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The allure and drama of American politics attracts many and many Irish viewers will stay awake for the biggest American presidential election in decades.
The election takes place on Tuesday, November 3, but due to the time difference it will take place in the early hours of Wednesday, November 4 in Irish time.
While this year’s elections will be further complicated by a historic level of mail-in ballots due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the looming threat of legal challenges to the outcome, there are still a few moments that will be key indicators.
What time can we expect results?
The short answer is that it is not clear.
In many past presidential elections, the result was evident at 11pm EST (4am Irish time), which is when the West Coast polls close.
However, a huge increase in mail-in ballots this year, more than 90 million so far, can delay the result for days or weeks.
Mail-in ballots take longer to process and may arrive after Election Day, provided they are posted before November 3.
If the vote is close enough, there may also be a recount.
If the vote is overwhelmingly in favor of one candidate, we may have a good indication of the winner at 4am Irish time.
Current polls suggest this is unlikely.
The winner is usually confirmed around 6 a.m. M. And 7 a. M., This may be uncertain for several days or weeks, but at least there will be an indication of who is leading by then based on swing statuses.
Swing states
The American electoral system requires that a candidate obtain at least 270 votes from the Electoral College to win.
This is where the so-called ‘swing states’ come into play. These are states that can define a presidential election.
According to most American political analysts, the key states are; Florida (29 electoral college votes) Pennsylvania, which has 20, Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11) and Wisconsin (10).
The candidate who won Florida has gone to the White House in 13 of the last 14 presidential elections.
Florida’s outcome is expected around 8pm EST (1am Irish time) and this will be a great indicator of who will end up in the White House, despite the likelihood of re-counts and legal challenges.
When is the result confirmed?
The result is not confirmed until December, when the Electoral College votes.
However, it is usually clear on election night, when one candidate calls the other to concede.
In 2012, Barack Obama’s victory was confirmed at 11.38pm EST (3.38am Irish time) and when Trump won in 2016 it was confirmed at 2.29am EST (6.29am Irish time).
With polls suggesting a close race this time, and mail-in votes are likely to be a great candidate, neither of us will likely give up tonight unless the outcome is clear.
Trump has repeatedly refused to confirm that he will accept the result, while also declining to dismiss a Supreme Court challenge.
Who will win?
Polls suggest that Biden is ahead of Trump.
A recent survey of The New York Times/ Siena College showed Biden the lead in four key states: Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which were won by the current president in 2016.
The survey is as follows:
Arizona: Biden: 49 / Trump: 43
Florida: Biden: 47 / Trump: 44
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Pennsylvania: Biden: 49 / Trump: 43
Wisconsin: Biden: 52 / Trump: 41
Results like this would almost certainly mean a Biden win.
However, the polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, as most predicted a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016.
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