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Former Britain’s ambassador to the European Union, Ivan Rogers, predicted that Britain will abandon the post-Brexit transition later this year without a deal, describing Boris Johnson as a Trumpist politician who wants the EU to fail.
Johnson and his team persuaded themselves that the EU would be so scared that they would eventually give in. And it didn’t happen. I think Boris didn’t start out as a true non-trader, but now he seems formally in the field with Dominic Cummings: ‘Fuck it all, we should go,’ “Sir Ivan told The Irish Times.
“He has a fairly Trumpist method; He was always fascinated by Trump and his strategy to take the other side by surprise and destabilize it. “
Sir Ivan resigned as ambassador to the EU in January 2017 after a leaked memo revealed his pessimism about Theresa May’s prospects for negotiating a trade deal with Brussels. Since her retirement, she has criticized Britain’s handling of the negotiations with both May and Johnson.
“The UK’s conduct of this set of negotiations has been, if anything, even more depressing than the UK’s conduct of the previous set of negotiations, even in August by demanding negotiating sessions and then having nothing new to say in they”. he said.
“The EU will say it tried to reach a deal, but the UK never accepted the obvious automatic consequences of leaving the customs union and the single market, they better now see and experience those consequences and need a period of calm while they realize how difficult it will be as a third country without any preferential agreement.
“On the British side, if we have done this deliberately, Johnson will shoot for the people to support him, it will be comprehensive, a story every day in the press about resisting the humiliation imposed, ‘we are not going to be treated like this by the empire of the evil ‘. It will be unpleasant. “
Concessions
Johnson’s UK internal market bill, which violates international law by breaching parts of the withdrawal agreement, has pushed the negotiations into the most serious crisis to date. The EU has made clear that passing the legislation will make a deal impossible, but has failed to stop the talks.
“Europeans are never going to walk because they are not going to give them that pleasure. If he wants to walk and wants to interrupt the conversations, he will have to do it himself, ”said Sir Ivan.
“I think infringement procedures will start immediately after the UK fails to meet the September 30 deadline. [for the bill to be withdrawn]I don’t think they have many options. I don’t think it’s very helpful. I don’t know if then Johnson will magnify that as another threat from the European Union, the empire of evil. But I think that when we do not withdraw the bill or modify it on September 30, the EU will think that it has to do something visible and the [European] The Commission will start infringement procedures. “
While some in Europe expect Johnson to make some last-minute concessions before reaching a deal and declaring victory, Sir Ivan believes it is wrong to underestimate the depth of the prime minister’s dislike for the European political project.
“I know that many commentators from all countries think that Johnson is unprincipled at all. To some extent that’s true, but he’s a hardliner Brexit supporter and he wants a divergent Brexit in the mid-Atlantic, he wants regulatory autonomy, and so I think he will support Dominic Cummings’ view on state aid. He’s not a low-tax, low-spending classic, Thatcherite Conservative, far from it, ”he said.
“Johnson wants the EU to ideally fail – he thinks it’s a wrong turn, not just for the UK but for the whole continent. Cummings wants, I think, a repeat of last year. He wants culture wars, a fight against the House of Lords, against the judiciary. Is not stupid. He knows that he cannot easily sell a small free trade agreement as a triumph and that the British public will see in January and beyond the damage that has been done to the economy.
“So he asks: why go there? No deal can be a little worse, but at least you can portray it as the fault of the EU. The line would be that all we ask for is what they gave to Canada. It’s not true, but it sounds plausible. “
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