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The government is likely not to announce any further easing of restrictions, beyond the gradual return of schools in early March, next week after the state’s public health team warned of a plateau in the fight against Covid- 19.
The Level 5 restrictions will remain in effect through April with strict measures until early May, the sources said after a meeting of the Covid-19 cabinet committee.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) was “very, very cautious in its presentation” to the committee, according to sources, who said the gradual reopening of schools was “over the limit of what they can support.”
Nphet is unlikely to support a disputed reopening of construction, while hopes that outdoor sports can resume and people can gather outdoors have also been dashed. A senior source said it was now “out of the question” that restrictions would be eased to allow people to gather outdoors.
The sources said the Cabinet subcommittee will recommend that schools begin phasing out in early March, but the current Level 5 restrictions will remain unchanged.
The plan is expected to include a gradual reopening of schools. This would see young children to the second class in the first reopening phase, and the third to the sixth in the second phase a few weeks later. In high school, this would see sixth graders return first, followed by third / fifth graders a few weeks later and the remainder, possibly in April, according to sources.
Time between phases
Nphet wants to see a gradual, cautious and slow return to the classroom, with time remaining between phases so the impact can be assessed, Assistant Medical Director Ronan Glynn said at a news conference last night. He urged people not to take the partial reopening of schools as a sign that mobility or coexistence between households was once again acceptable.
It is understood that the ministers pressed Nphet on how much more the Level 5 measures might be necessary and, although a date was not given, government sources now believe that this level of restrictions will be necessary “for the foreseeable future”, in March and beyond.
Government officials will continue to work on an updated version of the Living with Covid-19 plan before another meeting next Monday. Sources have warned that it will not contain dates for the reopening of the economy and society. Pandemic wellness supports are likely to last until at least the end of the second quarter of the year.
The vaccine working group also made a presentation that was described as “hopeful.” Ministers were informed that between 1.2 and 1.3 million doses per month would be administered in the second quarter.
Professor Philip Nolan, Chairman of Nphet’s Epidemiological Models Advisory Group, at a press conference on Covid-19 at the Department of Health. Photograph: Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie
Revised upward
Nphet last night revised its forecast for the downward projection of daily cases upwards. Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of Nphet’s epidemiological modeling advisory group, predicted between 400 and 500 cases a day by March 1 and between 200 and 350 by mid-March, assuming there will be no further change in breeding numbers.
Professor Nolan said more progress is being made in reducing infections, but the rate has slowed. This is ‘almost certain’ due to the B117 variant which was first identified in the UK and now accounts for 90 per cent of Irish cases.
The positivity of the test has stalled at around 6 percent over the past 10 days, higher than during the October surge, he said.
“People are trying as hard as they can, they are succeeding, but collectively they find it harder,” he said.
Describing the situation as precarious, he urged people to resist the tendency to mix more. Disease levels were still very high and needed to be reduced further. Another 47 deaths of Covid-19 patients and 901 cases were reported Thursday.
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