Roberto Arias prepares a grave for burial in Woodlaven Cemetery after a coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) broke out in Everest, Massachusetts, USA on May 27, 2020.
Brian Schneider | Riets
According to a new forecast from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at Washington University, U.S. By the end of the year, more than 10,10,000 Kovid-1 deaths will peak, with the country falling in the fall and winter.
The Covid-19 has already reached the U.S. At least 186,800 people have been killed in, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by White House and state officials, predicts that the death toll will double on January 1 and could reach 620,000 if states say so. Aggressively simplifies coronavirus restrictions and people ignore public health guidelines.
In June, the IHME predicted that the U.S. The death toll in will reach 200,000 by October, which seems to be on track.
“The worst is yet to come. I don’t think it’s probably surprising, although I think there’s a natural tendency, as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, it looks like the epidemic is going away,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters at a conference call on Friday.
IHME published three hypotheses based on different assumptions: one worst case scenario, one best condition, and possible scenario. Most likely the scenario is that the Covid-19 will reach the U.S. by January. Will kill 410,450 people. 1. Worst case scenario, which believes sanctions and mask directives will be simplified, U.S. Up to 620,028 projects in the U.S. will die by then and the best position to assume ubiquitous masking, predicts that the U.S. In 2020, 288,380 people will die from Kovid-19.
Adherence to government policies and people will largely determine how many people on Covid-19 die this fall and winter, Murray said. He added on a call that he believes the virus has a seasonal element, like other coronaviruses, and that it will spread more easily in cold northern climates later in the year.
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia and the United States,” Murray said in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence is unreliable: mask-wearing, social distance and social gatherings are important to help prevent the spread of the virus.”
On a call, Murray added that the use of extensive masks is not enough to spread the virus in the fall and winter. He said that, from a policy perspective, the question is what kind of restrictions on social distance would be most effective, and there is not enough public data to answer that question, he said.
U.S. In Kovid-201 Daily, new cases have dropped as they registered more than 70,000 new cases every day at the end of July. However, more than 50,000 new cases are reported every day, with top health officials saying the fall is a cause for concern. Despite a drop in new cases, the daily death toll from Covid-19 in the U.S. remains high, with about 1,000 new deaths reported each day, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Murray said daily new cases in the global and U.S. continue to plateau in September or may decline, but are likely to increase in October.
The group estimates the global death toll, currently at 696969,600, will rise to about 2.8 million by January. The best situation – where there is widespread acceptance of masks and other safety precautions – is more than 2 million worldwide mortality forecasts. The worst case scenario predicts 4 million accumulated global deaths by the end of the year.
IHME’s latest forecast is based on cold weather forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere and people will spend more time indoors keeping the death toll high, where the coronavirus spreads more easily.
“People in the Northern Hemisphere should be especially vigilant as winter approaches, as coronaviruses, such as pneumonia, will be more prevalent in colder climates.”
IHME is one of several dozen modeling groups used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to predict the course of an epidemic. The CDC collects estimates from dozens of large model dealing groups and makes their own “forecasts to come together.”
The CDC’s latest forecast, released on Thursday, states that projects that “recorded 3,300 to 7,500 new deaths during the week ending September 26,” could see a decline in deaths nationally over the next four weeks. “It does not provide estimates from that week forward.
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