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More than a dozen people have been killed in clashes on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border since July 12. Both sides blame each other for taking aggressive action.
But the tensions could not only hurt Baku or Yerevan. According to observers, there is a risk that already unstable relations between the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, respectively, will be subdued.
Nominally, countries are allies based on mistrust in the West. But they are found on different sides of the barricades in both Syria and Libya.
Passionate statements
And now Turkey is in a hurry to defend Muslim Azerbaijan, with which Ankara has linguistic and ethnic ties: Baku is already offered new weapons, and TR Erdogan promises to avoid an attack on the country from which cheap natural gas flows to Turkey. .
AFP / Scanpix photo / Armenia allegedly shooting down Azerbaijani drones
Moscow, meanwhile, deliberately announced a major military exercise in southwestern Russia last week, though it denies it is linked to sparks on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and says it wants to mediate a search for a ceasefire.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting for the Nagorno-Karabakh region since the collapse of the USSR, and in recent years they have been involved in a kind of arms race. Russia sells arms to both countries for billions of dollars.
The claim that Azerbaijan could hit rockets at an Armenian nuclear power plant raises fears that the dispute will spiral out of control.
The conflict, of course, burns mainly and only occasionally flares up. But no tension in international negotiations has eased tensions, and since 2008, individual clashes have already killed hundreds of people.
This time the flame is hotter. For example, a statement last week that Azerbaijan could hit rockets at an Armenian nuclear power plant raises fears that the dispute could be out of control.
Awakened and the United States. The state department last week reported “great concern” and called on the two conflicting states to speak up and reach an agreement.
Russia is sending a message?
Unlike the previous shootings, the last confrontation (used tanks, drones, artillery) takes place 300 km from Nagorno-Karabakh, along a border recognized by the international community.
At the same time, there are the Caspian Basin oil and gas pipelines and the railroads that transport resources to the world through Turkey.
Erdogan has not criticized Russia in recent years, but this time he implicitly alluded to the possible role of the Kremlin in inciting fighting, which he called “non-Armenian caliber”.
Photo by Scanpix / SIPA / Recep Tayyipsa Erdogan
“It just caught our eye then.” The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues within Russia, “said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Turkish policy department of the German Marshall Fund.
“Turkey sees the recent battles as a message from Russia, but realizes that fighting with Russia here, even through secondary countries, is extremely risky.” Although Turkey has always supported Azerbaijan, Ankara has never planned direct intervention, “added the expert.
Azerbaijan, which is richer and more powerful in military terms than Armenia, has not escalated the conflict in the past because it knows that the Armenians are supported by Russia, which has a military base in that country.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Armenian soldiers
However, Baku is now working to improve relations with Moscow: the Russians are expected to help find a solution for Nagorno-Karabakh, as the West did not like the role of mediator.
Turkey again agrees with the USA.
Some experts believe that the new tensions in the Caucasus are a testament to the changing situation in other conflict zones.
For example, R. Erdogan unexpectedly announced in June that a new clean list could be opened in Turkish-American relations, as the interests of both countries in Syria and Libya increasingly coincide.
Such a statement hardly pleased Russia, which supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In Libya, Russian mercenaries, along with the United Arab Emirates and France, support rebel leader Khalifa Haftar, but the latter’s wings have been clipped by Turkish military intervention.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Turkish warship
“The main dynamic of competitive cooperation between Turkey and Russia is that both countries feel ignored by the West. But if Turkey starts talking to the United States, that alliance is beginning to crumble. This time, Russia has prepared a response in the Caucasus, “says O. Unluhisarcikli.
R.Erdogan unexpectedly announced in June that a new clean list could be opened in Turkish-American relations, as the interests of both countries in Syria and Libya increasingly coincide.
Finally, Ankara’s rhetoric is also harsh because R.T Erdogan’s Turkish foreign policy must be determined: he wants to make the country a geopolitical power, at least in the region.
Admittedly, Richard Giragosyan, director of the Yerevan-based Center for Regional Studies, does not rule out the possibility that Turkey may be disappointed, that a young Armenian government who came to power after the 2018 protests may
“A Turkish military alliance with Azerbaijan will attack Moscow, which has drifted away a little, in full embrace at full speed. It would push Armenia into Russia.” “Moscow would also have the opportunity to send troops to the region, although Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey are opposed,” said Giragosyan.
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