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This weekend, the European Union and the United Kingdom exceeded the latest deadline set to agree on a commercial relationship that must be in place in less than two weeks to avoid the interruption of trade of billions of euros.
When is the true last moment to reach an agreement?
The only iron deadline is December 31st. Britain’s currently favorable terms with the EU will end after that day and cannot be extended, as London declined its last chance to apply for an extension this summer.
However, the talks cannot last until midnight on New Year’s Eve without risking a de facto no-deal. This is because after an agreement is signed, there are steps that must be taken before it can go into effect.
In Britain, this process is shorter, requiring only a vote in Westminster plus the preparation required by customs, etc. In the EU, the agreement must be translated into different languages, scrutinized by national governments and MEPs, and then voted on in the European Parliament. .
It may also need to be ratified in national parliaments, although member state governments could choose to skip this step if they unanimously agree to it. And due to time constraints, this could only take place after January 1.
MEPs initially demanded that the deal be agreed by the end of October, to allow for proper scrutiny and also to give citizens and businesses time to prepare for the changes it will introduce.
Last week the ultimatum came: Party leaders in the European Parliament issued a statement saying they would refuse to vote on a deal if it arrived after midnight Brussels time on Sunday 20 December.
However, the talks are expected to continue on Monday, December 21. So what does that mean?
If an agreement is reached early on Monday, the European Parliament may be able to make a concession and go ahead with a pencil vote for the week of December 28.
If he refuses, national governments have the power to decide provisionally to implement a deal as of January 1 without the European Parliament taking a vote. MEPs would vote on it later in the month, effectively putting the stamp of approval on what was already in place.
Furious
This would not be politically easy: MEPs would be furious, particularly with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who explicitly promised the European Parliament that she would not allow the provisional implementation of trade agreements without MEPs voting.
But this is unlikely to outweigh the desire of national governments to avoid the severe economic damage that a no-deal would cause.
Whatever happens, a resolution is generally expected to come imminently. The negotiators have families, and the British team has been living with suitcases in Brussels for much longer than the time they packed for. Some had already passed through security at the Eurostar terminal on their way home to London before being summoned back to the negotiating table last week.
They will almost certainly be on their way home before Christmas on Friday, although now that Belgium has suspended travel with the UK, including the Eurostar, they may need to be picked up on a government plane.
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