Blazers vs. Grizzlies Odds & Picks
| Blazers odds | -6 [BET NOW] |
| Grizzlies odds | +6 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -305 / + 245 [BET NOW] |
| Over / Under | 234 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 14:30 ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to $ 1000 sign up bonus today at DraftKings or see more offers and reviews for the best online sports books.
Welcome to the first play-in game in NBA history. Look, friends.
How it works: The Blazers managed to get the 8-seed in the eight-game regular season start, while the Grizzlies finished in ninth place. Because the Blazers are the eighth, if they win today, they are in the playoffs. If the Grizzlies win, these teams will play tomorrow; the winner of which will make the playoffs. Think of today as a Game 6 with Portland going up 3-2.
What happened to these teams? Where is the bet value? Let’s break it all down.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers finished the regular season opener with a 6-2 record, and they needed just about every point. It looked like every game was going to be a disappointment, however. Damian Lillard had to leave the fray.
In Orlando, they clearly have a style: Dominate over offense, while simply not being defensive enough to win. In those eight games, they posted a crazy-high 123.4 Offensive rating (the best in Orlando), but they posted 121.3 points per 100 possessions (second worst in Orlando).
That offensive success has really come from just hot shots: in Orlando, they hit 41.8% of their 3-pointers, including 51.0% from the corners. They also hit 42.5% of their mid-rangers. Lady has been a big part of that: This eight-game shooting streak is about as good as any you’ll find in NBA history.
The question, of course, is whether that is sustainable. The answer, to be honest, is simple: of course not. Mar when will they come down to earth? Will it be against the Grizzlies today or maybe one day hit the playoffs?
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies, on the other hand, went 2-6 in the Orlando start, barely hanging on to one of the top spots to make the play-in situation today.
They also lost some valuable players along the way. Stud young young man Years Jackson Jr. Tore his meniscus, let him sit for the rest of the season, and backup PG Tyus Jones has been out with a slippery knee. He is doubtful to adapt in today’s play-in game.
The metrics are a bit mixed up on those players. Per clean glass, the Grizzlies have actually been better off with Jackson Jr. of the court. They have been neutral with Jones on vs. off.
But that overestimates things: Jones is very underrated and offers unbelievable stability on the second unit. Jackson Jr. is already one of the best floor-sized words in the league, so his absence just really changes the way the offense looks. The Grizzlies also play much slower without him, which means they have received less efficient shots more often.
Laws analysis and choice
Today is an example of why records are sometimes not super predictable for future results. In the bubble, the Blazers are 6-2 with the seventh ranked Net Rating of +2.1. The Grizzlies are 2-6, but their Net Rating is just 11th at -0.4. The difference between these teams is not as drastic as their records suggest.
The Blazers are clearly the more talented team, especially now that they are healthier with Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins back in the rotation. But they have also played offensively a lot over their heads, and that will somehow regress. It could be today.
I think the Blazers will win this and make it into the playoffs, but I’m not sure this spread at -6 should be in their favor. I would love the Grizzlies cover, along with the bottom. The Blazers have actually played a lot in the halfway line, so if efficiency drops, this could be a lower score than expected.
Based on my numbers, I have this game at Blazers -4.3, so there is definitely some value on the Grizzlies side.
Betting Lean: Grizzlies +6, Under 234
[Bet $20+ on the Grizzlies at PointsBet and Win $125 if they make at least one 3-pointer]
