Is Earth really in danger of an asteroid impact in November? Here’s what we know

HOUSTON – It’s 2020, year of all things terrible, so it should come as no surprise that on top of global pandemics and murder horns, there’s an asteroid that scientists see that many people on the internet have been talking about.

However, before you start packing your go-bags and finding sealed, underground shelter, there are a few things you need to know about asteroid 2018 VP1.

How long has it been?

The asteroid was first observed on Nov. 3. 2018, and has not been seen since November 16, 2018, according to scientific data.

What is it?

According to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the asteroid is classified as a NEA or Near-Earth Asteroid. Each object classified in the category is placed in one of four groups. The 2018 VP1 is placed in the group ‘Apollo’, which means that it has an orbit that is larger than Earth, but also crosses with the Earth’s orbit.

You can see a diagram here.

How big is the asteroid?

Data show that the asteroid is about 0.002 km in diameter, which equates to about 6.6 feet.

Is it on Earth?

The asteroid has not been seen since November 2018, and even then scientists only had about 12 days to observe it and collect as much data as possible.

Scientists may know exactly where Earth lies in its orbit, but because of the short observation period and its long absence of observation, it is difficult to predict everything with 100% certainty.

That being said, astronomers were able to give a compelling estimate of when and where 2018 VP1 will cross the Earth’s orbit and if it will affect the planet.

According to their calculations, the asteroid has a .41% chance of hitting Earth. This means that there is a 1 in 240 chance that it will make an impact as a 99.95% chance that the Earth will miss.

You can go online for more data or look at the Summary of Impact Risks for VP1 2018.