For much of the 2019-20 Serie A campaign, it looked like this would be the year Juve’s incredible title streak would end. Inter Milan looked ready for a winter run, but fell 2-0 to the champions in early March and were unable to regain ground. Lazio was within arm’s reach when the coronavirus stopped, but it stuck to his face after the restart. Atalanta led Juve twice in Turin on July 11, if they won they would have been within three points but gave up a couple of unstable handball penalties and settled for a draw.
After fending off a trio of threats, Juve clinched its ninth consecutive title with a 2-1 victory over Lazio on Monday. Maurizio Sarri’s team now leads by eight points with just four to play, and only one remaining opponent is currently higher than 11 in the table. The race is technically not over, but it is pretty clear how this story will end. FiveThirtyEight gives the old lady a 99% chance of closing the deal.
This was not a dominant challenge; They are third in the league on goal difference, and if they lose more than two points in their remaining games, they will not be able to reach 90 points in league play for the first time in five years. Still, the end result will end the same as normal.
Let’s see how they did it once again.
Again, it is a good time to be blue blood.
This will be the 36th title of Juve’s top division in Italy. Their dominance is not new, but until the 21st century, they had never won more than five titles in a decade or nine in two decades. Winning nine in a row is a new level.
As I wrote a few weeks ago when Bayern won an unprecedented eighth consecutive Bundesliga title, there’s no question that while the champions certainly have their acts together, this is the most blue blood friendly decade we’ve seen. Eleven clubs stand out from the group in terms of annual revenue, and as Bayern is the only one in Germany, Juve is the only one in Italy. (PSG is also the only one in France and has won seven of the eight Ligue 1 titles).
In terms of income, the five major leagues in Europe have dramatically separated from the rest of the continent in the last 10 years, and within those leagues, those who have have expanded their respective advantages over those who do not. It’s hard to say that this is a provably good thing for soccer in general, but in fact it is one thing and it helps significantly the cause of Juve.
– ESPN +: Streams the season finale of Serie A (US only)
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– ICYMI: the last of the main leagues in Europe
Fourteen players recorded at least 1,000 minutes for Juve in the league game this year, and the club spent more than € 25 million on transfer fees for 11 of them in the past six years. The three forwards, Cristiano Ronaldo and Gonzalo Higuaín, and the central Matthijs de Ligt, cost more than 75 million euros each. Of course, even wealthy clubs need creative accounting to make ends meet, but there’s no question that money equals margin of error. Juve proved this year that it has more of both than any other in Serie A.
However, this year could really have turned out differently.
Atalanta had an incomplete crash (and other challengers failed)
In terms of goal difference (+50 when no one else is above +38) and expected goal difference (+42.4, when no one else is above +28.9), Atalanta has been the best team in the league for a quite wide margin this season. Gian Piero Gasperini’s team has won games by scores of 7-0, 7-1, 7-2, 5-0 (twice) and 6-2. They may have the most dynamic and fascinating attack in Europe, but they have also been catching up from the start.
Atalanta played in the Champions League for the first time this season, they will play PSG in the quarterfinals on August 12, but while finding their UCL form, their league form fell. In six Serie A games from October 19 to November 23, they won one, lost two and drew three. On November 24, they were in sixth place, 13 points behind Juve. Since then, they only lost twice and racked up 49 points, most in the league. But even though they were almost able to stumble at Juve in early July, they couldn’t.
Two other clubs seemed more than capable of running.
From mid-October until the March strike, Lazio lost just four points and moved up to one of Juve in the table. To a large extent, they unloaded consecutive 3-1 victories over Juve in December. Simone Inzaghi’s high continuity and counterattack approach was simple but remarkably effective. The “era” is the key there. In eight games since the restart, they lost five and tied one. Any sense of momentum that existed for the blue sky expired with the stoppage. They’ll probably finish fourth.
Meanwhile, Inter Milan seemed to be a contender … against all but the contenders. Antonio Conte’s Nerazzurri They remain in second place at the moment, having accumulated 72 points in 34 games. But in five games against the other three contenders, the last winner of the Italian Champions League achieved just four points. They also took just two points off Roma from fifth place. They couldn’t beat that and a couple of tame results in early July (a 2-1 loss to Bologna and a 2-2 draw with Hellas Verona).
We were close to a legitimate four-team run, but Juve took points from almost every game that ended up being the most important and will end up winning quite comfortably.
Brilliant game closed
Most title races feature clutch play moments, the ability to score when you need it most, and the strength to get results when you’re in less than full shape.
Juventus has done more than that this year. They defeated Napoli in August, 4-3, thanks to an own goal by Kalidou Koulibaly. Later in the fall, Gonzalo Higuaín scored in the 80th minute of a 2-1 victory over Inter, Paulo Dybala scored in the 77th to beat AC Milan 1-0, and Juve scored three goals from the 74th minute in go ahead to beat Atalanta. A penalty from Ronaldo in the sixth minute of halting time beat Genoa, 2-1, in October, and Ronaldo put two penalties in the second half, both thanks to unintentional balls, to save a point against Atalanta the second time. The latter was the kind of result that makes you think that fate fixed the outcome of the title race well in advance.
– Marcotti: Juve still have problems that go beyond Sarri
In total, 21 of this year’s Juve Serie A matches have been decided by zero or one goal; They have lost only two of them. They have secured a total of 47 points from these matches, an average of 2.24 points. Inter is second best with 1.81 points per closed game, Lazio 1.77, Atalanta 1.68. That advantage constitutes almost all of Juve’s margin in the table. It has given them a path to a ninth consecutive title, but it doesn’t necessarily say great things about No. 10.
While the best teams are expected to perform better in close matches than everyone else, they are the best teams after all, sometimes you can do a little too well. Since 2010-11, only five teams can exceed Juve’s 2.2 point average in games of zero and one goal.
– In 2016-17, Monaco averaged 2.33 during an unexpected title race. They did not lose a single closed game. However, they averaged 1.86 points the following year, and their point total fell from 95 to 80.
– That same year, Chelsea averaged 2.29 points in these games and won the Premier League. The next season they averaged 1.67 points and fell from 93 points and first to 70 and fifth.
– In 2013-14, Diego Simeone’s Atlético de Madrid averaged 2.21 points in such games: 12 wins, six draws and a single loss. This allowed them to survive both Barcelona and Real Madrid in an epic race for the La Liga title and secure their first title since 1996. The following year, they averaged 1.5 points in these matches and barely got third place.
Relying so much on close wins is a good way to fly too close to the sun. Of course, close wins are a Juve thing.
The best closed game average in the last decade came from Juventus in 2013-14. They played in 18 games from scratch or one goal, won 15 and tied the other three. This near-impossible 2.67 point average propelled his career to a league record of 102 points and a 17-point break over excellent Rome. They comfortably won the league the following year thanks to Rome’s regression, but their close game average fell to 1.83, and their overall point total fell to 85.
The fifth team to reach 2.2 points per game from zero or a goal? Juve from last year. They averaged 2.29. Death, taxes, Juve scoring late goals to steal points.
The (increasingly) old woman
In April, I took a look at how some of Europe’s established elite teams were positioned for the future. The main takeaway for Juve: they are old. Very good, but old.
Those 14 players with 1,000 league minutes? Nine are at least 29 years old. Ronaldo is 35 years old, defender Leonardo Bonucci and midfielder Blaise Matuidi 33, Higuaín and defender Juan Cuadrado 32. This was one of the oldest major lists of the Big Five and, although Juve is usually a little mature, this is the Push.
There is a small but impressive young core of players like Dybala (26), de Ligt (20) and midfielders Rodrigo Bentancur (23) and Adrien Rabiot (25) in the rotation, and although there were not many local players in this year, Juve has star prospects such as winger Dejan Kulusevski, forwards Dany Mota and Felix Correia, defenders Merih Demiral, Luca Pellegrini and Cristian Romero, and goalkeeper Leonardo Loria who should be called at some point.
It will be fascinating to see how Sarri tries to integrate youth while keeping the title streak alive. It’s easier said than done, and could open the door to another exciting title race next year.
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