rebelled against it. Protests in Belarus: the beginning of the end of Lukashenko.

He understands this himself. No matter how long it lasts, a week, a month, a year, you will still have to flee the country. Everyone, absolutely everyone is against him, “wrote V. Žirinovskis.

There was also an earlier message from him, posted on Sunday, before the protests even started. V. Žirinovskis stated: “I sympathize with all those who are being repressed, first of all, with the brutally detained journalists from Dožd.

V. Zhirinovsky: no matter how long Lukashenko survives, a week, a month, a year, he will still have to flee the country. Everyone, absolutely everyone, is against it.

They must be executed. Voters have already refused to believe Lukashenko. Yanukovych’s fate awaits Alexander Grigoryevich. “

Of course, V. Žirinovskis has always been famous for his unpredictability, and the Kremlin tolerates such behavior, as mentioned, to some extent.

Called the fallen

But already on Tuesday, as the protests and their repression accelerated, one of the so-called fiercest hawks in the Russian State Duma, Konstantin Zatulin, the vice chairman of the committee in charge of relations between the Commonwealth of Independent States and the protection of Russians living abroad.

Gave an interview Gazeta.ru and stated that the presidential elections in Belarus had been held “in an atmosphere of total falsification, the results of which are questionable.”

“The situation is such that guessing how many votes Lukashenko got is actually guessing from the coffee bushes.

Obviously, he didn’t get that many votes. The scam is also that 40 percent. Belarusian voters voted in advance. The results are not reliable, “said K. Zatulin.

“Someone has already said that Lukashenko won the elections but lost the country. And this is due to his particularly selfish policy, the essence of which is to preserve the regime of personal power.

World public opinion is unlikely to agree with Lukashenko. He crossed all limits. We don’t want a Maidan in Belarus, but he’s crazy. The problem is that the Belarusian leader is down in terms of power, “added the Russian parliamentarian.

Smoke screen and self-propelled

Such comments by K. Zatulin, who even urged Moscow not to recognize the results of the elections in Belarus, seem to contradict the Kremlin’s position, visible to many analysts, that it is better to wait and then watch.

It is also interesting to look at the comments from the Russian media. Television, yes, strongly supports support for Lukashenko, but even Kremlin-run or pro-government newspapers have made various comments expressing sympathy for the protesters.

There are indications that at least Zatulin’s comments mean that a signal is being sent to Lukashenko that he should not expect active support from Moscow.

However, Marius Laurinavičius, chief analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis 15 minutes He argued that these statements should be viewed as a permitted amateur activity in Russia.

“But more importantly, it is deliberately formed by a smokescreen; for this purpose, by the way, self-activity is allowed.

The goal is to confuse everyone, because in such cases, only what Putin, Nikolai Patrushev say is important, if sometimes it is necessary from a business point of view: Igor Sechin or Sergei Chemezov, “said M. Laurinavičius.

Don’t try too hard to help

And perhaps Russia, although Lukashenko appears to be a pro-Russian candidate, is already preparing for the future, for future relations with another president. After all, the protests may not be suppressed, but rather accelerate even more.

Especially since Tadeusz Giczan, an expert from the School of Slavic and Eastern European Studies at University College London, points out that Lukashenko hasn’t been very comfortable with Russia for decades.

In 2001, Russia waited a long time for one of the main opposition candidates, and Lukashenko was saved only by the opposition itself.

The conflicts began in the late 1990s, when then-Russian leader Boris Yeltsin banned Lukashenko from visiting Russian regions.

Such visits by the latter have become akin to the campaign with the ambition to become president of Russia, not Belarus. Especially since Lukashenko is still quite popular with Russians.

“Lukashenko was certainly not always number one for the Kremlin. In fact, the question of what Russia will support has been raised at least three times: in 1996, when the Belarusian parliament launched the impeachment process against Lukashenko, in 2001 and 2010.” writes T. Giczan.

In 2001, Russia waited a long time for one of the main opposition candidates, and Lukashenko was saved only by the opposition itself.

And in 2010, the Kremlin, according to T. Giczan, openly defended A. Lukashenko across the street, eliminated almost all subsidies, and thus forced him to capitulate only a week before the elections.

Mr. Lukashenko was to join the Customs Union, which later became the Eurasian Economic Union, and eventually agreed to sell the Belarusian gas operator Beltransgaz to Russia’s Gazprom.

“And now, let’s say, Mikhail Babich, who was appointed Russia’s ambassador to Minsk in 2018, is probably Lukashenko’s biggest enemy. He attacked Lukashenko, met with the opposition, and started acting like he was the head of the country.

In Russia, Lukashenko’s allies are fewer and fewer. His old friends, Boris Berezovsky and Yuri Luzhkov, have already died, and last year Russian security services destroyed the business conglomerate of Yuri and Alexei Chotin, linked to Lukashenko.

All this does not mean that the Kremlin will now support the opposition of Sviatlan Cichanouskaya. No. But Moscow will not make much of an effort to help Lukashenko and will remain on the sidelines. Russia knows Lukashenko and knows that under his rule Belarus will never turn to the West.

But Cichanouskaya, Viktor Babaryka or Valer Capkala are not classic pro-Western nationalists either. They do not demand membership in NATO, they do not oppose close ties with Russia ”, considers T. Giczan.