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Foreign policy experts say the success of cooperation between the Presidency and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will largely depend on whether President Gitanas Nausėda follows the tradition started by outgoing President Dalia Grybauskaitė and tries to delegate someone to whom trust personally. Political scientists are convinced that the change of the Minister will not change the essential guidelines of foreign policy. However, according to them, if, for example, the representative of the Social Democrats, who supports a more moderate policy towards Russia, is appointed head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the positions of the Presidency and the Ministry may differ slightly.
We probably have a new chancellor
Giedrius Česnakas, Associate Professor at the Lithuanian Military Academy (LKA), is convinced that this term of L. Linkevičius as Minister for Foreign Affairs is the last and will be replaced by a new Minister after the Seimas elections in the autumn.
“I dare say that we will inevitably have a new Foreign Minister, because according to polls it would be difficult to expect” social workers “to get a clear number of votes, although L. Linkevičius is the first number on the Seimas election list. with “social workers”, “.
The political scientist also notes that in the Lithuanian constituency of a single member of the world, where L. Linkevičius nominated his candidacy, it is difficult to predict the winner.
“We will have this position in the Lithuanian district of the world for the first time, and it is quite difficult to predict how many will be involved.” And the names of those competing in this position are quite significant, it would be difficult to predict. But I still suppose that for eight years the minister has been a little tired, and he and I would probably like to see some change and some dynamism. I think we will probably not see the esteemed Linas Linkevičius as minister, ”said G. Česnakas.
Tomas Janeliūnas, a political scientist from the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), joins the foreign policy expert, stressing that the “social workers” party, whose leader is L. Linkevičius, cannot be represented in parliament after the elections.
“I think it is very likely, because in the first place, of course, the coalition itself can change and the ‘social workers’, as such, can be greatly reduced after the elections or have no representation in parliament. This is the only which is why L. Linkevičius’ chances of staying in the position are quite small, “said T. Janeliūnas.
Influence of the President on the appointment of a new Minister
Political scientist G. Česnakas also emphasizes that it is very important if the appointment of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, President Gitan Nausėda, will succeed in maintaining the unwritten agreement formed by D. Grybauskaitė with the winning party, so that the head of state delegates to the people that you trust.
“The question is whether the winning side will follow the agreement formed by Dalia Grybauskaitė that the President will delegate the people he trusts to the positions of Minister of National Defense and Minister of Foreign Affairs.” The question is whether G. Nausėda will be able to keep such an agreement, because it is not written, only chivalrously. The right of initiative for the formulation of foreign policy will also depend a little on him, ”emphasized the political scientist.
For his part, T. Janeliūnas stated that he thought G. Nausėda would have a very important word in choosing the Minister for Foreign Affairs. This, according to the political scientist, should reduce the risks of conflict and friction between the Presidency and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“RE. Grybauskaitė herself, apparently, very specifically suggested or suggested who this minister could be. I believe that Mr. Nausėda will have a very strong voice in the election of the Minister for Foreign Affairs, and that in itself should reduce the risk of some kind of conflict. In this case, it must be a person who the President would trust very clearly and who would not cause any competitive tension between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Presidency, “said T. Janeliūnas.
“I think that such a tradition seems to reduce the risk of diverging positions beforehand, or that some ambition of the minister may cause problems in the coordination of common positions already at the state level,” he added, acknowledging that much will depend on the appointment of a minister of affairs. Exteriors. who will form the ruling coalition.
Foreign policy change
Speaking about L. Linkevičius’ uniqueness, G. Česnakas emphasizes his ability to diplomatically adapt to the essential foreign policy guidelines established by the President. The political scientist believes that the new foreign minister may have his own ambitions, which, he said, could generate some tensions between the MFA and the presidency.
„L. Linkevičius was more diplomatically adaptable, letting the president draw the essential guidelines, and then, in accordance with these guidelines, conveyed the position of Lithuania to national and foreign partners. I don’t know if someone else could adapt in this way, maybe there would be some personal ambition, which we saw during D. Grybauskaitė’s first term, when the Foreign Minister, Vygaudas Ušackas, wanted to show his personal ambition, initiative, there was a certain conflict and the minister had to resign, “he said.
However, the LKA political scientist says that despite the possible separation of positions between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the President, this would be more internal tension and a more general position would be transmitted abroad. G. Česnakas also states that he is convinced that, in any event, Lithuania’s position on important foreign policy issues will not change. The political scientist believes that the rigor of this position may change, depending on the delegate of which party will occupy the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs.
“If the Social Democratic candidate were appointed to the foreign ministers, we know his more moderate position towards Russia, then perhaps there would be some inaccuracies and incompatibilities in office. At least from the experience of other countries we can see that this is not a good thing “said the political scientist.
T. Janeliūnas also supports G. Česnakas, declaring that the essential guidelines of foreign policy should not change even after the change of the Minister.
“In fact, foreign policy in Lithuania is a difficult area to change, and a person has very little to change the established directions. Moreover, since he would not be the man who could overshadow the Presidency. One way or another, it can only be a tactical change, it is an approach in one area or another, more or less, “said the political scientist.
“But here, of course, personality has some influence on how you shape relationships with colleagues from abroad, whom you personally pay the most attention and enthusiasm to, who you care about most personally, and what are the top priorities on your personal agenda. But in one way or another it is about more tactical redistributions, but not a change in the radical and priority directions of foreign policy, ”he added.
Both T. Janeliūnas and G. Česnakas agree that the Foreign Ministry is already ready for the changes, a new impetus that a new leader could provide.
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