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Justice Amy Coney Barrett reacts when President of the United States, Donald Trump, presents her as his candidate for Associate Justice of the Supreme Court
Source: Gripas Yuri / ABACA via PA Images
US PRESIDENT DONALD Trump chose Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and sent the nomination to the Senate in hopes of quick confirmation less than 40 days before the presidential election.
Republicans expect a vote in late October, though Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has not yet said with certainty whether the final vote will take place before or after the Nov.3 election.
A confirmation vote so close to the presidential election would be unprecedented and create significant political risk and uncertainty for both parties. Early voting is underway in some states in the race for the White House and control of Congress.
Here’s a look at the confirmation process and what we know and don’t know about what’s to come:
Who is Amy Coney Barrett?
Barrett has been a federal judge in Indiana since 2017, when Trump nominated her to the Chicago-based US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit.
She was previously a law professor at the University of Notre Dame and was a secretary to the late Justice Antonin Scalia, whom she called her “mentor” when she accepted Trump’s nomination yesterday.
At the age of 48, she would be the youngest judge on the current court if confirmed.
Barrett’s three-year court record shows a clear and consistent conservative lean.
She is a committed Roman Catholic and a staunch devotee of Scalia’s favorite interpretation of the Constitution known as originalism.
Republicans have widely praised her, while Democrats fear her votes could undermine the Roe v Wade decision that legalizes abortion and erodes health care protections. They argue that their philosophy is too conservative and rigid.
What happens next?
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham said her panel will hold four days of confirmation hearings during the week of Oct. 12.
Once the committee approves the nomination, it goes to the full Senate for a final vote. All of this could happen on November 3 if the process goes smoothly.
Graham said he hopes the committee can move the nomination to the Senate by the week of Oct. 26 for a confirmation vote.
Barrett is expected to make his first appearance on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, meeting with McConnell, Graham and other members.
Will there be a vote before the elections?
Republicans are privately targeting a final vote in the last week of October, but they acknowledge the tight schedule and say they will need to see how the hearings go.
McConnell has been careful not to say when he thinks the final confirmation vote will take place, other than “this year.”
Senate Republicans are aware of their last confirmation fight in 2018, when Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations of a teenage sexual assault nearly derailed Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination.
The process took longer than expected after Republicans agreed to Ford testifying.
Kavanaugh, who denied the allegations, was ultimately confirmed by a 50-48 vote.
President Donald Trump announces Amy Coney Barrett, 48, as his candidate for Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court during a ceremony in the Rose Garden of the White House.
Source: Rod Lamkey via PA Images
Does the Senate have enough votes to move forward and confirm?
McConnell appears to have the votes, for now.
Republicans control the Senate by a 53-47 margin, which means it could lose up to three Republican votes and still confirm a judge, if Vice President Mike Pence broke a 50-50 tie.
At this point, McConnell appears to have lost the support of two Republicans: Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who have said they do not believe the Senate should take over the nomination before the election.
Collins has said the next president should take the court seat, and she will vote “no” on principle for Trump’s nominee.
Can Democrats stop the vote?
There is not much they can do.
Republicans are in charge and set the rules, and they appear to have the votes for Trump’s nominee, at least for now.
Democrats have vowed to oppose the nomination and are likely to use a variety of delaying tactics. However, none of those efforts can stop the nomination.
But Democrats will also present the case against the nomination to voters, as the confirmation battle extends into the final weeks, and perhaps even the final days, of election season.
They say that the protection of health care and abortion rights are at stake, arguing that the Republicans’ promise to move forward is “hypocrisy” after McConnell refused to consider President Barack Obama’s candidate, Judge Merrick. Garland, several months before the 2016 election.
How does the campaign influence?
Republicans are defending 25 of the 38 Senate seats on the ballot this year, and many of their vulnerable members were eager to end the fall session and return home to campaign.
The Senate was originally scheduled for a recess in mid-October, when hearings are now expected to begin.
While some senators running for re-election, like Collins, have opposed an immediate vote, others are using it to bolster their position with the Conservatives.
Several Republican senators in competitive races this year, including Cory Gardner in Colorado, Martha McSally in Arizona, Kelly Loeffler in Georgia and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, quickly joined Trump, calling for a quick vote.
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How long does it usually take to confirm a Supreme Court judge?
Nominations to the Supreme Court have taken about 70 days to pass through the Senate, although Kavanaugh’s latest has taken longer and others have taken less.
The elections are less than 40 days away.
United States Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell speaking Tuesday
Source: SIPA USA / PA Images via PA Images
Could the Senate fill the vacancy after the election?
Yes.
Republicans could still vote for Trump’s nominee in what’s known as the lame duck session that takes place after the November election and before the next Congress takes office on January 3.
No matter what happens in this year’s election, Republicans are expected to be in charge of the Senate during that period.
The Senate would have until January 20, the date of the presidential inauguration, to act on the Trump candidate.
If Trump were re-elected and Barrett had not been confirmed by the inauguration, he could rename her as soon as his second term began.
Didn’t McConnell say in 2016 that the Senate shouldn’t celebrate Supreme Court votes in a presidential election year?
He did.
McConnell shocked Washington in the hours after Justice Antonin Scalia’s death in February 2016 when he announced that the Senate would not vote on Obama’s potential nominee because voters should have their say when choosing the next president.
McConnell’s strategy paid off, in a real way, for his party. Obama nominated Garland for the job, but he never received a hearing or vote. Shortly after his inauguration, Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to fill Scalia’s job.
So what has changed since 2016?
McConnell says this time is different because the Senate and the presidency are in the hands of the same party, which was not the case when a vacancy with Obama was opened in 2016.
It was a rationale McConnell laid out during the 2016 fight, and other Republican senators have invoked it this year in supporting a vote on Trump’s nominee.
Democrats say this reasoning is ridiculous and that the vacancy should be kept open until after inauguration.
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