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Thousands of additional hospital beds will be needed by the end of January in the event of a significant increase in Covid-19 transmission, a new report to the government has warned.
“The system and those who work in it are on the verge of their capacity to recover,” according to the analysis of the state of the health system prepared by the HSE and the Department of Health.
If the virus reproductive number rises to 1.8, 610 intensive care beds and 3,900 general acute beds would be needed by the end of January, he says.
The reproductive number, a measure of how much the disease is transmitted in the community, is currently approaching 1, according to public health officials.
They described the current situation as stable, 10 days after the Level 5 restrictions were eased, but cautioned that things remain fragile until a vaccine arrives.
While mobility has increased, this was not yet associated with an increase in close contacts, showing that people were behaving cautiously, officials from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) said Thursday night. .
Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of Nphet’s epidemiological modeling advisory group, said there was a “big difference” between a reproduction number of 1.1 and one of 1.4, but that could be because people only have one additional contact per day.
‘Extra cautious’
There remains a “high risk” of another increase unless the breeding number stays close to 1, he warned, urging people to be “more cautious” and limit their contacts.
The epidemiological situation remains worrying … Therefore, we must continue our efforts to counter the spread of the virus in order to prevent new waves of infections.
But there was “nothing unavoidable” about a large increase in cases in January if this advice was followed.
The flu is not currently circulating in the community, easing pressure on hospitals, the HSE said.
Another 15 coronavirus-related deaths were reported Thursday, 10 of which date from this month. 310 more cases were also reported.
EU leaders warned on Thursday that measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 must be maintained to prevent further waves of infection before vaccines can be implemented.
“The arrival of vaccines does not mean that the pandemic is over,” read a joint statement by the 27 national leaders when they met in Brussels to coordinate how to implement the vaccines.
“The epidemiological situation remains worrying … Therefore, we must continue our efforts to counter the spread of the virus in order to prevent new waves of infections.”
Rates remain high across the continent, with almost all of Europe marked “red” on the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control’s traffic light map, with rare exceptions in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Ireland.
EU leaders agreed to coordinate preparations for “a gradual lifting of restrictions and a return to normal travel … when the health situation allows.”
Gardaí said they have started imposing fines on people who refuse to wear masks, almost seven weeks after the new crimes were created.
Since Monday, when the refusal to use face covers was added to the Fixed Charge Notification (FCN) system, three people have received fines throughout the Republic.
However, members of the force still cannot impose fines on people who celebrate parties at home.
Change
The IT changes required to add house parties to the FCN system are not complete. Furthermore, because the provisions are so complex and unprecedented, Garda headquarters have told gardaí to bring any house party case to the DPP for advice rather than handling it themselves with fines, as intended by the government.
Sixty cases of Covid-19 were detected in schools last week after mass testing, up from 38 the previous week, the latest HSE data shows.
Updated figures from the government data center show the 14-day incidence rate in Carndonagh, Co Donegal, at 518.7 per 100,000 population. The figure in the city of Inishowen has more than doubled from last week (271.2) and is almost 6.5 times the national rate of 80.2 per 100,000 residents.
The second worst affected by the broadcast, according to the figures, is Letterkenny, Co Donegal, with a rate of 322.2, up from 288.7 last week after falling, followed by Claremorris, Co Mayo, which was stands at 257.9.
Callan / Thomastown in Co Kilkenny has a rate of 232.7.
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