[ad_1]
The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet), concerned about the increase in Covid-19 cases, recommended that the entire state be moved to the most severe level of restrictions contained in the Government’s five-stage roadmap to combat the disease.
What exactly has Nphet asked the government?
Nphet met yesterday to consider the increase in cases after another 613 were reported on Saturday, the highest number since April. She met to discuss how the virus was spreading and its possible effect on the healthcare system.
The team concluded that the State must go to Level 5, the highest alert level in the Government’s strategy, for four weeks.
This would be a marked escalation in the scale of the response, moving Dublin and Donegal from Level 3 and the rest of the country three from Level 2.
The team meeting was chaired for the first time in three months by Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan, who has just returned after taking temporary leave for family reasons.
What happens at level 5?
This level is the closest to the closure experienced in March, April and early May, when the pandemic was at its worst in the country.
No home visits or social or family gatherings, indoors or outdoors, would be allowed. Only six people could attend a funeral and only ten people can attend a wedding.
Only essential retailers would be allowed to open and people would be advised to stay home and only be able to exercise within 5km of their homes.
Public transport capacity would be reduced to 25% and people would be advised to avoid buses, trams and trains except for essential purposes.
You cannot hold meetings or sporting events organized indoors or outdoors. Bars, pubs, cafes and restaurants would only be allowed to sell take out or deliver food and drink. All museums, galleries and other cultural attractions would be closed.
The main difference between a Level 5 closure and the first full closure is that schools, daycare centers and adult and higher education facilities would remain open, albeit with protective measures in place.
How serious would this move be?
It would lead to very significant changes in life in Ireland. It would mean cutting off contact with anyone outside of your home. There would be no more gatherings than small amounts at funerals and weddings.
In counties other than Dublin and Donegal, it would mean 44 fewer people at weddings and funerals than is currently allowed. It would result in the closure of all but essential businesses, putting more people out of work again in businesses deemed nonessential.
It would be one of the most severe measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 since the first government blockade began to be lifted almost five months ago.
Why has Nphet reached this point of view?
All of the metrics used to track the disease have risen dramatically in recent weeks, as infections have risen as a result of increased contacts between members of the public.
In the past month, the five-day average of cases went from 99 to 463 a day, a nearly five-fold increase.
The number of cases over 14 days has more than tripled from 31 per 100,000 people nationwide to 108.9 per 100,000. Some individual counties have fared worse.
Dublin’s rate has risen from 53.1 cases per 100,000 a month ago to 172.8 cases over the weekend. Outside of Dublin there have been alarming increases: Donegal’s rate has gone from 18.8 per 100,000 cases to 257.6 and Monaghan’s from 37.5 per 100,000 to 189 during the same period.
The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 on September 3 was 40. That number last night was 141, a more than triple increase. The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital intensive care units has risen from seven a month ago to 21.
There were 924 family outbreaks of the virus in September, compared with 530 in August.
Most significantly, Covid-19 related deaths have started to rise. There were 31 deaths reported by Nphet in September compared to 18 in August. There were 10 other deaths reported on Saturday, although eight of them occurred before September.
Will the government now accept Nphet’s recommendation?
Not necessarily. The Covid-19 oversight group, which is made up of the state’s highest-ranking public officials, will consider Nphet’s recommendation before it goes to cabinet. After that process, the Government may decide to take more limited measures based not only on public health advice, but also on the social and economic impact of the measures.
What happens next then?
It is difficult to say. Nphet’s recommendation took members of the government by surprise last night, with some privately commenting on how difficult it would be to sell another effective blockade to a public exhausted by Covid-19 restrictions in the past six months.
The government must not only weigh the public health councils and the risks to the health of the people and the hospital system, but also the effect of new restrictions on society and the economy.
[ad_2]