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Donald Trump’s false claim to have won the US presidential election and also his accusations of fraud while millions of votes remain to be counted has once again focused attention on one of the great uncertainties of the 2020 race: when will we know the result?
It could take days, weeks, or even months, depending on what happens.
What usually happens?
Presidential elections in the United States are not won by the national popular vote. The winner in each state collects their votes from the electoral college and needs a total of 270 to take the White House.
You can follow the results here:
In most elections, the result is clear, though not officially confirmed, by the end of the night. Major US media outlets “call” each state for one of the candidates based on their estimate of the tally data. While not based on the results of the final vote count, that projection is almost always accurate.
(Note: The Irish Times is working with the AP to obtain their results data.)
This means that an accurate count of the electoral college votes can be performed and a winner declared before the count is complete. In 2016, that happened at 2.30 a.m. in Washington when Trump hit the required 270.
Why isn’t that happening this time?
Mainly due to the Covid-19 pandemic, a large number of voters – around 68 percent of the total, compared to 34 percent in 2016 – cast their votes early, including by mail.
Counting of votes by mail is slower because the signatures and addresses of voters and witnesses must be verified, and the ballots must be smoothed before being fed into the counting machines. Some states begin that verification process well before Election Day, which means that the count itself can begin as soon as the polls close. Others, however, do not allow it.
What states are we talking about?
Five states have yet to be called: Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Several news organizations, including the Associated Press and Fox News’ decision department, have called Arizona for Joe Biden. However, the Trump campaign contends that call was made too early.
Alaska will finish in the Republican column with almost certainty.
The race is extremely close in Georgia. At 7am (Irish time) on Friday, Trump was leading by just 1,202 votes, meaning both candidates were virtually tied for the state, at 49.4 percent each. An estimated 16,000 votes remained to be counted.
The Democratic challenger is ahead in Nevada, with only Democratic-leaning late postal ballots left to count. But under state law, Election Day postmarked ballots can be counted as long as they are received before 5:00 p.m. on Nov. 10, which means that in-state counting could continue through the weekend. .
In North Carolina, although Trump is the clear favorite, the state accepts postal ballots until November 12, although that is expected to make little difference.
Also at 7 a.m. (Irish time), there were about 250,000 ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, where Biden is below 49,000 votes. It has been winning the mail-in ballot count by huge margins and could well take over the state. Pennsylvania officials say they expect a majority of the votes to be counted Friday.
What else is complicating things?
About half of all states will accept mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked no later than November 3, so postal delays can mean that some ballots are not processed until Days Later: Pennsylvania has said the results will not be considered complete until Friday’s deadline.
There has also reportedly been an increase in the number of provisional votes cast by people who applied for a vote by mail but then decided to go to the polling station in person. These need a careful review to make sure no one has voted twice.
The great unknown: a disputed result
In the 2000 race, the Democratic candidate, Al Gore, lost Florida by just over 500 votes out of a total of almost 6 million, costing him the election. After a disputed recount and a Supreme Court ruling, George W Bush was declared the winner.
More than 300 lawsuits have already been filed for alleged violations of electoral law in the 2020 elections, according to reports, and more can be expected over allegations of irregularities in voting by mail and changes in voting rules due to the pandemic. .
Trump and his campaign have already sued this week to stop the counting of votes in Pennsylvania and Georgia (which have not yet been summoned by the Associated Press) and Michigan, which the AP asked Biden for. Judges in Georgia and Michigan quickly dismissed the campaign’s lawsuits Thursday.
The Trump campaign has also requested a recount in Wisconsin, which the AP requested from Biden.
There is no evidence that the campaign’s legal challenges influence the outcome of the elections under the law. – Tutor service
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