What was the cost of Level 5 in our economy and health?



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As the country exits the Level 5 restrictions today, health correspondent Fergal Bowers discusses the impact on health services, while economics correspondent Robert Shortt examines the financial consequences.


Fergal bowers

The big question about the Level 5 restrictions, which are being lowered as of today is, was it worth it?

From a health perspective, the figures show that the number of Covid-19 cases decreased, deaths have dropped, and lives have been saved.

Exactly how hard it is to be sure.

But the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) has provided its estimates, which say that between 100-270 deaths have been prevented, along with 130-320 ICU admissions of 800-2,200 hospitalizations.

Overall, NPHET believes the measures prevented between 21,000 and 54,000 cases.

Unlike the monthly and annual economic data, because Level 5 was a unique situation, we have nothing to compare it to, as we have never been in this exact position before.

If Ireland entered the Level 5 lockdown on similar terms going forward, there would be comparable data.

But we can now say that with Tier 5, Ireland missed the target of dropping to 50-100 boxes per day and the R number to 0.5 at the end of November.

Experts will have different views on the reasons for this, but included in the mix is ​​the fact that there was more movement of people this time during the restrictions, more people appeared to be at work, and schools were open.

Outbreaks in private homes also played a role.

Ireland entered level 5 restrictions at midnight on Wednesday, October 21.

That night, 1,167 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 and three more deaths were reported.

There were 314 patients with the virus in the hospital and 34 of them were in the ICU.

We have come a long way since then, with a reduction in the number of daily cases to around 270.

Six weeks later, the number of patients in hospital and ICU with Covid-19 has also dropped a bit.

Compared to the first lockdown, this time during Level 5 restrictions, hospital services continued, but at reduced capacity in certain areas, due to security measures stemming from the virus.

The number of people coming to hospital emergency services was reduced. In addition, overall hospital waiting lists increased slightly.

We know more now about the mental and physical impact of the Level 5 lockdown, with the latest Central Statistics Survey of a sample of more than 1,500 people in November.

More than twice as many people felt discouraged or depressed in November compared to last April.

Slightly more people rated their overall life satisfaction as low in November, compared to April.

People’s perspective on when things can go back to the old way is also long-term.

Almost 40% of people believe it will take 12 months. Even more people (45%) say that it will be between 1 and 2 years before life returns to normal.

Those who drink alcohol say they have consumed more and similarly with junk food and sweets, during the Level 5 crash.

These factors will affect the physical and mental health of some people.

While there has been a high price for Level 5, the CSO found that 71% of people believed the Level 5 response was appropriate.

Any discussion of the price of confinements also includes what someone’s good health or life is worth.

The benefit of Tier 5 is that it reduced the pressure on the overall healthcare system, for Covid-19 and other care, and allowed more time for vaccines to start rolling out.

The true cost of Level 5 from a health perspective cannot be correctly determined at this time, as we simply do not have all the data on the physical and mental impact on people’s lives.

Some of this health impact will not be presented to GPs and hospitals in the coming months.

It deserves a detailed independent analysis, with the benefit of time, when things finally get back to normal.


Robert Shortt

The cost of putting the country under Covid Level 5 restrictions six weeks ago was initially estimated by the Department of Finance at approximately 1.25 billion euros.

This was in addition to the projected budget deficit for this year of € 21.5 billion, announced on budget day in early October.

Estimates have varied since then, but the latest guess is that the cost of Tier 5 could have been more than 1.6 billion euros.

That’s the extra money spent on more people claiming Pandemic Unemployment Pay (PUP) and lower tax income than people who spend and earn less. PUP rates were also reset to their earlier, higher rates when the restrictions were reintroduced.

Level 5 did not have as severe an impact on the economy as the first lockdown in the spring. That’s mainly because more sectors, such as construction, remained open, so more people remained working.

There is a lag with most of the economic data, but we know that the Covid-adjusted unemployment rate (which takes into account those of government support plans) was 15.9% in September and rose to 20.2% By the end of october.

By the middle of last month, the cub’s numbers had stabilized at roughly 350,000. That compares with just under 598,000 at its peak in the week of May 5. By mid-September, just before new restrictions were imposed across the country, it had dropped to 209,000.

However, there are now more workers supported by the Employment Wage Subsidy Plan. That number is now roughly 345,400, with 35,400 employers enrolled in the scheme.

Figures from the Central Bank this week showed that spending on debit and credit cards, as well as withdrawals at ATMs, fell 13% in October following the reintroduction of the restrictions. But in April, spending on cards had fallen 40% to its lowest point.

The spending pattern remains the same with drops of 60% in spending on hotels and transportation, and increases in spending on groceries, hardware and household appliances.

Covid may not discriminate who gets the virus, but its economic impact has been exceptionally severe in the service sector.

These numbers obviously do not capture the frustrations of people who have had to close their restaurants, art venues or have seen their travel business collapse. And they don’t capture the immeasurable value of those whose lives may have been saved.

But what they do tell us is that Covid-19 is a serious and constant threat to livelihoods and everything we once took for granted.



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