A month after Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo issued her order directing companies to require customers to wear masks, signs are emerging that the new increase in coronavirus in the Houston area may begin to slow.
The improvement is reflected in a number of recent trends: a plateau, then decline, in Texas Medical Center hospitalizations; a drop in the rate of positive diagnostic testing in the metropolitan area; and a downward trajectory in the amount of viral spread in the community. The improvement follows a post-July 4 spike that halted the earlier momentum.
“It appears that we are turning around, that distancing and wearing of masks are taking effect and slowing down transmission,” said William McKeon, CEO of the medical center. “We still have a long way to go, but at least we were not heading in the cataclysmic direction we were a few weeks ago.”
Dr. Marc Boom, president of the Houston Methodist, added that it has been a “good solid week of encouraging data, but the $ 64,000 question is, can we hold it? We had the numbers going in the right direction before Valentine’s Day.” Fallen just to see things get worse. “
Things got worse to the point that people started calling Houston the next New York City. The area’s medical emergency response agency reported difficulties transferring patients needing care to Houston-area hospitals. And some medical center facilities were hospitalizing patients in their emergency departments for 24 hours or more due to a lack of available beds. In addition, the medical center implemented the first phase of its augmentation plan and warned that it was approaching crisis levels.
On June 19, Hidalgo issued his mask requirement, and two weeks later Governor Greg Abbott ordered a similar one for most counties.
But the two officials continue to disagree on the need for another order to stay home. The former was highly damaging to the Texas economy, but was widely recognized for keeping the spread of the virus under control.
The number of cases grew steadily after Abbott began reopening the economy on May 1. The cases skyrocketed particularly after Memorial Day and on the weekends of July 4. The governor’s current order prevents local leaders from issuing a new order to stay home.
Signs of improvement in the Houston area contrasted with another difficult day for the state, which recorded more than 10,000 new cases and 157 deaths on Tuesday. The death toll is the second most in the state since the pandemic began.
Dr. James McDeavitt, dean of clinical affairs at Baylor, said Tuesday that he believes recent trends in the Houston area are encouraging enough that “we do not need additional measures to slow the economy.” I don’t think we have to do anything different right now. “
“The order of the masks, the closure of bars and the restrictions on restaurants, the work already done and the fact that the public has finally recognized this is a serious problem and has begun to take on the masking and social distancing more in seriously and overall it’s having the desired effect. ” McDeavitt said. “I think we should start to see that things really do improve in the next two weeks.”
One reason for optimism from local medical leaders: McDeavitt and others cited a 2.2 percent decrease in hospitalizations at medical facilities in the past seven days. And after seven consecutive weeks of an increasing number of hospitalizations for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, these numbers have now decreased in the past two weeks.
For example, admissions have decreased at Houston Methodist and Memorial Hermann Health System, the Houston-area hospital chains that have treated the majority of COVID-19 patients. The Hermann Memorial census was Tuesday 923, down from 980 a week ago. Methodist was 733 on Tuesday, up from 766 on July 13.
The improvement in COVID-19 positive test rate at the medical center has been less pronounced, but at least it is on the downward slope. The percentage of people who tested positive increased from five in mid-May to 23 on July 9. Since then, it has dropped to 19 percent.
Viral spread
The greatest enthusiasm for the idea that COVID-19 has peaked in the Houston area are estimates of the current amount of viral spread in the region.
These estimates track the number of people to whom each person infected with the virus transmits it: more than one and the virus spreads exponentially, less than one and spreads. If each person transmits the virus to one person, the numbers remain essentially the same.
According to new estimates produced at Baylor, the number increased for seven consecutive days, from .94 on July 6 to 1.47 on July 13. Since then, it has declined for seven consecutive days to .81 on Monday.
Chris Amos, the Baylor professor of quantitative science who did the work, said that if Houston is able to maintain that rate for three months, there would be only 7 percent of cases in the area now. At four months, there would be only 3 percent more. He said he is not optimistic that the area could drop the rate below .80 without an order to stay home.
“The improvement in numbers reflects better behavior for our population, which we must continue to ensure that our children can safely return to school in the fall,” said Amos. “Wearing masks when you’re out, which contributes to lower transmission, is a very easy thing to do.”
Darrell Pile, CEO of the Southeast Texas Regional Advisory Council, noted, however, that “the virus continues to be fiercely with us and at levels unthinkable.” Any relaxation can cause a new spike, Pile said.
McKeon said it is important for people to develop the mindset that the virus will exist for a long time.
“We can only continue to drop the numbers, ten times more than they are now, if people adopt appropriate behavior as a long-term strategy,” said McKeon.
“This is war. People must sacrifice for the good of the community by wearing a mask and practicing social distancing, not just weekly or monthly, but until the virus is eliminated.”
