The United States Senate has risen for the weekend.
Bottom line: The terrible economic news, the potential for significant long-term damage, the very real deadline – nothing has sparked talks about the upcoming coronavirus relief package. Lawmakers and the Trump administration, people involved in the talks say, are no closer to a broad agreement than they were at the beginning of the week.
What to see: Top White House negotiators, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, and top Democratic negotiators, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and Democratic leader of the Senate Chuck Schumer expects to be on the phone on Friday and over the weekend, but at this point no in-person meetings are planned.
Through CNN’s Haley Byrd, who stayed up late on the hill Thursday night to receive this information:
Negotiations between Meadows, Mnuchin, Pelosi and Schumer concluded on Thursday night and the two sides were kept very far in an agreement.
Mnuchin told reporters after the meeting that negotiators “made progress” on certain issues, but still disagree with others. He said the administration will continue to dialogue with Democrats “for as long as it takes” to reach an agreement.
Meadows, meanwhile, said Democratic leaders did not receive his proposals “warmly.”
Pelosi and Schumer confirmed that description, telling reporters that the administration does not understand the scope of action needed in the next stimulus bill or the severity of the situation.
“Right now they don’t understand the severity of the problem,” said Schumer. “Did we have a good discussion? Yes. Will we continue to argue? Yes. Do we want to continue reaching an agreement? Absolutely. But it must resolve the seriousness of the problem.”
What was on the table
President Donald Trump said Mnuchin and Meadows would bring new options on unemployment benefits to the table on Thursday night, and according to a person briefed on the talks, they did so in the form of a long-term extension of unemployment benefits. improved at the $ 600 level. Democrats again rejected the idea of decoupling the extent of the benefit of the broader talks.
There was tangential progress in that new proposals were put on the table and there was more depth in the talks on how to structure a proposal, the person said. But the separation between the two sides is still huge.
“We are negotiating on two separate tracks,” the person said. “One side is looking at this from a completely different perspective than the other and until we reconcile that it is difficult to see how this comes together.”
Something to keep in mind, this has been pointed out to CNN by attendees from both sides of the talks: Democrats have no incentive to break the unemployment part because, in their opinion, there is no point in getting another bite out of the bigger apple. The Republican Party’s opposition to increased spending grows day by day, while the Democratic insistence that billions more are needed in the economy has been constant for months. Separating the key issue from the deadline would probably not guarantee a broader and more comprehensive agreement, attendees say.
On the other hand, Republican Party attendees point out that there is a government funding deadline at the end of September when Democrats can and almost certainly will ask for more funds to address the current crisis. Part of the reluctance to go big now on the Republican side (in addition to the very obvious discomfort with front-line spending) is knowing that they will do this again in two months.
About Enhanced Federal Unemployment Benefits
To make this perfectly clear, the benefits will end on Friday at midnight:
- It largely expired last week when the last checks were mailed. The people who needed and used that money are already feeling their maturity.
- No state unemployment benefits. This was a federal improvement of $ 600 per week in addition to state unemployment insurance.
- It will take weeks, if not more, to reconfigure when / if Congress agrees on an extension in any way. That is a big problem in itself. For starters, some states have taken months to get the extra benefits. All when people desperately need them.
The numbers
The United States economy contracted at a record annual rate of 32.9% last quarter and weekly unemployment claims rose to 1.43 million amid signs of a slowdown in the recovery. Those were Thursday’s headlines. Now move the GDP number aside: that the economy was 9% smaller in the second quarter is hindsight and expected.
Instead, focus on the unemployment numbers, combined with warnings this week by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible slowdown, and the need for a greater fiscal response from Congress.
Then look at what has already happened. Despite the most dramatic economic slowdown in recent United States history, real disposable income for people was * up to * 10%. That’s the direct result of March’s $ 2.2 billion emergency aid package.
So if the virus is re-emerging, the economy is slowing down, unemployment is accelerating, and those direct payments and unemployment benefits are no longer operational, what happens then? The lack of urgency, given that reality, is, to be forceful, dazzling.
Between those lines: CNN has made several legislators clarify that it is okay if the benefits expire because every time Congress reaches an agreement, they will become retroactive and everyone will recover.
This is a remarkably out-of-touch view of things: the idea that people can go a few weeks or more without the money that has kept them afloat for months.
What is McConnell doing?
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is notably absent from the current negotiations (although he’s still highly informed), but it’s worth paying attention to what he implemented on Thursday.
He introduced a bill and, with a simple majority vote, put it on the line for next week, something that creates a number of potential options, from serving as a vehicle for a short-term unemployment settlement, or even a comprehensive settlement. . , or just a place where there will be dueling message votes. But the point is this: There will be actions in the Senate next week. It may all be a side show, but often movement of any kind begins to unleash real discussions that lead to real movement about things.
As one senator told CNN, “If we could just stay on the floor and start talking to each other, we’d be in a much better place.” They will have a chance to do it next week.
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