As California approached an ignominious milestone, preparing to move to New York as the state with the most coronavirus cases in the nation, one of the state’s leading coronavirus experts said it could be more than a month before. that cases start to decrease significantly.
During a press conference Tuesday, California Secretary of Health and Human Services Dr. Mark Ghaly said it could be four to five weeks after Governor Gavin Newsom tightened the rules last Monday before the cases , hospitalizations and deaths begin to decline steadily.
“We have learned that a period of two to three weeks may not be long enough,” he said. “It can take up to three, four, even five weeks to feel the full impact of some of those changes.”
The warning came one day when California topped 400,000 COVID-19 cases, closing in on New York, which has reported just over 408,000 cases, but has largely flattened its infection curve after suffering the worst of the pandemic to late March and April.
In the past few weeks, the pandemic has worsened in California. In the past 14 days, the number of deaths increased 20% from the previous two weeks, and the number of positive cases statewide increased 44%. The total number of people who were hospitalized with COVID-19 on Monday was 7,091, an increase of 25% from the previous two weeks.
Last Monday, in response to the increase, Newsom ordered the statewide closure of all previously reopened bars, indoor restaurants, movie theaters, and other businesses in California, and further tightened restrictions on 34 counties on the state’s watch list. state. In those counties, gyms, indoor hair salons, shopping malls, and houses of worship are also closed.
Almost 60 years ago, on December 31, 1962, former California Governor Pat Brown declared a state holiday when California passed New York as the most populous state in the United States, characterizing the event as a shift to western power and influence.
On Tuesday, however, the comparison between the Golden State and the Empire State Building was less cause for celebration.
“I think there was a misjudgment by the state in terms of opening things too quickly,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, professor emeritus of public health at the University of Berkeley. “It’s easy to say in hindsight, but I think Newsom raised the dial too fast, too fast. Many of us also expected Californians to behave more responsibly than they did. Those two factors have brought us to where we are today. We have to look at ourselves. “
Swartzberg noted that California was the first state to impose a shelter-in-place law, largely credited with slowing down the spread of the virus here in March and April. But the reopening of bars and other indoor facilities, which are now closed again, allowed the pandemic to recover.
In addition, in part because of mixed messages from the Trump administration about wearing masks, he noted, it is still difficult to convince many people across the state of the severity of the crisis, even when countries in Europe have seen major declines in deaths after good … coordinated national campaigns By contrast, in some California communities, including Orange County, protesters have expelled public health officials from their jobs with death threats.
“The fact that we let ourselves lose ground makes me sad,” he said.
Newsom’s new orders should help round the curve again, Swartzberg said, but in the end progress will be measured by public vigilance.
“My wife and I go out for a walk every day,” he said. “On a good day, we can see 40% of people wearing masks.”
Despite the number of cases, New York has experienced a more severe pandemic than California, at least so far.
Four times more people have died in New York from COVID-19 than in California: 32,218 compared to 7,755.
Additionally, New York State’s population of 19.5 million is half of California’s population. As a result, New York has a COVID-19 death rate of 166 people per 100,000, while California’s death rate is much less than 20 per 100,000.
But cases and deaths are increasing faster now in California than in New York. Over the past week, only Florida and Texas have seen more deaths and total cases than California, with New York 11th.
77% of California deaths occurred in five of the state’s 58 counties, all in Southern California: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange. In contrast, the combined death toll for the nine Bay Area counties, 697 people, is 9% of the state total.
Ghaly said it was not unexpected that California moved to New York in total cases.
“We are the largest state in the nation, we have a north-south geography that goes far beyond Vermont to Virginia,” he said.
“I see every day as an opportunity to do more and improve our response to COVID-19. In the end, I really hope and hope that California is the state that has adapted the most, learned the most, prepared the best, and that we are really going to reduce its impact. “
Due to good early preparation, California avoided the large spikes seen elsewhere and maintained hospital capacity and ICU levels, he noted.
However, if cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise, especially in counties that have become regulars on the watch list, the state will further tighten restrictions and delay reopening plans, he and Newsom said. .
“Unfortunately, our reopening has been treated as a green light by many to resume normal life,” said Ghaly, adding: “If the data trends shift to a place where we are not sure we will get there, there will be potential for further attenuation in parts of the state. “
.
