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THE GOVERNMENT HAS pinned its hopes on Level 3 restrictions halting the rise in Covid-19 cases across the country.
He has made the decision to move almost the entire country up one level, rather than the jump to Level 5 recommended by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet).
Part of the government’s argument for going against Nphet was that Level 3 restrictions were working in Dublin. Both Health Minister Stephen Donnelly and Transport Minister Eamon Ryan referred to the capital last night as part of their reasoning.
“We want to see that Level Three measures have a chance, and the signs in Dublin are that that may be possible,” Ryan said.
So what has happened in Dublin so far under Level 3?
Last week, health officials shared some cautious optimism that the Covid-19 image in Dublin is improving, but cautioned nonetheless that no sustained improvement has yet been shown.
In terms of population, Dublin only accounts for 28.4% of the people living in this country, which means that the county is likely to always have a large number of Covid-19 cases at any given time if the virus is active throughout the country.
Despite this, even per capita, Dublin had seen the highest incidence of Covid-19 for a period.
Nearly four weeks ago, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ronan Glynn directly appealed to Dubliners to limit their contacts, saying the county was seeing an average of 104 new cases every day.
At the time, Glynn noted that the capital had a 14-day incidence rate of 78 cases per 100,000 residents. Later that week, the incidence rate had increased further and Dublin moved to Level 3 on September 17.
On that day, the Health Protection Surveillance Center (HPSC) report had an incidence rate of 14 days for Dublin in 114 per 100,000, clearly ahead of the county’s second (Louth) in 92.
The 14-day incidence rate nationwide at that time was 59, so Dublin had almost double that number.
The image when Dublin went to level 3 on September 17.
Source: hpsc.ie
In the weeks that followed, the landscape changed enormously, and Nphet made it clear that the spread of Covid-19 was becoming a national problem. In his letter to the government on Sunday, Dr. Tony Holohan, medical director, said that “the national profile of the disease was now Nphet’s main concern.”
In the week after Dublin was moved to Level 3, Waterford, Leitrim, Louth, Donegal, Offaly, Wicklow, Limerick and Roscommon counties were verified to have a 14-day incidence rate above or near 80. Subsequently , Donegal was moved to Level 3.
Speaking last Wednesday, Glynn said he was “optimistic” that the figures in Dublin were stabilizing, but cautioned that it was still too early to say anything definitive.
“I fully appreciate the need for certainty. But what I would say is that the measures that were implemented last Friday for Dublin, would only go into effect yesterday, today, tomorrow, ”Glynn said at the time.
But we need to see a significant improvement in the coming days in Dublin and we haven’t seen it yet.
Two days later, the chairman of Nphet’s epidemiological modeling advisory group, Professor Philip Nolan, said the measures in Dublin “may be starting to work”, but it didn’t go beyond that.
The latest HPSC data released yesterday shows that Dublin’s 14-day incidence has increased over the past three weeks, but at a much slower rate relative to the rest of the country.
Dublin no longer has the highest incidence rate in 14 days, with Donegal and Monaghan ahead of the capital, and places like Roscommon and Longford are also not far behind.
The national picture from midnight on Sunday.
Source: hpsc.ie
Significantly during that three-week period, the 14-day national incidence rate has nearly doubled since 59 to 114, while Dublin has increased by less than half since 114 to 167.
Therefore, Dublin has not reduced transmission in the last three weeks, but the rate of increase has certainly slowed, a fact the Health Minister wanted to press on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland today.
“What we were seeing was very, very rapid growth in Dublin and what we are seeing now, and this is confirmed by the analysis that was shown to us yesterday, is a stabilization in Dublin,” he said.
Donnelly added, however, that we need these efforts to continue:
However, what we have to see is that the virus is suppressed. So the virus is at several hundred a day and it stays there, that’s not a medium-term option that works for anyone living in Dublin, or even the rest of the country.
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Donnelly also spoke this morning about what were “essentially Level 3” blockades at Kildare, Laois and Offaly that had the desired effect in August.
Glynn also referenced this last week, noting that these and other counties had “turned a negative trajectory around.”
However, he noted that the Dublin image has “no obvious target” to focus on, complicating the answer. At Kildare, Laois and Offaly meat plants were a common source of bunches.
“It’s still very dispersed (in Dublin) across a wide range of different environments, which on the one hand is good news that we don’t have large clusters, on the other hand it makes it harder to control,” Glynn said. .
In his letter to the government on Sunday, Holohan made no specific reference to Dublin and whether he felt Level 3 had worked, saying only that he felt a “gradual approach” would not sufficiently suppress the virus on a national scale.
That question will likely be asked of the CMO when he gives his first media briefing since returning to his post.
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