As the Caucasus caldera explodes again, Russia and Turkey find themselves in a dangerous game

From July 12. during the most serious clash since 2016. At least a dozen people were killed between the two former Soviet republics. Both sides blame each other for the assault.

According to analysts, this serious escalation not only ended with obvious consequences, but also risks breaking the fragile and unstable partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

As politico.eu points out, many recent military conflicts, from Syria to Libya, have recently turned the two leaders against each other, testing their determination to maintain a complex and multifaceted partnership based on a mutually suspicious approach from the West and the economic ties.

Since the outbreak of violence in the Caucasus began in mid-July, Turkey has focused on defending its Muslim ally, Azerbaijan, with whom it has linguistic and ethnic ties, by offering to offer new weapons to Baku. Erdogan has promised to defend Azerbaijan, which supplies cheap natural gas to Turkey from “any attack”.

And here last week, Moscow ordered a large-scale military exercise in southwestern Russia. The country’s Defense Ministry denied that the exercise was carried out due to the growing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and called for a ceasefire and said it was ready to mediate between the two sides.

Neighbors in the Caucasus region fought wars with each other in the 1990s. Their reason is the Nagorno-Karabakh region, where the two countries disagree with control. There has been an arms race in recent years, with Russia selling billions of euros in arms on both sides.

This conflict, one of the longest lasting in the world, has led to many years of complex international mediation. Since 2008 hundreds of people have died in individual clashes and shootings.

Azerbaijan’s declaration last week that its missile system could strike a Soviet-era Armenian nuclear power plant raised fears and speculation that the conflict could be out of control. The United States last week expressed “deep concern” and called on both capitals, Baku and Yerevan, to discuss the problem and find a solution.

Unlike previous clashes, this latest conflict, which involved attacks on heavy drones, tanks and artillery, did not take place in Nagorno-Karabakh, but 300 km from there, on the Armenian-Azerbaijani legal border and near the pipeline and the gas and the Caspian railway, through Turkey. world markets

Erdogan rarely criticized Russia’s possible role in the conflict, calling the attack “beyond Armenia’s capabilities.”

“It is a Russian shipyard, and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues according to the parameters established by Russia,” said Ozgur Unluhisarciklis, head of the German branch of the German Marshall Foundation. According to him, Turkey sees this “recent confrontation as a message sent by Russia, but understands that the confrontation with Russia here is extremely dangerous, even in the guise of envoys.” Although Turkey has shown strong and constant support for Azerbaijan, it has never considered direct intervention. “

Azerbaijan, which is richer and ahead of Armenia in terms of military power, has refrained from escalating the conflict in recent years because it knows that Armenia is receiving tacit support from Russia, a landlocked country developing a military base. . Azerbaijan is now seeking to improve relations with Moscow, hoping that this will help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which the West has been unable to resolve.

There is a perception that the outbreak of violence in the Caucasus is the result of changing dependencies in other conflict zones.

Last month, Erdogan said Turkey could open a new page in relations with the United States, as its interests in Libya and Syria increasingly overlap. The news did not please Moscow, which supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and held talks with Turkey, the latest of which greatly contributed in March to quell the fight in the last opposition fortress.

In Libya, Russian mercenaries, along with the United Arab Emirates and France, are supporting rebel leader Khalifa Haftar, whose actions were thwarted by Turkey’s involvement in the civil war in January, changing the situation in favor of an internationally recognized government. in Tripoli.

“The essential dynamic of competitive cooperation between Turkey and Russia is that both countries feel that the West is avoiding them. And as Turkey cooperates with the United States, this alliance between Russia and Turkey begins to crumble. This time, Russia is expressing its response in the Caucasus, “explains O. Unluhisarciklis.

Turkey’s unusually harsh rhetoric in the Caucasus is also part of Erdogan’s growing foreign policy, as he seeks to make Turkey a geopolitical power in the region.

But Turkey’s efforts to get involved in the conflict may return to it in a boomerang, says Richard Giragosyan, director of the Yerevan-based think tank at the Center for Regional Studies. Support for Azerbaijan could topple the young Armenian government that came to power after the 2018 global uprising, and seeking to maintain a certain distance from Moscow, back to Russia’s deep embrace.

“The danger of Turkey’s military alliance with Azerbaijan could force Armenia and become too dependent on Russia again.” It could also give Russia the opportunity to deploy peacekeeping forces in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in which it is not yet directly involved in the military. And both Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey are against the participation of the Russian military forces, “said R. Giragosyan.