Expert: Lukashenko sends a clear signal to the West

Belarusian news agency BELTA reported that the detained men, and probably dozens of others still at large, had been sent to Belarus “to destabilize the country before the elections.”

Most analysts, however, see the situation as an even more complicated scenario before our eyes, in which President Alexander Lukashenko has found a convenient way to discredit and control the growing and growing opposition movement and take electoral control. even stricter, reports rferl.org. Of course, Mr. Lukashenko is seeking reelection for a sixth term at any cost.

At a hasty meeting of the Belarusian Security Council on July 30, it was decided to take stricter security measures at public events. Valerijus Karbalievičius, a Belarusian political analyst, believes that this step is primarily aimed at the large opposition rally scheduled for Minsk on July 31.

As mushrooms sprout after the rain, more and more security posts are being inspected, one by one, by fierce militiamen, an expert said in an interview with Current Time.

“And all of this is being done solely to drastically limit the number of people who gather for the demonstrations and to quell as much of the accelerating wave of protests as possible. I can assure you that the government has a very sincere fear on its scale. This is it. the electoral campaign tactic, which officials used to quell the enthusiasm of the protests, “says V. Karbalievičius.

Belarusian economics and politics expert Siarhei Chaly added that Lukashenko could try to link the opposition to an alleged Russian conspiracy to justify a crackdown on the protests.

Furthermore, it is a very clear signal to the West that if something serious happens in Belarus, at least something reminiscent of Bloody Sunday (the extremely brutal actions of officials against protesters after the 2010 presidential elections), they should take into account that Lukashenko is not only fighting opposition, but also with a conspiracy organized by Russia “, explained the expert in an interview with” Current Time “.

Only such a situation raises the question of what the Russian citizens detained in Belarus actually did.

According to Belarusian media, the men, aged between 22 and 55, work for the private security service Vagner. This seems to be confirmed by their passports and other identity documents displayed on Belarusian television, says Ruslan Leviev, one of the founders of the “Conflict Intelligence Team” project, who is intensely interested in the activities of Russian mercenaries in foreign countries.

“It just came to our knowledge then. Their names can be found online as those fighting on behalf of the Vagner organization. Some of them fought in the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine before becoming carters. After becoming mercenaries, they went to Syria, some to Libya. Now, as we understand, he is carrying out a new mission, “says R. Levijev.

The so-called wagoners are one of the best-known Russian private paramilitary companies in the world, active for a good decade.

It is a public secret that the so-called “wagoners” are led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who once worked as a personal chef for Putin.

J. Prigožinas has repeatedly denied any of his connections to this company in the past, but several studies have shown otherwise. There is also evidence that it was J. Prigožinas who established and financed the Internet Research Agency, better known as the troll factory. US officials accuse her of spreading propaganda and campaigning for influence (specifically during the 2016 US presidential election).

According to analysts, there is no doubt about the mission of the Russian vagrants in Belarus. First of all, all the detainees were staying near Minsk, dressed in special clothes. The other important thing is that they are not special forces or undercover agents.

“They are combatants, true participants in combat operations. These are people trained and equipped for military operations. They are certainly not spoilers or perpetrators of terrorist attacks. Their objective and mission are completely different, ”says S. Čaly.

According to Leviyev, the most likely explanation for the finding of waggers in Belarus is that the company is using Minsk as a transit stop, as Russia’s commercial air transport has been drastically reduced due to the global coronavirus pandemic.

“Russia will not be able to go to Turkey, but it will be possible to reach this country from Minsk. You can now fly from Istanbul to Syria, Libya, Sudan or anywhere else,” the expert explains.

Belarusian media says the militants had proper identity documents for traveling abroad, which the Russians, whose final destination is Belarus, don’t really need. He also had Sudanese currency and Sudanese SIM cards with him.

Sudan alone was not the group’s last stop.

A study conducted by Current Time in February 2019 revealed that the company M-Invest, controlled by J. Prigožinas, has signed cooperation agreements with the Russian Defense Ministry on military transport services in Africa and the Middle East. In 2019, the Russian service RFE / RL announced enigmatic flights of Russian military aircraft between Khartoum, Sudan and Libya.

Despite Lukashenko’s public demands for Russia to explain the presence of military mercenaries in Belarus, analysts say the Minsk official likely did not really know what the Varnners were doing in the country.

“If Belarus is really used as a transit corridor, then I am sure this is not the first time such a situation has arisen,” Karbalievich said, adding that it was still possible that Minsk did not know all the details of the presence of these mercenaries in the country.

“Moscow may have decided that, if there is such an agreement, it may not be necessary to inform each incoming group, to provide their names.” That may also be the case, ”he says.

V. Karbalievičius categorically rejects the speculation that A. Lukashenko may use this incident as a pretext to declare a state of emergency or postpone the elections scheduled for August 9.

“It is not necessary to continue this difficult politicized process, postponing the elections for half a year or a year. That would mean that for a year or a half the country would live in enormous useless tension, so I really don’t think that Lukashenko is trying to do that.” thinks the expert.

“It just came to our notice then. I would like to see August 9 and 10 pass as soon as possible to gather your 80 percent quickly and painlessly. Votes and it would all be over. And they will deal with all the protesters with the help of their security structures, “says V. Karbalievičius.

According to The Daily Beast, by arresting Vagner’s fighters, the President of Belarus will undoubtedly win a series of enemies in Russia.

The very fact of the arrest and the publicity of the pictures taken by the Belarusian national broadcaster are, so to speak, puzzling, as Belarus and Russia have been calling each other the closest allies for decades in the form of a state of union. .

Some of the detainees were filmed wearing only their underwear and with their arms broken behind their backs. The body is decorated with tattoos. An edge of the uniform reads “Our business is death, and we are doing very well.” Belarusian state media wrote that more than 200 of those militants may have been involved in plans to undermine Belarus’ presidential elections this week.

After the names of the 33 detained soldiers were released by the Belarusian media, 17 of them coincided with the list of “war criminals” drawn up by the Ukrainian authorities in the ranks of the Russian-backed separatists. The Belarusian weekly Nasha Niva announces that one of the mercenaries, Andrei Bakunovich, is leading a Vagner sniper team.

The Belarusian television channel Belarus-1 cites a source from the country’s intelligence agency, still known as the KGB, as claiming that several of the detainees were citizens of the Russian Federation and tried to evade punishment by providing documents showing that they served in various Russian military structures.

Zachar Prilepin, a prominent Russian nationalist and writer who fought in Ukraine, also confirmed that he recognized several detained soldiers. “Hundreds of those people work in the private army, participate in various conflicts,” he told the nationalist Russia Spring portal. According to him, the soldiers used Belarus as a transit country for foreign missions. “It is very strange and even uncomfortable to see how this story causes so much political hysteria in a union state,” he said.

Later that Wednesday, the Russian Federal Security Service (a descendant of the KGB) took and accused Prilepin of not biting his tongue between his teeth. “I am very surprised that the idiots are opening up to confirm that the men arrested are private army soldiers,” Major General Alexander Mikhailov of the Federal Security Service told reporters with discontent.

The private forces, better known as Vagner, are linked, as already mentioned, to Mr. Prigožin, who even runs several catering companies. “As soon as Putin needs to solve a problem abroad, his personal boss and close ally Prigožin sends his troops there. Prigožino’s corporations are feeding the Kremlin and waging their wars,” said policy expert Sergei Parchomenka.

Long-time observers of the situation in Belarus, very familiar with Lukashenko’s three-decade rule, believe that the arrest is a very well-led move by the Belarusian president himself, who seeks to win the votes of anti-Russian citizens before the August 9 elections. For nearly 30 years, Lukashenko has been happy with up to 80 percent. Support from the country’s population, but its popularity has recently waned, as has loyalty to the Kremlin, which Moscow particularly dislikes.

The president of Belarus, also known as the last European dictator, who does not shy away from mocking and denigrating women as the weaker sex (and, more recently, also claims to have contracted the new coronavir), will have to prove his superiority in the elections in front of three pro-western liberal candidates.

For more than a week, thousands of Belarusians longing for change have been protesting in the country, demanding the help of a point in the history of Lukashenko’s arbitrariness. If we believe some public opinion polls, the rating of the outgoing president of Belarus is only 24%.

Lukashenko may be losing favor with the Kremlin, but Putin has no doubt that he is Russia’s most pro-Russian candidate and would not like a pro-Western liberal president.

Andrei Sannikov, a longtime opponent of Lukashenko and a former candidate in the presidential elections, is convinced that both Lukashenko and Putin were aware of plans to detain Vagner’s mercenaries in the country.

„V. Putin’s permission to kill Lukashenko, as long as it helps him stay in power, also helps him with the Vagner scandal, gives the impression that the threat is too great to continue the election campaign. Putin is making a mistake and Lukashenko is a real madman, “Sannikov told The Daily Mail.

During a meeting with the head of the Belarusian KGB, Lukashenko commented on the arrest of the Russian soldiers as follows: “I look at the reaction of the Russians. They are already dodging, claiming to have brought them here themselves. Of course, they go out of their way to justify their vicious intentions. “

Whatever the plan, whether to bring those troops to Belarus or not, Mr. Lukashenko is certainly trying to reap the benefits of possible Russian interference in the internal affairs of the country. It could postpone or even cancel the elections. “Both you and I should be concerned first about attempts to destabilize the situation in our country. The elections are secondary,” Lukashenko said of the arrest.