A global flood awaits the earth: scientists can already say what it will be like

According to sciencealert.com, if we don’t build coastal protection structures and take steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions, by 2100 floods could increase by almost 50%.

“We are trying to understand the extent of the global impact on future coastal flooding. We need to understand that these natural changes will occur globally by 2100 and we need to plan our response,” says Ian Young, an engineer at the University of Melbourne.

In the world, up to 600 million people live on coasts less than 10 m above sea level. people, so even a gradual rise in the water level means leaving a large number of populations, households and infrastructure to the grace of water.

In the worst case scenario presented in the study, coastal flooding will affect 287 million people. people, which is 4%. all the populations of the planet.

For those who like to value everything in money, even more information is provided: in the worst case, there is a threat to assets with a total value of almost 14 trillion. Dollars or 12 trillion. The euro represents about a fifth of world GDP.

Interestingly, most of the damage will be caused by floods and storms, which are getting deeper on land, and this process is exacerbated by climate change. Only 32 percent. These losses are specifically projected by the gradual increase in water levels.

“Although mean sea level is rising relatively slowly, we have found that other threats, such as fluctuations from floods, storms and crashing waves, will be much more frequent and intense. It’s important to understand, ”says Ebru Kireczi, an infrastructure engineer at the University of Melbourne.

The model used by the study authors is far from perfect, and the authors themselves caution that the precision of this model is certainly not high when evaluated locally, but it is sufficiently reliable on a global scale.

The scientists’ calculations are based on data from coastal surveys from around the world. The performance of the model has been validated many times with flood assessment data under both normal and extreme conditions.

Predicting the future is extremely complex, and atmospheric and ocean systems, both globally and locally, are incredibly complex. However, we are facing a great crisis, so it is imperative to try to predict the future that awaits us. The study authors state that “under the assumptions necessary for such a global study to be possible,” they have developed a “first version” of the forecast for global sea level rise.

The study authors still have work to refine the forecast locally. However, it is already clear that some parts of the Earth are particularly vulnerable to future flooding. In the United States, for example, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland are most at risk. And in Europe, the biggest threats are to the UK, northern France and northern Germany. In Asia, China, Bangladesh, West Bengal, parts of India are threatened. In the southern hemisphere, the northern territories of Australia.

For the archipelagos of the Pacific, which rise very slightly above the water, global floods pose an existential threat, as floods can flood the drinking water resources of these islands.

Unfortunately, some of the future rise in water levels and climate change is already inevitable. And while we still have the opportunity and time to drastically reduce the consequences of rising water, the worst affected regions must be warned earlier to be better prepared for future challenges.

The study was published in the journal Scientific Reports and can be found HERE.